Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

October 07, 2026 at 01:17 PM

Completed At

October 07, 2026 at 01:18 PM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

Can Gold Price Support Hold as Treasury Yields Keep Rising?

Data Preview

{
  "title": "Can Gold Price Support Hold as Treasury Yields Keep Rising?",
  "filter": {
    "keywords": [],
    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
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    "semantic_filter": true
  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@StoneX_Official",
    "title": "StoneX",
    "handle": "stonex_official",
    "channel_id": "UC5a8rKMaVmaViwJvmCMl-1Q"
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  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "A weekly close below the critical support zone (4096-4103) would open up potential for a retest of yearly lows.",
      "Rallies would need to be limited to the 4230 level for the bearish outlook to remain intact."
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Gold",
      "Technical Analysis",
      "Support and Resistance",
      "Fibonacci Retracements",
      "Trendlines",
      "Federal Reserve",
      "Interest Rates",
      "Treasury Yields"
    ],
    "summary": "Gold has dropped to a 9-week low, poised for a sixth weekly decline out of seven, testing critical support zones around 4096-4103. The near-term outlook remains bearish, with a break below this support potentially leading to a retest of yearly lows around 3942. Gold faces significant headwinds from rising Treasury yields and the expectation of further Fed rate hikes by year-end, making rallies vulnerable to resistance at 4230 and 4319.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "Michael Boutros",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Senior Market Analyst at StoneX"
      },
      {
        "name": "StoneX",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Employer of the speaker"
      },
      {
        "name": "Gold",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "The primary focus of the analysis"
      },
      {
        "name": "Fed",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Monetary policy influence on gold"
      },
      {
        "name": "Treasury Yields",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Headwind for gold"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "bearish",
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "Gold has dropped to a 9-week low.",
        "timestamp": "00:13",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Gold is poised to mark a sixth out of seven weeks down if it closes lower on this session.",
        "timestamp": "00:17",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Gold is dropping to a critical support zone right into the start of October trade.",
        "timestamp": "00:22",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The 786 retracement of the advance off the yearly low for gold gives you 4103.",
        "timestamp": "00:27",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "A parallel ascending slope we've been tracking since 2024, extending off the May 2025 low, is also converging on this very spot.",
        "timestamp": "00:33",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "A break below this zone, a weekly close below this zone, would open up the potential for a retest of the yearly lows.",
        "timestamp": "00:49",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The uptrend from July was broken last month, right into the tail end of the month on the 25th, which fueled that next leg lower in price.",
        "timestamp": "01:03",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The 100% extension of that decline off the August high gives you 4096.",
        "timestamp": "01:20",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Initial resistance for gold comes in at the 618 retracement of the advance off the yearly low, that's right at 4230.",
        "timestamp": "01:32",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The broader near-term outlook still remains weighted to the downside.",
        "timestamp": "01:46",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The bears may be vulnerable while above this lateral level.",
        "timestamp": "01:49",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "A downside break would fuel a decline towards the low day close for the year, the July open gives you 4007.",
        "timestamp": "02:24",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Beyond 4007, you're looking at the late October low day close near 3951, and the actual swing lows for the year come in right at 3942.",
        "timestamp": "02:34",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "If Gold is heading lower on this slope, rallies would need to really be limited to that 4230 level, which is the 618 retracement and the objective monthly range high.",
        "timestamp": "02:51",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "A close above 4230 would certainly give you a topside break of the initial October opening range and offer a larger rally.",
        "timestamp": "03:02",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The yearly open and the 50% retracement off the low is the next level up, and that's at 4319, which would be your next major hurdle for the upside on Gold.",
        "timestamp": "03:10",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Gold has been facing a lot of headwinds, including higher yields, with the 10-year and 30-year continuing to climb.",
        "timestamp": "03:23",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Although markets are not pricing in any Fed rate hike this month, we are still looking at about an 80% probability of at least 25 basis points before year-end.",
        "timestamp": "03:35",
        "importance": "high"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [
      {
        "note": "786 retracement of advance off yearly low",
        "value": "4103",
        "instrument": "Gold",
        "level_type": "support"
      },
      {
        "note": "100% extension of decline off August high",
        "value": "4096",
        "instrument": "Gold",
        "level_type": "support"
      },
      {
        "note": "618 retracement of advance off yearly low, objective monthly range high",
        "value": "4230",
        "instrument": "Gold",
        "level_type": "resistance"
      },
      {
        "note": "Weekly opening range high",
        "value": "4185",
        "instrument": "Gold",
        "level_type": "resistance"
      },
      {
        "note": "Low day close for the year, July open",
        "value": "4007",
        "instrument": "Gold",
        "level_type": "target"
      },
      {
        "note": "Late October low day close",
        "value": "3951",
        "instrument": "Gold",
        "level_type": "target"
      },
      {
        "note": "Actual swing lows for the year",
        "value": "3942",
        "instrument": "Gold",
        "level_type": "support"
      },
      {
        "note": "Yearly open and 50% retracement off the low, next major hurdle",
        "value": "4319",
        "instrument": "Gold",
        "level_type": "resistance"
      }
    ],
    "time_horizon": "short_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "value": "80% for at least 25 basis points",
        "metric": "Fed rate hike probability",
        "period": "before year-end",
        "source": "Markets"
      },
      {
        "value": "continue to climb",
        "metric": "10-year, 30-year",
        "period": "ongoing",
        "source": "Yields"
      }
    ],
    "match_reasoning": "The video provides a detailed technical analysis of gold across multiple timeframes, discussing support and resistance levels, trend breaks, and macro factors influencing its price."
  },
  "video_id": "oPTqnMq5CDg",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPTqnMq5CDg",
  "transcript": "Hey traders, today is Wednesday, October 7th, and I'm Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst with StoneX here for a quick multi-timeframe look at Gold. So it's dropped to a nine-week low, and we're actually poised to mark a sixth out of seven weeks down if we do close lower on this session, with Gold really dropping to a critical support zone right into the start of October trade. The 786 retracement of the advance off the yearly low gives you 4103. Note that we have a parallel here of the same ascending slope we've been tracking since 2024, extending off the May 2025 low, also converging on this very spot. And we're looking to see if this 12.6% loss off the August high has any legs beyond this zone. A break below this zone, a weekly close below this zone, would open up the potential for a retest of the yearly lows. And the weekly opening range is now taking shape right above this spot. Here's what it looks like on the daily chart. You know, we broke that uptrend from July last month, right into the tail end of the month on the 25th, was a very nice formation, and the forma and the break of the uptrend did fuel that next leg lower in price. And that decline is now testing again that 786 retracement 4103. The 100% extension of that decline off the August high gives you 4096. The weekly and monthly opening range is now taking shape right above this spot. Initial resistance comes in at the 618 retracement of the advance off the yearly low, that's right at 4230. And this is basically the focal range break that you're looking for early in October trade for guidance. While the broader near-term outlook still remains weighted to the downside, the bears may be vulnerable while above this lateral level. That's the break you need on a close basis to get the next major fueled leg lower. Here's what it looks like on the four-hour chart. We were tracking this near-term descending consolidation formation. The lower parallel broke last month, and we've been checking it as resistance since. You can see that price action's been very, very clean there. The weekly opening range high is now at 4185. Again, 4096 into 4103 support. We're looking for a breakout of this weekly opening range to offer guidance. A downside break would fuel a decline towards the low day close for the year, the July open gives you 4007. Beyond that, you're looking at the late October low day close near 3951. Remember the actual swing lows for the year come in right at 3942, that same zone. So right now, all things held constant, the focus is on a breakout of this zone. If Gold is heading lower on this slope, rallies would need to really be limited to that 4230 level. That's the 618, that's the objective monthly range high. A break and a close below 4096 would mark resumption. A close above 4230 would certainly give you a topside break of the initial October opening range and offer a larger rally. The yearly open and the 50% retracement off the low is the next level up, and that's at 4319. That would be your next major hurdle for the upside on Gold. So it's really critical here. Now, Gold has been facing a lot of headwinds. Obviously, higher yields, the 10-year, the 30-year continue to climb, even today, putting downside pressure on this. Although markets are not pricing in any Fed rate hike this month, we are still looking at about an 80% probability of at least 25 basis points before year-end. So for Gold, we're fighting a whole swath of headwinds and some tailwinds, but really, the focus is going to be on what happens with this weekly opening range and eventually the monthly opening range for guidance. We get Fed, um, we get Fed minutes later today. Not sure we'll get too much volatility out of that. We've already got a host of head Fed speakers since the last rate decision, so we kind of know where the committee stands, but markets will still be dissecting those minutes for insight on what we should be looking for into the close of the year. We'll keep you updated as always on MB4X. Till then, best of luck trading. We'll see you tomorrow. Cheers.",
  "description": "Gold price support is under test after a 12.6% slide from the August high, as rising Treasury yields add fresh pressure on the precious metal.\n\nMichael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, walks through gold's weekly, daily and four-hour charts and the opening ranges that frame its next breakout.\n\nGold's key support sits where the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the advance off the yearly low meets a trendline in place since 2024. The weekly opening range above that zone sets the breakout trigger, while climbing Treasury yields and upcoming Federal Reserve minutes shape the macro backdrop.\n\nDiscover Actionable Insights with the latest Market Outlook Reports: https://intel.stonex.com/offer?language=en&campaignId=A908C315-DC62-4F35-AC16-870BB71E84D1&utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sxtv_guest_michael_boutros&utm_content=share\n\n00:00 - Gold Lands on Critical Support\n01:00 - July Uptrend Break Fuels Slide\n02:00 - Opening Range Sets the Trigger\n03:23 - Treasury Yields Squeeze Gold\n03:47 - Fed Minutes and a Known Script\n\nLike and subscribe for more financial market insights.\n\n#Gold #StoneX #MichaelBoutros #FederalReserve\n\n---------\n\nLike this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from StoneX: https://www.youtube.com/@stonex_official\n\nVisit https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/thought-leadership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social for insights, perspectives and thought leadership from StoneX's global network of experts.\n\nVisit our website: https://www.stonex.com?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social",
  "match_reason": "No keyword filter configured",
  "published_at": "2026-10-07T13:16:08Z",
  "thumbnail_url": "https://i.ytimg.com/vi/oPTqnMq5CDg/hqdefault.jpg",
  "reporting_date": "2026-10-07",
  "analysis_source": "gemini-2.5-flash",
  "duration_seconds": null,
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  "transcript_available": true
}