Elk Trading - Natural Gas - Run #3908
Reporting Date: 2026-10-05
Completed
Run Details
- State
- Completed
- Started At
- October 05, 2026 at 03:17 PM
- Completed At
- October 05, 2026 at 03:18 PM
- Duration
- 2 minutes
- Headline
- What's New in Natural Gas - November Futures (NGX26 @ 3.041) | 10.05.2026
Data Preview
{
"title": "What's New in Natural Gas - November Futures (NGX26 @ 3.041) | 10.05.2026",
"filter": {
"keywords": [
"natural gas"
],
"match_mode": "any",
"match_fields": [
"title",
"description"
],
"semantic_filter": true
},
"source": "youtube",
"channel": {
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/@ElKTradingCoLLC",
"title": "ELK TRADING Co LLC | Natural Gas Trading",
"handle": "ElKTradingCoLLC",
"channel_id": "UCcvcKcyIO_nhZrRubvfxO3w"
},
"matched": true,
"insights": {
"risks": [
"Crowded short position in the winter strip for natural gas.",
"Iran making rumblings about the Strait of Hormuz, potentially impacting shipping.",
"Potential tropical cyclone development in the Bay of Campeche (Gulf of Mexico) in the next seven days.",
"Golden Pass Pipeline continues to have commissioning problems, which is the worst seen in the United States."
],
"topics": [
"Natural Gas",
"LNG",
"Weather Forecasts",
"Power Grids",
"Nuclear Outages",
"El Nino",
"Geopolitics",
"Oil & Gas E&P Sector"
],
"summary": "The natural gas market is experiencing mixed signals. While some US LNG facilities are ramping up production, others like Freeport and Golden Pass are facing operational issues. European gas storage levels are improving but some countries still lag, and the UK is seeing significant storage injections. Weather forecasts indicate lingering warmth in parts of the US and a mixed bag in Europe and Asia, with a potential tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico adding uncertainty. The overall sentiment is cautious due to these conflicting factors and a crowded short position in the winter strip.",
"entities": [
{
"name": "Timothy Beggs",
"type": "person",
"context": "President of Elk Trading Company"
},
{
"name": "Elk Trading Company LLC",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Speaker's company"
},
{
"name": "Freeport LNG",
"type": "organization",
"context": "LNG facility with operational issues"
},
{
"name": "South Korea",
"type": "region",
"context": "Pushed back against Alaskan LNG investment"
},
{
"name": "Alaska LNG",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Investment project pushed back by South Korea"
},
{
"name": "Chevron",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Expanding global LNG trading through offtakes"
},
{
"name": "Russia",
"type": "region",
"context": "Plague fears after death of researchers"
},
{
"name": "Wuhan",
"type": "region",
"context": "Mentioned in comparison to anti-plague facility"
},
{
"name": "Natural Gas",
"type": "commodity",
"context": "Primary topic of discussion"
},
{
"name": "LNG",
"type": "commodity",
"context": "Liquefied Natural Gas, discussed in terms of exports and global trade"
},
{
"name": "ERCOT",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Texas electricity grid operator"
},
{
"name": "SPP",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Southwest Power Pool, US electricity market"
},
{
"name": "MISO",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Midcontinent Independent System Operator, US electricity market"
},
{
"name": "US consumers",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Benefiting from subdued energy prices"
},
{
"name": "Denver",
"type": "region",
"context": "Forecasted to have 39-degree temperatures"
},
{
"name": "Calgary",
"type": "region",
"context": "Forecasted to have 27-degree temperatures"
},
{
"name": "Arizona",
"type": "region",
"context": "Lingering heat, upper 80s in Phoenix/Tucson"
},
{
"name": "California",
"type": "region",
"context": "Lingering heat, 90s in interior parts"
},
{
"name": "Texas",
"type": "region",
"context": "Lingering heat, pushing up temperatures"
},
{
"name": "Houston Bay",
"type": "region",
"context": "Colder air coming around"
},
{
"name": "Florida",
"type": "region",
"context": "Above normal temperatures"
},
{
"name": "New Mexico",
"type": "region",
"context": "Equal chances for seasonal temperature outlook"
},
{
"name": "Oklahoma",
"type": "region",
"context": "Equal chances for seasonal temperature outlook"
},
{
"name": "Mississippi",
"type": "region",
"context": "Needs more rain"
},
{
"name": "Wisconsin",
"type": "region",
"context": "Cooler temperatures in 8-14 day outlook"
},
{
"name": "Minnesota",
"type": "region",
"context": "Cooler temperatures in 8-14 day outlook"
},
{
"name": "El Nino",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Super El Nino, affecting weather patterns"
},
{
"name": "Europe",
"type": "region",
"context": "Gas storage and weather discussed"
},
{
"name": "Belgium",
"type": "region",
"context": "63% full gas storage"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
"type": "region",
"context": "59% full gas storage"
},
{
"name": "Latvia",
"type": "region",
"context": "49% full gas storage"
},
{
"name": "UK",
"type": "region",
"context": "32-35% full gas storage, receiving LNG and Norway gas"
},
{
"name": "Netherlands",
"type": "region",
"context": "60% full gas storage, no exports from UK"
},
{
"name": "Ireland",
"type": "region",
"context": "Receiving exports from UK"
},
{
"name": "Iran",
"type": "region",
"context": "Making rumblings about Strait of Hormuz"
},
{
"name": "Strait of Hormuz",
"type": "region",
"context": "Traffic getting through, but Iran is rumbling"
},
{
"name": "France",
"type": "region",
"context": "Cooler weather coming in"
},
{
"name": "Japan",
"type": "region",
"context": "Storm moving past"
},
{
"name": "Nolo",
"type": "other",
"context": "Active storm in the Pacific"
},
{
"name": "Rachel",
"type": "other",
"context": "Weakening storm offshore"
},
{
"name": "Bay of Campeche",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area of focus for tropical development"
},
{
"name": "Yucatan",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area of focus for tropical development"
},
{
"name": "Pacific Northwest",
"type": "region",
"context": "Cooler water temperatures pushing towards"
},
{
"name": "Baja",
"type": "region",
"context": "Cooler water temperatures just south of"
},
{
"name": "Ras Laffan",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Global LNG loading terminal, only one tanker filling"
},
{
"name": "Cameron LNG",
"type": "organization",
"context": "US LNG facility, ramping up to nameplate capacity"
},
{
"name": "Creole Trail Pipeline",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Pipeline feeding Sabine Pass, running at 1.5 out of 1.7 capacity"
},
{
"name": "Sabine Pass",
"type": "region",
"context": "Location of LNG facilities"
},
{
"name": "Corpus Christi",
"type": "organization",
"context": "LNG facility, running at 2.52 out of 2.75 capacity"
},
{
"name": "Calcasieu Pass",
"type": "organization",
"context": "LNG facility, running at 1.681"
},
{
"name": "Plaquemines",
"type": "organization",
"context": "LNG facility, up over 4 BCF, awaiting FERC approval for Phase 1"
},
{
"name": "FERC",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, approval needed for Plaquemines"
},
{
"name": "Golden Pass Pipeline",
"type": "organization",
"context": "LNG facility, 243,600 MMBtu, commissioning problems"
},
{
"name": "Arctic Oscillation (AO)",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Positive phase"
},
{
"name": "North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Positive phase"
},
{
"name": "Pacific North America (PNA) Index",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Positive phase"
},
{
"name": "Beijing",
"type": "region",
"context": "Takes all pipeline gas in winter, forcing other regions to pull LNG"
},
{
"name": "Hong Kong",
"type": "region",
"context": "Has to pull in more LNG due to Beijing's pipeline gas consumption"
},
{
"name": "Macau",
"type": "region",
"context": "Has to pull in more LNG due to Beijing's pipeline gas consumption"
},
{
"name": "Taiwan",
"type": "region",
"context": "Southwest of Taiwan has to pull in more LNG"
},
{
"name": "Mongolia",
"type": "region",
"context": "Cooler weather coming in"
},
{
"name": "New Delhi",
"type": "region",
"context": "86-degree temperatures"
},
{
"name": "Landbridge",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock, up 0.24%"
}
],
"sentiment": "mixed",
"confidence": 0.9,
"key_points": [
{
"point": "Freeport LNG has at least one train down.",
"timestamp": "00:15",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "South Korea has pushed back against the Alaskan LNG investment.",
"timestamp": "00:21",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Chevron is expanding its global LNG portfolio through offtakes, not new facilities.",
"timestamp": "00:27",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Russian plague fears are rising after the death of researchers at an anti-plague facility.",
"timestamp": "00:36",
"importance": "low"
},
{
"point": "The Natural Gas November 2026 contract (NGX26) is currently trading around 3.035, waffling between positive and negative territory.",
"timestamp": "00:56",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The daily RSI for NGX26 is going sideways but trying to turn to the upside, while the hourly RSI is turning down.",
"timestamp": "01:07",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "NGX26 is currently above the daily pivot of 2.9990, stuck between first resistance at 3.0870 and the pivot.",
"timestamp": "01:25",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "ERCOT system-wide demand is just under 67,000 MW, with natural gas picking up about 48% of the fuel mix due to low wind generation.",
"timestamp": "01:59",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "National grid prices are fairly subdued despite some volatility caused by fall maintenance.",
"timestamp": "03:04",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Cooler temperatures are starting to enter the northern US, but lingering summer warmth is expected in the interior Southwest and parts of California through October 20th.",
"timestamp": "03:15",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature outlooks show above-normal temperatures in the southern US and cooler temperatures in the northern tier.",
"timestamp": "04:33",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The winter natural gas strip is still in a big down channel, but the RSI is trying to turn to the upside.",
"timestamp": "05:01",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "European gas storage is 72.4% full, aiming for 76% by November 1st, but some countries like Germany (59%) and Latvia (49%) are lagging.",
"timestamp": "05:36",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "UK NBP Natural Gas Futures are down 2.71%, with some optimism about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, despite Iran's rumblings.",
"timestamp": "06:24",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The UK is seeing big storage injections (60.78 thousand cubic meters), with total gas storage at 35.5% full.",
"timestamp": "07:26",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "In winter, Beijing takes all pipeline gas from former Soviet Republics, forcing Hong Kong, Macau, and Southwest Taiwan to import more LNG.",
"timestamp": "08:25",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "There is a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico within the next seven days.",
"timestamp": "11:23",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "US LNG facilities like Cameron, Creole Trail, Corpus Christi, and Calcasieu Pass are running at high capacities and ramping up.",
"timestamp": "09:49",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Plaquemines LNG has asked FERC for permission to get Phase 1 into service, with design capacity moved up to 4.5 BCF.",
"timestamp": "10:43",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Golden Pass Pipeline continues to have commissioning problems, described as the worst seen in the United States.",
"timestamp": "11:04",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "US nuclear fleet has 15.5 GW offline, which is within the five-year average range for the fall outage season.",
"timestamp": "12:31",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "A massive El Nino is forming with warm subsea temperatures, which will affect the jet stream and potentially weather in the Southeast US.",
"timestamp": "13:09",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific North America Index are all in a positive phase.",
"timestamp": "13:45",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The El Nino is expected to peak in mid-winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) and then quickly fade to neutral by April-May-June.",
"timestamp": "14:20",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Seasonal precipitation outlook for Oct-Nov-Dec 2026 indicates cooler, wetter conditions in the south and warmer, drier conditions in the north, typical for an El Nino.",
"timestamp": "14:47",
"importance": "high"
}
],
"trade_ideas": [],
"price_levels": [
{
"note": "Unchanged/waffling",
"value": "3.035",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Nov 26 (NGX26)"
},
{
"note": "Up 6 ticks",
"value": "3.0410",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Nov 26 (NGX26)"
},
{
"note": "Daily pivot",
"value": "2.9990",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Nov 26 (NGX26)",
"level_type": "pivot"
},
{
"note": "First resistance",
"value": "3.0870",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Nov 26 (NGX26)",
"level_type": "resistance"
},
{
"note": "First support",
"value": "2.9480",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Nov 26 (NGX26)",
"level_type": "support"
},
{
"value": "$76",
"instrument": "SPP Locational Marginal Price"
},
{
"value": "$112",
"instrument": "MISO Locational Marginal Price"
},
{
"value": "down 2.71%",
"instrument": "UK NBP Natural Gas Futures"
}
],
"time_horizon": "short_term",
"matches_filter": true,
"data_references": [
{
"value": "at least one train down",
"metric": "Operational Status",
"source": "Freeport LNG"
},
{
"value": "just under 67,000 MW",
"metric": "System-Wide Demand",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "31,000 MW",
"metric": "Renewables (Wind) Peak",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "48% (over 25,700 MW)",
"metric": "Natural Gas Fuel Mix",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "$76",
"metric": "Locational Marginal Price",
"source": "SPP"
},
{
"value": "$112",
"metric": "Locational Marginal Price",
"source": "MISO"
},
{
"value": "Cooler in northern US (39F Denver, 27F Calgary), lingering 90s in interior California, upper 80s in Phoenix/Tucson by Oct 20",
"metric": "2m AGL Temperature forecast",
"period": "October 5-20, 2026",
"source": "ECMWF"
},
{
"value": "Above normal temperatures in Florida, Desert Southwest, California, Texas",
"metric": "6-10 Day Temperature Outlook",
"period": "October 10-14, 2026",
"source": "NOAA"
},
{
"value": "Cooler temperatures in Dakotas, Wisconsin, Minnesota",
"metric": "8-14 Day Temperature Outlook",
"period": "October 12-18, 2026",
"source": "NOAA"
},
{
"value": "72.4%",
"metric": "Underground gas storage fullness",
"period": "Current (EU)",
"source": "KYOS"
},
{
"value": "63%",
"metric": "Gas in Storage and Available Free Storage Capacity",
"period": "Current (Belgium)",
"source": "ENTSOG"
},
{
"value": "59%",
"metric": "Gas in Storage and Available Free Storage Capacity",
"period": "Current (Germany)",
"source": "ENTSOG"
},
{
"value": "49%",
"metric": "Gas in Storage and Available Free Storage Capacity",
"period": "Current (Latvia)",
"source": "ENTSOG"
},
{
"value": "32-35%",
"metric": "Gas in Storage and Available Free Storage Capacity",
"period": "Current (UK)",
"source": "ENTSOG"
},
{
"value": "60%",
"metric": "Gas in Storage and Available Free Storage Capacity",
"period": "Current (Netherlands)",
"source": "ENTSOG"
},
{
"value": "60.78 thousand cubic meters",
"metric": "Storage Injection",
"source": "UK National Grid"
},
{
"value": "15.46%",
"metric": "LNG Stored (UK)",
"source": "TerraVolt"
},
{
"value": "20.02%",
"metric": "Gas Stored (UK)",
"source": "TerraVolt"
},
{
"value": "Mixed bag, successive waves of warmer then cooler temperatures, overall close to normal",
"metric": "ECMWF HRES 2t 2m Temperature Anomaly",
"period": "October 5-20, 2026 (Europe)",
"source": "WXCHARTS.COM"
},
{
"value": "Mixed bag, cooler in Koreas/Eastern China, warmer around 7th/8th, cooler around 16th, warmer in Beijing around 20th",
"metric": "ECMWF HRES 2t 2m Temperature Anomaly",
"period": "October 5-20, 2026 (Asia)",
"source": "WXCHARTS.COM"
},
{
"value": "70% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 7 Days in Southwestern Gulf of America",
"metric": "7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook",
"period": "As of 8:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 5, 2026",
"source": "National Hurricane Center"
},
{
"value": "86 degrees",
"metric": "Water Temperatures (Gulf of Mexico)",
"period": "Monday 8:03 AM",
"source": "Klystron 9"
},
{
"value": "1.509 (out of 1.56 nameplate capacity)",
"metric": "Cameron LNG Delivery Location",
"source": "Sempra"
},
{
"value": "1.5 (out of 1.7 capacity)",
"metric": "Creole Trail Pipeline Delivery Location",
"source": "Cheniere"
},
{
"value": "2.52 (out of 2.75 capacity)",
"metric": "Corpus Christi Pipeline Delivery Location",
"source": "Cheniere"
},
{
"value": "1.681",
"metric": "Calcasieu Pass Delivery Location",
"source": "TransCameron"
},
{
"value": "over 4 BCF (design capacity moved up to 4.5)",
"metric": "Plaquemines Delivery Location",
"source": "Venture Global Gator Express LLC"
},
{
"value": "243,600 MMBtu",
"metric": "Delivery Location",
"source": "Golden Pass Pipeline"
},
{
"value": "15.5 GW offline (last year 18.6 GW), in middle of 5-year average",
"metric": "Status of U.S. Nuclear Outages",
"period": "October 5, 2026",
"source": "EIA"
},
{
"value": "Expected to peak mid-winter (Dec-Jan-Feb), then quickly fade to neutral by April-May-June",
"metric": "OFSv2 relative Nino3.4 anomalies (K)",
"source": "NOAA"
},
{
"value": "1.25 (Positive Phase)",
"metric": "Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index",
"period": "October 4, 2026",
"source": "weather.gov"
},
{
"value": "1.05 (Positive Phase)",
"metric": "North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index",
"period": "October 4, 2026",
"source": "weather.gov"
},
{
"value": "0.70 (Positive Phase)",
"metric": "Pacific North America (PNA) Index",
"period": "October 4, 2026",
"source": "weather.gov"
},
{
"value": "Cooler, wetter south; warmer, drier north (typical El Nino)",
"metric": "Seasonal Precipitation Outlook",
"period": "Oct-Nov-Dec 2026",
"source": "NOAA"
},
{
"value": "Warmer temperatures to the north, equal chances in Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Colorado",
"metric": "Seasonal Temperature Outlook",
"period": "Oct-Nov-Dec 2026",
"source": "NOAA"
},
{
"value": "+0.24%",
"metric": "Stock Price Change",
"source": "Landbridge"
}
],
"match_reasoning": "The video substantively discusses natural gas, LNG, and related market and weather factors throughout its entire duration."
},
"video_id": "kjTSLWmSQ_Q",
"video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjTSLWmSQ_Q",
"transcript": "Good morning, natural gas. It's Monday, October the 5th, 2026. I'm Tim Beggs, president of El trading company. And this is the top news for natural gas. Number one, Freeport LNG has at least one train down. Number two, South Korea has pushed back against the Alaskan LNG investment. Number three, Sebron is expanding global LNG portfolio through offtake, not new facilities. And number four, Russia plague fears rise after death of researchers. Really, it's an anti plague facility. Kind of reminds you of Wuhan's anti-viral facility. Probably nothing to worry about. Let's turn to the spot November and natural gas contract. We're currently down well on change now. Uh trading at 303 and right now that is just about unchangeable. We keep wapping back and forth to positive and negative territory. The RSI is reflecting that on the daily chart. It's going sideways. Although it has turned to the upside, so it's trying to find a reason to go up. But we've got some negative news. Not only do we have fall weather, we've got a mixed bag on LNG. Let's take a look at the hourly chart. And as you can see, we are above the daily pivot which came in today at 2:999. The RSI though is turning down. So we're stuck right now between the first uh resistance here at 30870 and the daily pivot. So let's see what happens here. If we start to waffler a little lower, get back to the pivot and then possibly push down towards first support at two, 9480. Right now, there's a mixed bag out there as I said about LNG. It is quiet otherwise on the news front. Let's take a look at the grid. And here is today. We are looking at just under 67,000 MW for system wide demand. And the reason here for uh renewable is only 31,000 head peak today because wind is so low right now. And as you can see as a result natural gas is picking up about 48% of the fuel mix here, just over 25,700 MW here. You can see the renewable, the battery guys were discharging at the breakfast hour. Now they're quickly charging here, basically picking up on the wind here. As you can see, power storage is pulling 4384 and wind is only producing 4531. So the battery guys are grabbing the wind and looking to discharge in the evening hours. Let's turn to the national grid. And again, it is fairly quiet though. SPP got up to $76 today and there's a little bit of volatility in my this morning here behind me up to $112. But really, it is just about fall maintenance and that is causing some volatility across the energy grid, but prices are fairly subdued. That's good news for US consumers. Let's take a look at the weather forecast here and this is going out. This is the temperatures. And as you can see, cooler temperatures are starting to come in to the northern tier of the country, especially along the rocky mountains here. It is still very warm in the interior Southwest, Arizona, parts of California. But take a look at that cold weather there. Look at that pushing back all this warmth here out of the interior west, pushing it further to the east. This continues here as we go through the next few days. And there it is on the 15th, pushing all the way into Denver here, looking at like 39 degrees in Denver, Chicago, 27 degrees. This pushes most of the warmth out before it starts pushing back in again. There is that dome that chimney effect, I should say, not a dome, a chimney effect pushing up from Texas all the way back up to the Dallas, pushing back against the cold. But as you can see there's some colder air coming around Houston Bay now. So, yes, we are getting into the mid part of October and that's normal here. We should start to see some cooler temperatures. But again, we've got lingering heat here at the end of the forecast on the 20th, 90s into the interior parts of California and possibly upper 80s into Phoenix and Arizona. So, it is still fall but we've got lingering summer warmth. Let's take a look at the 6-10-day outlook and that's exactly what we see here above normal temperatures of course in Florida, great place to go in winter. But as you can see above normal temperatures in the desert Southwest to California and again Texas pushing up and then it looks like there's a little bit of cooler temperatures here showing up on the 8th to 14-day temperature outlook right through the Dallas and Wisconsin, Minnesota. Let's take a look at at the strip here. This is the winter strip. We're still in that big down channel here. And as you can see, the RSI though is trying to turn to the upside here. So, we may get some profit taking here back and forth. Again, remember, Super El, doesn't mean we don't get cold weather. It means that on average we're above normal in the northern tier of the United States, but we're cooler and weather across the southern tier. That does not mean we get no cold weather. So be careful out here. This is a very crowded short position. And let's turn to Europe. It is 72.4% full and storage. That's good news overall. It is trying to get to about 76% full before November the 1st. So we've got three and a half weeks to go here right now. That's not exactly great news, but because we've got some problem children out there. Belgium 63% here, Germany 59% full. Latvia 49%. You can see uh UK here shows 32%, it's closer to 35% and of course the Netherlands at 60%. So we've got some problems out there in the EU. Overall though, it is trying to get close to its target of 80%. full, it will not reach it. Let's take a look at the uh UK prices here. This is per term. We're down 2.71% here. The is turning lower. There is some optimism that the straight Force was will reopen. There's at least some traffic getting through the street of Force, but Iran is making some rumbling about that again. Let's take a look at the European weather and it is a mixed bag. warmer right now. That's good news for injections here. warmer against normal but not extremely hot. There's some cooler weather comes through on the ninth here into France and Germany, UK and Ireland before we warm back up again. So we get these successive waves here of warming then cooler temperatures. Overall though, it is fairly close to normal. Good news here. Let's take a look. I'm going to shift over one more time here. Let's pull it over here. There we go. We've got LNG and Norway supplying the UK right now. No exports to the Netherlands, no exports to Belgium. There is still some exports of course to Ireland, but overall look at that. Big storage injection number 60.78,000 cubic meters. That's good news. They continue to push gas into storage. And there is the bigger picture, LNG stored 15.46% gas stored over 20%. So again, there's 35 and a half percent full overall. Not great, but it is better than what we had just a few weeks ago. Let's turn to Asia here and I'll ship back over again. Here we go. It is a mix bag as well in Asia, cooler temperatures right now through the Koreans and Eastern China. warmer temperatures are starting to show up around the seventh and eighth. That's opposite of Europe here. And as you can see as we go through the forecast, it is a mixed bag. It is relatively normal here, looking like some cooler weather coming in on the 16th, warmer temperatures coming into Beijing before we get some cooler weather down through Mongolia around the 20th into Beijing. Remember, during winter, Beijing takes all the pipeline gas from the former Soviet Republics and that means that Hong Kong Macau down here in the southeast or southwest of Taiwan has to pull in more LNG. I know it sounds ridiculous, but that's what happens. Let's take a look at the bigger picture here and as you can see Tokyo 68°, Beijing 62° , New Delhi 86° . Let's take a look at the satellite picture because we've got a lot of storms out there in the Pacific. There she is. There's a big one. moving up towards uh going to skate basically past Japan at this point. There is Nolo. It is still active out there. Really well defined eye wall there is a dangerous storm. But again, this is going to push out this way. Nolo is going to run into it and that's going to cause the two of them to just dissipate over time. There is Rachel out here. She's going to stay offshore looking a little bit weaker at right now, but look at the golf. There is activity here in the bay of Campichi. So we're going to keep a careful eye on that as well because that's our area of focus going forward for the United States. Let's take a look at the Global LNG. This is Ros Lafon. We actually have a tanker filling up here at one of the docks here at Ros Lafon. There's 10 loading terminals. There is only one ship. And here is Cameron US LNG up to 1.509. Great news there. They've rebounded here. Almost up to there to launch plate capacity is 1.5 6. So ramping up. But free port. No, had problems starting on Friday afternoon and continues all the way through this morning. They are trying to ramp up here. Let's see what happens in the next few hours. But let's take a look over at retail, one of the pipelines to feed. It's being passed 1.5. Great news there out of 1.7 capacity. Corrupty up to 2.52 out of 2.75. also doing well there. Here is running 1.681. Also good news. And there is Pmans up over four BC. Remember we talked about the design passing moved up to 4.5. So they've asked for permission to get phase one into service. So we'll watch to see this number climb over the next few weeks once it gets for approval. And here is our Pokie. Golden pass 243,600 MB. There's no tankers loading in this facility. It continues to have problems commisioning. This is very, very late in commisioning this facility. It's the worst we've seen in the United States. Let's take a look at the Gulf and there is the Bay of Campeche. There is that uh thunderstorm activity has not yet formed, but this is what we're going to keep a careful eye on it because we've got a 70% chance of the development here in the next seven days. That's good news there because we haven't seen a storm yet in the mid-Atlantic that forms up into a hurricane. We don't know if this one will, but we're at least keeping a careful eye on it. And there is the bigger picture. There is some activity here from some remnants of the storms. There is some activity here on East of the Windward Islands, but right now our focus is right here, the Bay of Campeche. And there it is. The global tropical hazard outlook is around the Ukatane in the Bay of Campeche at this time. water temperatures there, 86 degrees. So, yeah, we've got plenty of fuel. We could use some more rain. It is overcast here in the Houston area, but we could definitely use some more rain in interior parts of Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Mississippi, you get you name it. We'll take it. Let's take a look at the Sahara Air layer. Yep, there's almost nothing out there right now. A little bit of coming off the coast of Africa, but as you can see, the trade winds are quite light. And here is the US nuclear fleet. right now. We are running right now at 15 and a half gigawatt or offline. Last year, 18.6 gigawatt, but we're right in the middle of the range for the five-year average right now. That's good news. We do have to take these units down ahead of winter. So, let's see what happens here, but we are slowly beginning that out of season, which does peak here in the middle of October from somewhere between the 17th last year all the way through the 23rd it was a double peak there. But as you can see, we can push this all all the way out into about the end of October before these units need to start coming back online. And again, here's the global picture. This is the El Nino that's forming here. This is the subsea temperatures here and as you can see, massive all the way back to the date line here, that's marked right there in green. There's Hawaii, that cooler temperature, cooler water temperature is there and pushing east uh toward the Pacific Northwest and as you can see just south of Baja. So we'll keep it careful eye on it because This will affect the jet stream and that may affect weather in the southeast of the United States. And if you are curious about the telecommunications, here is the page to look at. It's on weather.gov here. And as you can see right now, this is the Arctic oscillation is positive, the North Atlantic oscillation is also positive and the Pacific North America index is also positive. You can learn more and what that means in these phases, right? The phase versus negative phases. Everything's positive, so it's going to be on the right side of these pages here. So take a look here at the water.gov/fzz/teleconferences. And here is the latest El Nino Outlook here and as you can see, we are expecting to peak here in the middle of winter for this super El Nino possible record El Nino, but look how quickly it fades. It does fade out here back to new by April, May, June. potentially. that's on the models. As you can see, we peek right in the middle of winter here, that's D and F and then quickly move lower. Let's scroll down a little bit here and take a look at some of the temperature outlook. There it is, precipitation. This is typical for an El Nino. cooler, weather, south, warmer temperatures to the north here on the northern tier. Equal chances here in Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Colorado. Let us take a look at the oil and gas EMP sector, stocks between two and $10 billion dollars. Have a high short float. And as you can see, it's a sea, well it's mixed. Mostly green, but there is still some negative prices here behind me. Landbridge up.24%. So recapping here for the spot November contract. We're up just six ticks, the 304-10. And that is up .2%. The RSI is flat going sideways but turning higher. So, let's see what we can do today, but we may see it drift off later this afternoon. It all depends on freeport and Golden Pass LNG. Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below. Please hit that like and subscribe button. Thanks for listening. We'll see you tomorrow.",
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