Elk Trading - Natural Gas - Run #3847
Reporting Date: 2026-10-02
Completed
Run Details
- State
- Completed
- Started At
- October 02, 2026 at 03:17 PM
- Completed At
- October 02, 2026 at 03:18 PM
- Duration
- 2 minutes
- Headline
- Natural Gas Weekly Recap November Futures (NGX26 @ 2.984) | 10.02.2026
Data Preview
{
"title": "Natural Gas Weekly Recap November Futures (NGX26 @ 2.984) | 10.02.2026",
"filter": {
"keywords": [
"natural gas"
],
"match_mode": "any",
"match_fields": [
"title",
"description"
],
"semantic_filter": true
},
"source": "youtube",
"channel": {
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/@ElKTradingCoLLC",
"title": "ELK TRADING Co LLC | Natural Gas Trading",
"handle": "ElKTradingCoLLC",
"channel_id": "UCcvcKcyIO_nhZrRubvfxO3w"
},
"matched": true,
"insights": {
"risks": [
"Winter will be a rollercoaster.",
"Super El Nino winner means we're probably front-ended with warmth, back-ended maybe with cold.",
"The winter risk keeps getting pushed further and further out.",
"The jet stream movement will be the key difference between previous El Ninos like 2015 and what happens this winter.",
"Golden Pass is having teething problems with this Train 1.",
"That is what happens when you get rid of your primary EPC contractor and have to switch in the middle of construction.",
"This is a very slow commissioning.",
"Hopefully this thing will be settled up before the end of the year.",
"Global LNG prices are headline prices because they're reactive here to what happens in the Strait of Hormuz.",
"Looks like we're going up again on another round between the Iran and the US. That is getting everybody a little excited."
],
"topics": [
"Natural Gas Futures",
"Natural Gas Storage",
"Weather Forecasts (US, Europe, Asia)",
"LNG Exports",
"Power Demand",
"Renewable Energy",
"Nuclear Outages",
"El Nino",
"Tropical Storms",
"Oil & Gas E&P Stocks",
"European Gas Market",
"UK Gas Market",
"Geopolitics (Strait of Hormuz)"
],
"summary": "The natural gas market is experiencing short covering ahead of the weekend, with the November contract showing a slight uptick. While the EIA storage report was on expectations, it was bearish compared to last year but bullish against the five-year average. Texas is seeing cooler, rainy weather, reducing system demand and increasing natural gas's market share in power generation. European gas storage remains a concern, with many countries below optimal levels, while US LNG exports are stable despite some operational issues at Golden Pass. The winter outlook suggests a \"rollercoaster\" of temperatures, with a strong El Nino potentially influencing the jet stream later in the season.",
"entities": [
{
"name": "Natural Gas",
"type": "commodity",
"context": "Futures, storage, demand, prices"
},
{
"name": "Tim Beggins",
"type": "person",
"context": "President of Elk Trading Company"
},
{
"name": "Elk Trading Company",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Presenter of the video"
},
{
"name": "Texas",
"type": "region",
"context": "Rain, weather, ERCOT load, natural gas market share"
},
{
"name": "Montgomery County",
"type": "region",
"context": "Location in Texas that received rain"
},
{
"name": "Hurricane Polo",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Remnants caused rain in Texas"
},
{
"name": "EIA",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Source of natural gas storage report and nuclear outages data"
},
{
"name": "ERCOT",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Texas electric grid operator, discussed for demand and prices"
},
{
"name": "PJM",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Regional transmission organization, discussed for price volatility"
},
{
"name": "MISO",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Regional transmission organization, discussed for price volatility"
},
{
"name": "Calgary",
"type": "region",
"context": "Source of cooler weather pushing into the Rockies"
},
{
"name": "Rockies",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area receiving cooler weather"
},
{
"name": "Denver",
"type": "region",
"context": "City in the Rockies with cooler temperatures forecast"
},
{
"name": "Wyoming",
"type": "region",
"context": "State in the Rockies with cooler temperatures forecast"
},
{
"name": "New England",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area receiving cooler weather"
},
{
"name": "New York State",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area receiving cooler weather"
},
{
"name": "Great Lakes",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area with warm water bodies affecting temperatures"
},
{
"name": "California",
"type": "region",
"context": "Desert Southwest and Central Valley, above normal temperatures"
},
{
"name": "NOAA",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Source of temperature outlooks and tropical hazards outlook"
},
{
"name": "El Nino",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Weather phenomenon influencing winter forecasts"
},
{
"name": "Europe",
"type": "region",
"context": "Natural gas storage, weather"
},
{
"name": "KYOS",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Source of European gas analytics"
},
{
"name": "United Kingdom",
"type": "region",
"context": "Gas storage, supply/demand"
},
{
"name": "Netherlands",
"type": "region",
"context": "Gas storage, UK exports"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
"type": "region",
"context": "Gas storage"
},
{
"name": "Belgium",
"type": "region",
"context": "Gas storage, UK exports"
},
{
"name": "Middle East",
"type": "region",
"context": "US moving a third carrier, related to Strait of Hormuz tensions"
},
{
"name": "Iran",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Involved in tensions with US over Strait of Hormuz"
},
{
"name": "US",
"type": "region",
"context": "Involved in tensions with Iran over Strait of Hormuz"
},
{
"name": "Dutch TTF",
"type": "commodity",
"context": "European natural gas futures price"
},
{
"name": "Russia",
"type": "region",
"context": "European weather patterns"
},
{
"name": "Turkey",
"type": "region",
"context": "European weather patterns"
},
{
"name": "Spain",
"type": "region",
"context": "European weather patterns"
},
{
"name": "France",
"type": "region",
"context": "European weather patterns"
},
{
"name": "Benelux",
"type": "region",
"context": "European weather patterns"
},
{
"name": "Norway",
"type": "region",
"context": "Source of UK gas imports"
},
{
"name": "India",
"type": "region",
"context": "Weather, monsoon rains"
},
{
"name": "Beijing",
"type": "region",
"context": "Weather"
},
{
"name": "Japan",
"type": "region",
"context": "Weather, storm systems"
},
{
"name": "China",
"type": "region",
"context": "Eastern provinces weather"
},
{
"name": "Philippines",
"type": "region",
"context": "Storm system east of"
},
{
"name": "Nolo",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Storm system west of Hawaii"
},
{
"name": "Hawaii",
"type": "region",
"context": "Storm system west of"
},
{
"name": "Rachel",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Storm system offshore Baja California"
},
{
"name": "Baja California",
"type": "region",
"context": "Storm system offshore"
},
{
"name": "Panama",
"type": "region",
"context": "Rain, Lake Gatun water levels"
},
{
"name": "Lake Gatun",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Water level for Panama Canal transit"
},
{
"name": "Panama Canal",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Vessel transit affected by water levels"
},
{
"name": "Fay",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Remnants of Tropical Storm Fay in Mid-Atlantic"
},
{
"name": "Sabine Pass",
"type": "organization",
"context": "US LNG export terminal"
},
{
"name": "Golden Pass",
"type": "organization",
"context": "US LNG export terminal with operational issues"
},
{
"name": "Cameron LNG",
"type": "organization",
"context": "US LNG export terminal"
},
{
"name": "Freeport LNG",
"type": "organization",
"context": "US LNG export terminal"
},
{
"name": "Creole Trail",
"type": "organization",
"context": "US LNG pipeline/export terminal"
},
{
"name": "Corpus Christi",
"type": "organization",
"context": "US LNG export terminal"
},
{
"name": "Yucatan",
"type": "region",
"context": "Tropical weather outlook"
},
{
"name": "Bay of Campeche",
"type": "region",
"context": "Tropical weather outlook"
},
{
"name": "Florida",
"type": "region",
"context": "Tropical weather outlook"
},
{
"name": "Saharan Air Layer",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Dust layer over Atlantic"
},
{
"name": "Dominican Republic",
"type": "region",
"context": "Location relative to Saharan dust"
},
{
"name": "Windward Islands",
"type": "region",
"context": "Location relative to Saharan dust"
},
{
"name": "Nuclear Outages",
"type": "concept",
"context": "US nuclear fleet maintenance"
},
{
"name": "Jet Stream",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Influencing winter weather patterns"
},
{
"name": "Landbridge Company",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
},
{
"name": "Matador Resources",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
},
{
"name": "Magnolia Oil & Gas",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
},
{
"name": "CRGY",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
},
{
"name": "CRK",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
},
{
"name": "CNX",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
},
{
"name": "NOG",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
},
{
"name": "BKV",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
}
],
"sentiment": "mixed",
"confidence": 0.9,
"key_points": [
{
"point": "Natural Gas Nov 26 (NGX26) is currently trading at 2.973, up 6 ticks or 0.17%.",
"timestamp": "00:14",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The RSI for Natural Gas is trying to turn to the upside, indicating some short covering ahead of the weekend.",
"timestamp": "00:21",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Natural Gas is still below the 13 and 48-period exponential moving averages, suggesting a potential relief rally could be in order.",
"timestamp": "00:30",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The daily pivot for Natural Gas today is at 2.9780, and the market has held second support at 2.904.",
"timestamp": "00:58",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The EIA Natural Gas Storage Report came in at +64 Bcf, directly on expectations, but is bearish versus last year's +56 Bcf and bullish versus the five-year average of +80 Bcf.",
"timestamp": "01:33",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "ERCOT prices are down, with system-wide demand today under 65,000 MW due to overcast and rainy weather in Texas.",
"timestamp": "01:57",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Natural gas is holding over 53% of the market share in power generation in Texas, pulling over 30,000 MW, even in a light market.",
"timestamp": "02:22",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Warmer temperatures are locked into the Southeast and Desert Southwest, while cooler weather is coming down from Calgary into the Rockies, with Denver forecast at 35 degrees on October 11th and Wyoming at 25 degrees.",
"timestamp": "03:00",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The 6-10 day temperature outlook from NOAA shows near-normal temperatures in South Texas and across the Eastern Seaboard, but above-normal temperatures are firmly locked in California.",
"timestamp": "04:27",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "A normal winter's average cost for storage (Jan vs Dec spread) is about 25 cents, but with a Super El Nino winter, the winter risk is being pushed further out, leading to January holding a better premium to December (currently 38 cents).",
"timestamp": "04:58",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "European Union gas storage is currently 71.5% full, with injections starting to come down seasonally, and it will be lucky to reach 75-76% fullness by November 1st.",
"timestamp": "05:35",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The UK's total gas storage (gas and LNG combined) is about 34.5% full, with storage withdrawals at zero and imports coming from Norway and LNG.",
"timestamp": "08:09",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Asian weather is a mixed bag, with cooler temperatures in Beijing, Japan, India, and Eastern China until October 7th, followed by warmer temperatures, and then cooler temperatures returning the following week.",
"timestamp": "08:31",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Panama's Lake Gatun is at 85 feet, which is good news for keeping water surcharge down for vessels transiting the Panama Canal.",
"timestamp": "09:43",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Golden Pass LNG is experiencing teething problems with its Train 1, leading to a very slow commissioning process, with current output at 206,848 MMBtu.",
"timestamp": "11:10",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The US nuclear fleet has 12.3 GW offline for maintenance, which is higher than last year but within the five-year range, with the northern tier starting its maintenance and refueling.",
"timestamp": "13:08",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The big story for the back end of winter is the pooling of cooler water in the Pacific, which is getting closer to the United States and will be a key difference in how the jet stream moves compared to previous El Ninos like 2015.",
"timestamp": "13:24",
"importance": "high"
}
],
"trade_ideas": [],
"price_levels": [
{
"note": "Current price, up 6 ticks",
"value": "2.973",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Nov 26 (NGX26)",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Daily pivot",
"value": "2.9780",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Nov 26 (NGX26)",
"level_type": "pivot"
},
{
"note": "Second support held",
"value": "2.904",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Nov 26 (NGX26)",
"level_type": "support"
},
{
"note": "Average cost for storage for one month in a normal winter",
"value": "0.25",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Jan vs Dec spread",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Current premium for January over December",
"value": "0.38",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Jan vs Dec spread",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Expected peak price",
"value": "200",
"instrument": "PJM Locational Marginal Price",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Expected peak price",
"value": "117",
"instrument": "MISO Locational Marginal Price",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Up yesterday",
"value": "1.41%",
"instrument": "Dutch TTF January contract",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Recap current price, up 1.7 cents",
"value": "2.984",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Nov 26 (NGX26)",
"level_type": "other"
}
],
"time_horizon": "medium_term",
"matches_filter": true,
"data_references": [
{
"value": "+64 Bcf",
"metric": "Natural Gas Storage",
"period": "Weekly (as of Sep 25)",
"source": "EIA"
},
{
"value": "+56 Bcf",
"metric": "Natural Gas Storage",
"period": "Last year's weekly change",
"source": "EIA"
},
{
"value": "+80 Bcf",
"metric": "Natural Gas Storage",
"period": "5-year average weekly change",
"source": "EIA"
},
{
"value": "Under 65,000 MW",
"metric": "System-Wide Demand",
"period": "Current Day",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "24,402 MW",
"metric": "Combined Wind and Solar Peak",
"period": "Current Day",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "Over 53% (>30,000 MW)",
"metric": "Natural Gas Market Share",
"period": "Current Generation",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "71.5%",
"metric": "EU Storage Fullness",
"period": "Current",
"source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
},
{
"value": "0",
"metric": "UK Storage Withdrawals",
"period": "Current Day",
"source": "entsog Maps"
},
{
"value": "34.5%",
"metric": "UK Total Gas Storage (Gas + LNG)",
"period": "Current",
"source": "entsog Maps"
},
{
"value": "1.468 Bcf/d",
"metric": "Cameron LNG Flow",
"period": "Current Day",
"source": "Cameron Interstate Pipeline LLC"
},
{
"value": "Just under 1.8 Bcf/d",
"metric": "Total Sendout Quantity",
"period": "Current Day",
"source": "Freeport LNG"
},
{
"value": "1.38 Bcf/d",
"metric": "Creole Trail Delivery Location",
"period": "Current Day",
"source": "Cheniere Creole Trail Pipeline, L.P."
},
{
"value": "2.557 Bcf/d",
"metric": "Corpus Christi Delivery Location",
"period": "Current Day",
"source": "Cheniere Corpus Christi Pipeline, L.P."
},
{
"value": "1.648 Bcf/d",
"metric": "TransCameron Pipeline Flow",
"period": "Current Day",
"source": "TransCameron Pipeline"
},
{
"value": "206,848 MMBtu",
"metric": "Golden Pass Delivery Location",
"period": "Current Day",
"source": "Golden Pass Pipeline"
},
{
"value": "12.3 GW",
"metric": "US Nuclear Capacity Outage",
"period": "October 2026",
"source": "EIA"
},
{
"value": "Near normal (South Texas, Eastern Seaboard), Above normal (California)",
"metric": "6-10 Day Temperature Outlook",
"period": "October 7-11, 2026",
"source": "NOAA"
},
{
"value": "Not much change from 6-10 day outlook",
"metric": "8-14 Day Temperature Outlook",
"period": "October 9-15, 2026",
"source": "NOAA"
},
{
"value": "10%",
"metric": "Tropical Cyclone Formation Chance (Disturbance 1)",
"period": "7 Days",
"source": "National Hurricane Center"
}
],
"match_reasoning": "The video provides a comprehensive analysis of natural gas futures, storage, weather patterns, and LNG exports across various regions, directly addressing the requested topic."
},
"video_id": "HwpIPmd5Q-I",
"video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwpIPmd5Q-I",
"transcript": "Good morning, Natural Gas. It's Friday, October the 2nd, 2026. I'm Tim Beggins, President of Elk Trading Company. And for the spot November contract, we're currently up just six ticks to 2.9730 here. We're up 0.17%. As you can see, the RSI is trying to turn to the upside. This just looks like some short covering ahead of the weekend. The RSI, uh, we are still below the 13 and 48 period exponential moving averages. We are getting a little further away from them, so we could use a relief rally here. Let's see what happens next week. We had some rain here in Texas. Yep, we got over three and a half inches of rain here in Montgomery County, Texas. That's a lot, but this is normal here when we get these storms. This was the remnants of Hurricane Polo. Let's turn to the hourly chart. And as you can see, we are coming up toward the daily pivot, which comes in today at 2.9780 here. We were just five ticks away. The RSI has turned to the upside. We have held second support, which came in at 2.904. And as you can see, we're just trying to move back up toward this daily pivot. We'll probably close this out for the weekend here. Take a look at the weather next week. See how LNG is doing. Today, it's mixed bag, but right now, we're moving toward the pivot, which comes in again, 2.9780. Let's take a look at what happened yesterday. It was the EIA Natural Gas Storage Report. It came in at plus 64. This was directly on expectations, but it is bearish versus last year's plus 56, but bullish versus the five-year average, plus 80 Bcf. So, we've got some rain that came through, obviously, with Polo. Let's see what happens for the storage report next week because ERCOT prices are down. As you can see, our load today under 65,000 megawatts. That's right, because we're overcast and rainy here in Texas. And let's see what happens here over in the renewables. We're only going to peak out at 24,402 on the megawatts here for renewables because solar, overcast, and the wind is down as well. As a result, natural gas is holding market share over 53% right now, over 30,000 megawatts, even in a light market. It's pulling over 50%. That's good news for natural gas, even as the loads are decreasing. Let's take a look at the national grid, and there is going to be a little bit of volatility up here again in PJM, expected to be over $200. And MISO. That's right, MISO is actually here in North of Houston. It's a little quirk of fate, but we are going to be up about $117. The rest of the market looks to be fairly subdued. Let's turn to the weather forecast here, and as we see, as we go through the forecast here, the warmer temperatures are locked into the Southeast and the Desert Southwest toward California, possible parts of the Central Valley of California. We are starting to see cooler weather coming down from Calgary into the Rockies toward Denver here. We're also seeing some cooler weather next week here in New England here and New York State. As you can see, down into the 40s right there. As you can see, warms up a little bit during the day, but here's some cooler weather coming through in the Rockies here, pushing into Denver, 35 degrees on the 11th. So, this is good news if we can get some precipitation here. There it is. Denver 34, just north of that in Wyoming, 25 degrees. So, not heavily populated, but, of course, it is the start of a new season, right? We're into fall. We're going to get some cooler weather here. Those warm temperatures push out toward the Atlantic here and out to sea. But right now, we are still fairly warm across the Great Lakes here because that body of those bodies of water are fairly warm. And again, across the south along the coast and up through the Desert Southwest into California. But we are starting to see signs of cooler weather starting to push in from Canada. Nothing huge yet, but again, we just need to keep a careful eye on how winter is going to shake out. It probably is going to be a roller coaster. Let's take a look at the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook. And as you can see, near normal down here in South Texas here, and then near normal across the Eastern Seaboard from Georgia all the way back up into New England. But above normal temperatures stay firmly locked in in California. And there it is, right there for the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook. Not much of a change there. Let's take a look at the front to back spreads here. This is Jan versus December. And as you can see, I put a little bit of notation here. Normal winter, 25 cents is about the average cost for uh storage for one month, one turn there. But let's see what happens with a Super El Nino winter. Well, that winter risk keeps getting pushed further and further out. So, January holds at a better premium to December right now. And as you can see, it is pushing out here today, uh 38 cents here. Down a little bit, but look at the volatility here. Super El Nino winter means we're probably front-ended with warmth, back-ended maybe with cold. We'll see how it plays out. Let's take a look at Europe, and it is 71.5% full here. Injections are starting to come down. This is seasonally, we've peaked out here. We are crawling along here below to a new low. We'll be lucky to see this thing get to about 75%, 76% full across the EU by November the 1st. And again, the long story here is same countries have still a problem. United Kingdom is the biggest problem out there right now. Netherlands is 59%, Germany 58%, Belgium 62%. So, we've got some problem children out here in the EU for storage. And let's see what happens with winter. If they can buy a few weeks of warmer temperatures up front, that would help them very, very much. But the US is now moving a third carrier into the Middle East, which means here we go again. Let's take a look at the Dutch TTF. This is the January contract. And yesterday, it was up 1.41% here. As you can see, the RSI is trying to turn to the upside. Global LNG prices are headline prices because they're reactive here to what happens in the Strait of Hormuz. Looks like we're going up again on another round between the Iran and the US. That is getting everybody a little excited. Let's take a look at, uh, this is European weather here. As we go through the forecast period, we still get some cooler temperatures out in the West here into Russia, down into Turkey. Warmer temperatures stay in here until about the 10th here, and then it cools off, and then we get warm again around October the 15th here. Really warm around the 16th. That's toward the end of the forecast period at the 17th. Ireland cools off a little bit, but look at the warmth here relative to normal. It is fairly warm across Spain, France, Benelux, and Germany. Let's take a look here at the UK here. I'm going to switch over to the other side. And there's some good news here. Storage withdrawals, zero. Everything's coming in from Norway and LNG. That's good news here. Nothing is going to the Netherlands. Nothing is going to Belgium. There is still going to Ireland. And, of course, everything else is domestic or storage injections. And those have started picking up. That's good news. They need it. Let's take a look at the total picture for storage there in the UK. Again, LNG storage just over 16%. Gas storage 17.5%. So, again, we're about 34.5% full there. Not great news, but hopefully these injections will continue over the next few days. They certainly could use some warmer temperatures here at the front start of winter. And let's take a look at Asia. I'll switch right back over here. Here we go again. Asia is a mixed bag. Cooler temperatures right now in Beijing, all the way over into Japan here. Cooler temperatures in India, Eastern provinces of China are staying fairly cool until about the 7th here. And that's the key point. The 7th is where we get some warmer temperatures coming into Beijing before cooler temperatures come back in the following week. And then it's a mixed picture, you know, mixed bag here on the picture for around the 17th. So, fairly normal across most of the area at this stage. Let's take a look at the weather out there in the uh Pacific here. And there is very little going into India right now. They could use some more monsoonal rains here. Unfortunately, things have started to die down. This storm system here, east of the Philippines, is going to move up toward Japan. Over here is Nolo. It is out to sea, west of Hawaii. This is Rachel. Rachel stays out offshore of Baja California. There is another storm system here that we're going to keep a careful eye on for further development. It is still very, very active in the Pacific. Good news, though, is that Panama is getting some rain. They're at 85 feet for Lake Gatun. That's good news there to keep all that water surcharge down for vessels transiting the Panama Canal. And over here where this blue dot is where I am. And there is the remnants of Polo, pushing up all the way from Mexico back up into New England. It has been an impressive system. This system here in the Mid-Atlantic is what we are watching here. It's got about a 10% chance. We'll see that in just a minute. Otherwise, there really is nothing else out there. Let's take a look at the US LNG here. This is Sabine Pass. Looks like we got three vessels loading up here at Sabine Pass. Over here, Golden Pass, nothing yet. And we're going to see that news in a minute here. Let's turn to the US. Cameron LNG is running 1.468. Great news there, back to stable up there. Freeport is, uh, relatively stable, just under 1.8. Creole Trail is running right now 1.38. That's good news there. Could you could have a little bit more improvement there, but we'll see what happens. And here is, uh, Corpus Christi, running at 2.557. That's good news there. Over here at Free, uh, excuse me, Cameron, this is Cameron, uh, Calcasieu Pass TransCameron Pipeline. We're running 1.648. That's great news there. And over at Plaquemines, we're running over 4 Bcf. Unfortunately, Golden Pass is down again to 206,000 MMBtu. They are just having teething problems with this Train 1. That is what happens when you get rid of your primary EPC contractor and have to switch in the middle of construction. So, things aren't working out very well. This is a very slow commissioning. Hopefully, this thing will be settled up before the end of the year. And here is the Gulf of America/Mexico. It is fairly active. We are seeing some storm systems from across the south side of Texas here, all the way back into the Bay of Campeche. Stuff moving off the Yucatan up into Florida here. Nothing yet for development, but it is soupy out there, so we'll keep a careful eye on it over the weekend. Let's take a look at the Atlantic here. And there is a 10% chance of a cyclone formation in the next seven days. That's right. It's just a trough here of low pressure, but it is the part of Tropical Storm Fay. That's right. Fay is coming back to life. We'll see what happens here, but it is still hanging on out there in the Mid-Atlantic. There she is, right there. Everything else is sort of dying out. Again, the Gulf here around, uh, Texas all the way through Florida is getting fairly active at this stage. There is the tropical hazards. It is around the Yucatan here into the Bay of Campeche. As you can see, for the next seven to 10 days. Let's take a look at that long-range tropical outlook. And yeah, there's a slight chance out here. Again, around the Yucatan, but otherwise, right now, nothing formed. And there is the Saharan Air Layer. Look at this. There's barely any dust here south of Dominican Republic here and the Windward Islands. But there is a little bit of dust coming off of Africa right now. This is about as quiet as we've seen all season long. And here is the US nuclear fleet here, going maintenance-wise. We are looking right now at two, uh, 12.3 gigawatts are offline. That's higher than last year's 11.5 gigawatts, but well within the five-year range. Right now, as you can see, the northern tier is starting to go down for maintenance and refueling. And again, the big story, I think, at the back end of winter is this pooling of cooler water here that is getting closer and closer to the United States. Again, moving eastward here. Watch out for the jet stream. Watch how this jet stream moves because that is going to be the key difference between previous El Ninos like 2015 and what happens this winter. Let's see what happens at the back end for February and March. And let's take a look at the stocks in the oil and gas E&P sector. Stocks between two and $10 billion have a high short float, over 10%. And it's a mixed bag. Behind me, Landbridge up 0.02%. Matador up 3.06%. This is the one-week performance. And as you can see, we are recapping here for the spot November contract. We're currently trading at 2.984, up 1.7 cents here. We're just a little bit over half a percent. The RSI is trying to turn to the upside. A little bit of short covering ahead of the weekend. Let's see what happens next week. Right now, weather is cool in Texas. LNG is a bit of a disappointment. So, let us know your thoughts in the comment section below. Please hit that like and subscribe button. Thanks for listening. We'll see you soon.",
"description": "Tim Beggans recaps a quiet Friday bid that looks like weekend short covering, with November still below the 13- and 48-period EMAs. Also: yesterday’s +64 Bcf print, Polo’s 3.5 inches of rain in Montgomery County, ERCOT gas share above 50% on a cloudy light-load day, Jan–Dec holding a Super El Niño premium, EU storage stuck near 71.5%, a third U.S. carrier into the Middle East, UK injections with Rough still empty, Polo’s remnants reaching New England, three ships at Sabine Pass, Golden Pass back down to ~206k, Fay’s remnants at 10%, nuclear outages at 12.3 GW, and the E&P watch list.\nContract / levels:\n\nNovember near 2.973–2.984, up ~0.6–1.7¢\nStill below the 13- and 48-period EMAs\nDaily pivot ~2.978\nSecond support held ~2.904\nWeekend short covering; RSI trying to turn up\n\nStorage (yesterday):\n\n+64 Bcf, on consensus\nBearish vs last year +56\nBullish vs the 5-year average +80\n\nNG Stock Watch List Oil & Gas EMP Sector\nMarket Cap 2-10B, High short float over 10% \nBKV | CNX | CRGY | CRK | LB | MGY | MTDR | NOG\n\nTimestamps\n0:00 – Open: weekend short covering; still below the EMAs\n\n0:43 – Polo rain in Montgomery County\n\n0:57 – Hourly pivot & second support\n\n1:32 – EIA +64 Bcf\n\n1:56 – ERCOT under 65 GW; gas still greater than 53% of fuel mix\n\n2:37 – National grid (PJM, MISO)\n\n2:59 – U.S. models: Calgary / Rockies cold vs southern warmth\n\n4:29 – 6-10 day & 8-14 day outlooks\n\n4:52 – Jan–Dec spread vs a Super El Niño winter\n\n5:37 – EU storage 71.5%; third U.S. carrier to the Middle East\n\n6:33 – Dutch TTF January; Hormuz headlines\n\n7:02 – Europe weather into mid-October\n\n7:39 – UK flows: injecting; nothing to NL/Belgium; Rough empty\n\n8:29 – Asia weather\n\n9:06 – Pacific storms; Lake Gatun at 85 ft; Polo remnants to New England\n\n10:20 – Sabine Pass loaders; U.S. LNG (Golden Pass back to ~206k)\n\n11:39 – Gulf convection\n\n12:00 – Fay remnants, 10% chance\n\n12:31 – Yucatan / Bay of Campeche hazard window\n\n12:52 – Saharan dust quiet\n\n13:05 – Nuclear outages (~12.3 GW)\n\n13:27 – Cold pool vs 2015 El Niño; Feb–Mar watch\n\n13:52 – E&P watch list\n\n14:09 – Recap & close",
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