Elk Trading - Natural Gas - Run #3799
Reporting Date: 2026-10-01
Completed
Run Details
- State
- Completed
- Started At
- October 01, 2026 at 03:17 PM
- Completed At
- October 01, 2026 at 03:18 PM
- Duration
- 1 minute
- Headline
- Daily Natural Gas Report - November Futures (NGX26 @ 3.002) | 10.01.2026
Data Preview
{
"title": "Daily Natural Gas Report - November Futures (NGX26 @ 3.002) | 10.01.2026",
"filter": {
"keywords": [
"natural gas"
],
"match_mode": "any",
"match_fields": [
"title",
"description"
],
"semantic_filter": true
},
"source": "youtube",
"channel": {
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/@ElKTradingCoLLC",
"title": "ELK TRADING Co LLC | Natural Gas Trading",
"handle": "ElKTradingCoLLC",
"channel_id": "UCcvcKcyIO_nhZrRubvfxO3w"
},
"matched": true,
"insights": {
"risks": [
"If the storage report deviates significantly from expectations, it could cause market movement.",
"The global LNG market could become very tight if China starts refilling its LNG stocks ahead of winter, especially since they are not reselling LNG.",
"Early winter or any winter in the UK could lead to supply issues due to zero rough gas storage.",
"The cooler water in the Pacific could affect the jet stream later this winter, impacting weather patterns and natural gas demand."
],
"topics": [
"Natural Gas",
"Natural Gas Storage",
"Weather Forecasts (US, Europe, Asia)",
"Electricity Demand (ERCOT, PJM, MISO)",
"LNG Exports/Imports",
"Nuclear Outages",
"Tropical Storm Activity",
"Drought Conditions"
],
"summary": "The natural gas market is currently down, trading at $3.002 for the November contract, as it awaits today's storage report with expectations of a +64 BCF injection. While this is bearish compared to last year, it's bullish against the five-year average. The speaker highlights increased natural gas demand in ERCOT due to lower solar generation, potential for a very tight global LNG market if China refrains from reselling LNG, and upcoming cooler temperatures in the Northeast US and parts of Europe, which could support prices. US nuclear outages are also higher than last year, further boosting natural gas demand.",
"entities": [
{
"name": "Tim Beggins",
"type": "person",
"context": "President of Elk Trading Company"
},
{
"name": "Elk Trading Company",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Presenter of the daily natural gas report"
},
{
"name": "Natural Gas",
"type": "commodity",
"context": "Primary commodity discussed"
},
{
"name": "November Futures",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Specific natural gas contract"
},
{
"name": "EIA",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Source of storage data"
},
{
"name": "ERCOT",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Texas electricity grid operator"
},
{
"name": "Polo",
"type": "other",
"context": "Weather system bringing rain and overcast skies to Texas/Oklahoma"
},
{
"name": "PJM",
"type": "organization",
"context": "US electricity grid operator"
},
{
"name": "MISO",
"type": "organization",
"context": "US electricity grid operator"
},
{
"name": "Rockies",
"type": "region",
"context": "Region in US with cooler temperatures"
},
{
"name": "Northeast",
"type": "region",
"context": "Region in US with cooler temperatures"
},
{
"name": "New York City",
"type": "region",
"context": "City in Northeast US"
},
{
"name": "Pennsylvania",
"type": "region",
"context": "State in Northeast US"
},
{
"name": "New England",
"type": "region",
"context": "Region in Northeast US"
},
{
"name": "Chicago",
"type": "region",
"context": "City in Midwest US"
},
{
"name": "Central Valley of California",
"type": "region",
"context": "Region in US with warm temperatures"
},
{
"name": "Desert Southwest",
"type": "region",
"context": "Region in US with warm temperatures"
},
{
"name": "Arizona",
"type": "region",
"context": "State in US with warm temperatures"
},
{
"name": "Florida",
"type": "region",
"context": "State in US with warm temperatures"
},
{
"name": "Dakotas",
"type": "region",
"context": "States in US with warm air plume"
},
{
"name": "NOAA",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Source of weather outlooks"
},
{
"name": "China",
"type": "region",
"context": "Country with LNG import policies"
},
{
"name": "LNG",
"type": "commodity",
"context": "Liquefied Natural Gas"
},
{
"name": "Europe",
"type": "region",
"context": "Region with gas storage and weather discussed"
},
{
"name": "Belgium",
"type": "region",
"context": "Country in EU with gas storage levels"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
"type": "region",
"context": "Country in EU with gas storage levels"
},
{
"name": "Netherlands",
"type": "region",
"context": "Country in EU with gas storage levels"
},
{
"name": "United Kingdom",
"type": "region",
"context": "Country with gas storage and supply discussed"
},
{
"name": "Norway",
"type": "region",
"context": "Source of UK gas supply"
},
{
"name": "Ireland",
"type": "region",
"context": "Destination for some UK gas supply"
},
{
"name": "Japan",
"type": "region",
"context": "Country in Asia with weather and LNG futures discussed"
},
{
"name": "Korea",
"type": "region",
"context": "Country in Asia with weather and LNG futures discussed"
},
{
"name": "India",
"type": "region",
"context": "Country in Asia with weather discussed"
},
{
"name": "Guam",
"type": "region",
"context": "Location of a storm system"
},
{
"name": "Nolo",
"type": "other",
"context": "Remnant of a storm system"
},
{
"name": "Hawaii",
"type": "region",
"context": "State in US, west of which Nolo is pushing"
},
{
"name": "Rachel",
"type": "other",
"context": "Storm system near Mexico"
},
{
"name": "Mexico",
"type": "region",
"context": "Country near which Rachel is located"
},
{
"name": "Texas",
"type": "region",
"context": "State in US receiving rain from Polo remnants"
},
{
"name": "Oklahoma",
"type": "region",
"context": "State in US receiving rain from Polo remnants"
},
{
"name": "Dallas",
"type": "region",
"context": "City in Texas"
},
{
"name": "Austin",
"type": "region",
"context": "City in Texas"
},
{
"name": "San Antonio",
"type": "region",
"context": "City in Texas"
},
{
"name": "Panama",
"type": "region",
"context": "Country in Central America"
},
{
"name": "Bay of Campeche",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area in Gulf of Mexico with tropical activity"
},
{
"name": "Yucatan",
"type": "region",
"context": "Peninsula in Mexico"
},
{
"name": "Belize",
"type": "region",
"context": "Country in Central America"
},
{
"name": "Central America",
"type": "region",
"context": "Region receiving Saharan dust plume"
},
{
"name": "New Mexico",
"type": "region",
"context": "State in US with drought conditions"
},
{
"name": "Baja California",
"type": "region",
"context": "Peninsula in Mexico"
},
{
"name": "Southern California",
"type": "region",
"context": "Region in US"
},
{
"name": "Jet Stream",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Affected by Pacific water temperatures"
},
{
"name": "MTDR",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
},
{
"name": "MGY",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
},
{
"name": "CRGY",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
},
{
"name": "CRK",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
},
{
"name": "CNX",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
},
{
"name": "NOG",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
},
{
"name": "BKV",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
},
{
"name": "Landbridge Company LLC",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
}
],
"sentiment": "mixed",
"confidence": 0.9,
"key_points": [
{
"point": "Natural gas November contract (NGX26) is currently trading at $3.004, down 2.2 cents or 0.73%.",
"timestamp": "00:13",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Today is storage day, with expectations of a +64 BCF injection, which is bearish versus last year's +56 BCF but bullish versus the five-year average of +80 BCF.",
"timestamp": "00:28",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The daily pivot for natural gas is at 3.017, with first support at 2.975.",
"timestamp": "00:56",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "ERCOT system-wide demand is light today, under 73,000 megawatts, due to rain and overcast skies from the remnants of Polo, leading to less solar generation.",
"timestamp": "01:24",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Natural gas is currently picking up more of the market share in ERCOT, over 31,500 megawatts, representing 51.4% of the fuel mix.",
"timestamp": "01:44",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Cooler temperatures are expected in the Northeast US next week, with temperatures dropping into the 30s in New York City and 40s in New England.",
"timestamp": "02:43",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "China has instructed its three largest LNG importers not to resell LNG, which could lead to a very tight global market if they try to refill stocks ahead of winter.",
"timestamp": "05:15",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "European gas storage is at 71.5% fullness, with some countries like Belgium (62%), Germany (58%), and Netherlands (59%) showing lower levels, and the UK at about 33% full.",
"timestamp": "05:37",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "US nuclear outages are currently at 12 gigawatts, which is above last year's 10.3 gigawatts, helping natural gas demand.",
"timestamp": "12:20",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The plume of cooler water in the Pacific continues to push further east, now affecting the Pacific Northwest coast, Baja California, and Southern California, which could impact the jet stream later this winter.",
"timestamp": "12:48",
"importance": "medium"
}
],
"trade_ideas": [],
"price_levels": [
{
"note": "Current trading price",
"value": "3.004",
"instrument": "Natural Gas November Futures (NGX26)",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Daily pivot",
"value": "3.017",
"instrument": "Natural Gas November Futures (NGX26)",
"level_type": "pivot"
},
{
"note": "First support",
"value": "2.975",
"instrument": "Natural Gas November Futures (NGX26)",
"level_type": "support"
},
{
"note": "Resistance for the spread",
"value": "0.813",
"instrument": "Winter vs November Spread",
"level_type": "resistance"
},
{
"note": "Expected price today",
"value": "567",
"instrument": "PJM",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Expected price today",
"value": "262",
"instrument": "MISO",
"level_type": "other"
}
],
"time_horizon": "medium_term",
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"data_references": [
{
"value": "+64 BCF (expected)",
"metric": "Natural Gas Storage",
"period": "Weekly",
"source": "EIA"
},
{
"value": "+56 BCF",
"metric": "Natural Gas Storage",
"period": "Last Year",
"source": "EIA"
},
{
"value": "+80 BCF",
"metric": "Natural Gas Storage",
"period": "5-Year Average",
"source": "EIA"
},
{
"value": "Under 73,000 MW",
"metric": "System-Wide Demand",
"period": "Current Day",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "About 27,000 MW",
"metric": "Combined Wind and Solar Generation",
"period": "Current Day",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "Over 31,500 MW (51.4%)",
"metric": "Natural Gas Fuel Mix Share",
"period": "Current Day",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "Below 20,000 MW",
"metric": "Solar Peak Generation",
"period": "Expected",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "Over $567",
"metric": "Locational Marginal Price (PJM)",
"period": "Today",
"source": "National Grid (US)"
},
{
"value": "$262",
"metric": "Locational Marginal Price (MISO)",
"period": "Today",
"source": "National Grid (US)"
},
{
"value": "30s-40s",
"metric": "2m AGL Temperature (F)",
"period": "Next Week (Northeast US)",
"source": "ECMWF"
},
{
"value": "Below normal in New England, above normal in West",
"metric": "6-10 Day Temperature Outlook",
"period": "October 6-10, 2026",
"source": "NOAA"
},
{
"value": "Above normal in West, warms up a little in New England",
"metric": "8-14 Day Temperature Outlook",
"period": "October 8-14, 2026",
"source": "NOAA"
},
{
"value": "71.5%",
"metric": "European Gas Storage Fullness",
"period": "Current",
"source": "KYOS"
},
{
"value": "62%",
"metric": "Belgium Gas Storage Fullness",
"period": "Current",
"source": "KYOS"
},
{
"value": "58%",
"metric": "Germany Gas Storage Fullness",
"period": "Current",
"source": "KYOS"
},
{
"value": "59%",
"metric": "Netherlands Gas Storage Fullness",
"period": "Current",
"source": "KYOS"
},
{
"value": "16.24%",
"metric": "UK LNG Stored",
"period": "Current",
"source": "KYOS"
},
{
"value": "17.07%",
"metric": "UK Gas Stored",
"period": "Current",
"source": "KYOS"
},
{
"value": "0%",
"metric": "UK Rough Gas Storage",
"period": "Current",
"source": "KYOS"
},
{
"value": "12 GW",
"metric": "US Nuclear Outages",
"period": "Current",
"source": "EIA"
},
{
"value": "10.3 GW",
"metric": "US Nuclear Outages",
"period": "Last Year",
"source": "EIA"
}
],
"match_reasoning": "The video substantively discusses natural gas prices, storage, demand drivers, and weather forecasts relevant to natural gas markets."
},
"video_id": "dayKpukWeng",
"video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dayKpukWeng",
"transcript": "Good morning, natural gas. It's Thursday, October the 1st, 2026. I'm Tim Beggins, President of Elk Trading Company. And for the spot November contract, we're down. We're currently trading at $3.04 and 4 ticks, down 2.2 cents, or just about 0.73%. And as you can see, we've got some sideways bars for today and yesterday. Why? Because today is storage day. Expectations +64 BCF. That is bearish versus last year's +56, but bullish versus the five-year average of +80 BCF. So, we may just do nothing today until we see the storage report, and then we'll move if it's too far off of expectations. Let's see what happens when we roll the bones. Let's take a look at the hourly chart, and we are hanging around that daily pivot, which is 3.017. And as you can see right now, we went through first support at 2.975, but we didn't go any further. We couldn't go any further than 50% of that spread between first support and second support, so we bounced back toward the pivot. And again, here's what's going on. The RSI looks like it's trying to turn lower here. So, let's see what happens after the report today. And let's take a look at ERCOT. ERCOT light today, under 73,000 megawatts. Why? Polo. Yeah, it's bringing a lot of rain and overcast skies here, but that means less solar. So, today, we're only going to get a combined of about 27,000 megawatts of renewables, wind and solar. As a result, natural gas is picking up more of the market share, over 31,500 megawatts, which is 51.4% of the fuel mix currently right now. And that is because solar is so light and expected to only peak out below 20,000 megawatts. Let's take a look at the National Grid, and here is the PJM expected to be over $567 today, and MISO behind me here at $262. Those are the two areas where we're going to get a combination of cooler weather and warmer weather at the same time. So, things are spiking here because we also have some maintenance. It is the fall after all, and therefore we do have to take some of these plants down for maintenance ahead of winter. So, we're getting a lot of volatility in the electric markets. Let's take a look at the weather here. Excuse me there. And as you can see, we continue to stay fairly warm across the South and Southeast. The cooler temperatures are coming down into the Rockies here and into the Northeast next week. Look at that. We're getting into the 30s right there. As we can see here, 40s, about 46, 48 degrees here in New York City, though, 39s in Pennsylvania. You can see 40s up into New England, 53 over in Chicago. That is that cooler weather coming through. And then we get some warmer temperatures coming back in through the mid-section of the country. There's that plume of warm air that keeps pushing up toward the Dakotas here, and it stays warm in the Central Valley of California, across the Desert Southwest in Arizona, and of course, Florida. And as you can see, going forward here, look at that, triple digit temperatures still Arizona in the Central Valley here, and California, uh, near the Salton Sea there. And as you can see, cooler temperatures are still pushing through into the Rockies here, and cooler temperatures are pushing into New England. So, there's the cooler weather, but look at the warmth continuing for at least the next few days. There is the cold temperatures, I shouldn't say cold, cooler temperatures coming in, be cold down here in Texas. But we're at 72 degrees in Houston, while Denver's going to be 27 on the 12th. So, there's some good news there for maybe this ski resorts here, which will be opening up soon. And as you can see, as we go all the way out to the end of the forecast here, most of the warmer temperatures are locked into California, and parts of South Texas, all the way back up toward Virginia. Let's take a look at the 6-10 day temperature outlook, and as you can see, below normal temperatures up in New England. That's what we spoke about in the 30s and 40s there. Above normal temperatures are locked into the West here. And that continues in the 8-14 day temperature outlook, although it warms up a little bit in New England. Let's take a look at the front to back spreads here. And as you can see, you know, we're rolling the dice here today on storage. +64 is expectations. But let's go what's going on here for the winter versus November spread. Well, it looks like it's bouncing higher here. As you can see, the RSI is not making new lows with the price action making new lows. So, we've got convergence here. And that means that maybe we've got to move back up toward that gap we filled here, which was first support, now is going to act as resistance here, which will be about 81.3 cents right now. We'll see if that continues to widen out after the storage report comes out. What else could drive this? Well, China has told its three largest importers that they are not to resell LNG. That's right. They're not pushing LNG back into the marketplace. And if China comes back in trying to refill LNG stocks ahead of winter, this market will become very, very tight globally. Let's take a look at Europe here, and it's 71.5% full right now. That's good news. Injections are picking back up here in the last day. And as you can see, there's still some trouble across the EU. We've still got Belgium only at 62%, Germany 58%. That's terrible news. Netherlands 59%, and of course, the United Kingdom, which we'll show here, is about 33% full. And here is the JKM for the January contract. As of yesterday, it was up over 4.32% here, and it looks like this is going to turn to the upside. Let's take a look at Europe here, and it is a little bit warmer in France right now. We get some cooler temperatures coming back in here, about the 7th, 8th, and 9th here. That's good news for France, Spain, and the UK. And as you can see, though, warmer temperatures show back up around the 15th. So, warm in the interior parts of Europe here, the populated centers of Europe, by October the 16th. Let's take a look here at the UK. I'm going to switch over here. And as you can see, there is no storage withdrawals. That's good news. Where is the supply? All from Norway, basically. A little bit from LNG. Where is it going to? Nothing's going to the Netherlands. Nothing is going to Belgium. Ha, finally woke up. And let's see. There's a little bit obviously going to Ireland, but the rest of it is going into storage. Injections are being consumed locally. Finally, some good news there in the UK. And let's take a look at the UK. LNG stored 16.24%, gas stored 17.07%. So, about 33 and change, uh, percent full. Rough storage still zero. This is not good news if they get an early winter, or any winter for that matter. Let's take a look at Asia here, and it is going to be a little cooler right now around Beijing here, into the Koreas and parts of Japan. And it then it warms back up here as we get into about the 7th here. So, 6th and 7th, there it is. We get some cooler temperatures in Europe, warmer temperatures in Asia. And this continues back and forth here a little bit, but as you can see, going out at the end of the period here, warmer temperatures around October the 16th for Beijing, all the way down the Eastern provinces. India stays a little cooler. Japan is fairly neutral. Koreas are a little warmer. Let's take a look at the weather. Well, there's very little precipitation running into India right now. That's not good news. They need more rain here for their crop growing here. But we could see storms. This is Guam right here. It is this big system is pushing to the east here. Another system pushed out to the Northeast here, away from Japan. As we move across, there's Nolo. That's the remnants pushing west of Hawaii. And here is Rachel. Rachel is going to stay out to sea. That's good news, I think. And there is the remnants of Polo right now in the Panhandle of Texas, Oklahoma. And as you can see, bringing a bunch of rain from Dallas all the way back toward Austin and San Antonio. Right now, we're going to keep a careful eye on the Atlantic here because, well, we don't have anything developing, but there's some remnants here. There is something right here. There is another system here we got to keep a careful eye on. And as you can see, it's very, very active from Miami all the way back toward Panama. So, we'll keep an eye on this because late in the season, it needs to be in the Gulf. And let's take a look at Ras Laffan. Nothing is loading here. This is an LNG tanker, but it is not loading at the normal docks here. It is just simply at the at the wharf. Hopefully, picking up supplies, maybe transferring out crews, but it is just been sitting there for days. Let's take a look at US LNG, and this is Cameron picking back up here, 1.461. That's good news there. Let's see if it continues to ramp as cooler temperatures move in. Here is Freeport. Let's switch over here. Sorry about that. Freeport right now running about 1.788. So, that's down just slightly there. That's good news, though, it's steady as she goes. How about Creole Trail, one of the pipelines that feeds Sabine Pass? Running 1.417. And that's out of 1.7. Still could be a little bit more improvement here. Let's see what happens. And there is Corpus Christi, running 2.516. That's great news. Out of 2.75. Let's see some more good news. Well, Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass is running only 1.528, down a little bit from yesterday, I believe. And there is Plaquemines, running over 4 BCF. Great news there. How about some more good news? Golden Pass, 583,000. Yay. Let's keep going. Let's see if it can continue to get above 600,000 here. That would be great news. And let's take a look at the Gulf here. This is the Gulf of America/Mexico. It is active again from Miami back toward Panama. There is some stuff here off to the west of the Bay of Campeche. So, it's getting more active. Much more activity here on thunderstorms and humidity. So, let's see if something pops up in the next seven days. But right now, there is nothing expected in the Mid-Atlantic. But we do have some systems out there. As you can see, is this the remnants of Hannah? What about over here in off of Africa? There's some more stuff coming off here. So, we'll keep a careful eye on it. Certainly active out there, but nothing yet has formed. And let's take a look. There is the global hazards. It is the Bay of Campeche is our main focus here as we go through October the 7th through the 13th. But after that, quiet as a mouse. And there is the long-range tropical outlook. We've got a slight chance around the Bay of Campeche and the Yucatan, all the way back to Belize. But right now, nothing has formed. We'll keep a careful eye on it because it's that time of year. And how about the Saharan Air Layer? Well, almost nothing is coming off of Africa right now. The trade winds have died down a little bit here. There's a little bit of plume moving through the Windward Islands and then pushing off into Central America. But otherwise, it's quiet. And here is the drought. Drought monitor. This is being improved by Polo today. But as you can see, it was still very, very dry in the Panhandle of Texas, Oklahoma, back into New Mexico. That's where we might see some improvement next week. We definitely need the the rain in this particular space, especially across Oklahoma, which has become more and more dry. And let's take a look at the US nuclear fleet. We're currently running right now at 12 gigawatts are offline. That's above last year's 10.3 gigawatts. And as you can see, we continue to push out toward the peak here, which could be somewhere between October the 17th and the 23rd, where we double peaked last year. Let's see what happens here. So, somewhere between October 17th and the end of the month should be the peak of US nuclear outages. In the meantime, that helps natural gas. And there's the plume of cooler water we've been talking about, further east again. Continues to push closer and closer. Now some of it is on the Pacific Northwest coast here. As you can see, with Rachel moving in, that might even bring even more cooler waters closer and closer toward Baja California and Southern California. We'll keep a careful eye on this because this could affect the jet stream later this winter. And how about stocks in the oil and gas E&P sector? Stocks between $2 and $10 billion. Have a high short float, over 10%. It's a sea of green, other than BKV here, which is down 0.13% here. Behind me, Landbridge, up 0.05%. So, recapping here for the spot November contract, we are currently trading at 3.002, down 2.4 cents or 0.79%. We are awaiting storage. Expectations +64 BCF. Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below. Please hit that like and subscribe button. Thanks for listening. We'll see you tomorrow.",
"description": "NG Stock Watch List Oil & Gas EMP Sector\nMarket Cap 2-10B, High short float over 10% \nBKV | CNX | CRGY | CRK | LB | MGY | MTDR | NOG",
"match_reason": "Matched natural gas (mode: any)",
"published_at": "2026-10-01T14:30:07Z",
"thumbnail_url": "https://i.ytimg.com/vi/dayKpukWeng/hqdefault.jpg",
"reporting_date": "2026-10-01",
"analysis_source": "gemini-2.5-flash",
"duration_seconds": null,
"matched_keywords": [
"natural gas"
],
"transcript_available": true
}
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