Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

September 30, 2026 at 03:17 PM

Completed At

September 30, 2026 at 03:18 PM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

Mid-Week Natural Gas Report - November Futures (NGX26 @ 2.990) | 09.30.2026

Data Preview

{
  "title": "Mid-Week Natural Gas Report - November Futures (NGX26 @ 2.990) | 09.30.2026",
  "filter": {
    "keywords": [
      "natural gas"
    ],
    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
    ],
    "semantic_filter": true
  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@ElKTradingCoLLC",
    "title": "ELK TRADING Co LLC | Natural Gas Trading",
    "handle": "ElKTradingCoLLC",
    "channel_id": "UCcvcKcyIO_nhZrRubvfxO3w"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "Storage getting too close to full without sufficient weather demand or improvement in LNG exports.",
      "Increased water surcharges at the Panama Canal due to low Gatun Lake levels and potential El Niño winter."
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Natural Gas Futures",
      "Natural Gas Storage (US)",
      "Natural Gas Storage (Europe)",
      "Weather Forecast (US)",
      "Weather Forecast (Europe)",
      "Weather Forecast (Asia)",
      "LNG Exports (US)",
      "Panama Canal",
      "Energy Markets",
      "Technical Analysis"
    ],
    "summary": "The natural gas market is currently experiencing downward pressure, with the November contract trading lower. This is attributed to factors like hedge fund window dressing at the end of the quarter, strong renewable energy generation in Texas, and cooler temperatures moving into parts of the US and Europe. While US storage is expected to be neutral, European storage levels remain a concern, particularly in Germany and the Netherlands.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "Tim Beggins",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "President of Elk Trading Company"
      },
      {
        "name": "Elk Trading Company",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Presenter of the report"
      },
      {
        "name": "Natural Gas",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Primary topic of the report"
      },
      {
        "name": "Hedge Funds",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Engaging in window dressing"
      },
      {
        "name": "ERCOT",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Texas electricity grid operator"
      },
      {
        "name": "Houston",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Area with cooling temperatures"
      },
      {
        "name": "Texas",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Weather and energy demand"
      },
      {
        "name": "New England",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Cooler temperatures expected"
      },
      {
        "name": "Rockies",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Cooler temperatures and need for precipitation"
      },
      {
        "name": "Denver",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Expected low temperature"
      },
      {
        "name": "Florida",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Above normal temperatures expected"
      },
      {
        "name": "Western US",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Above normal temperatures expected"
      },
      {
        "name": "Northern Plains",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Cooling temperatures"
      },
      {
        "name": "Great Lakes",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Warmer temperatures lingering"
      },
      {
        "name": "California",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Warmer temperatures"
      },
      {
        "name": "New Jersey",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Warmer temperatures"
      },
      {
        "name": "Europe",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Natural gas storage and weather"
      },
      {
        "name": "Belgium",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Gas storage levels"
      },
      {
        "name": "Germany",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Gas storage levels, largest consumer in Europe"
      },
      {
        "name": "France",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Gas storage levels and cooling temperatures"
      },
      {
        "name": "Netherlands",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Gas storage levels"
      },
      {
        "name": "UK",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Gas storage and supply"
      },
      {
        "name": "Ireland",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Cooler temperatures expected"
      },
      {
        "name": "Norway",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Source of UK gas supply"
      },
      {
        "name": "Asia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Weather patterns"
      },
      {
        "name": "Mongolia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Cooler weather"
      },
      {
        "name": "Beijing",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Cooler weather, then warmer"
      },
      {
        "name": "Japan",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Cooler weather, tropical storm"
      },
      {
        "name": "Koreas",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Cooler weather, then warmer"
      },
      {
        "name": "India",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Drought conditions, little rain"
      },
      {
        "name": "Shanghai",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Warmer temperatures"
      },
      {
        "name": "Mexico",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Tropical storm Rachel"
      },
      {
        "name": "New Mexico",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Moisture from Polo"
      },
      {
        "name": "Cuba",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Storm activity"
      },
      {
        "name": "Mid-Atlantic",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Tropical storm Hanna"
      },
      {
        "name": "Hawaii",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Remnants of Nolo"
      },
      {
        "name": "Panama Canal",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Water levels and transit costs"
      },
      {
        "name": "El Niño",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Record El Niño winter expected"
      },
      {
        "name": "Cameron LNG",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "LNG facility in the US"
      },
      {
        "name": "Freeport LNG",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "LNG facility in the US"
      },
      {
        "name": "Creole Trail",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Pipeline feeding Sabine Pass LNG"
      },
      {
        "name": "Corpus Christi LNG",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "LNG facility in the US"
      },
      {
        "name": "Calcasieu Pass LNG",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "LNG facility in the US"
      },
      {
        "name": "Golden Pass Pipeline",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Pipeline with commissioning issues"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "bearish",
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "Natural gas November contract is currently trading lower at 2.971, down 4.1 cents or 1.4%.",
        "timestamp": "00:14",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The 13 and 48-period exponential moving averages have crossed to the downside, indicating a bearish trend.",
        "timestamp": "00:38",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Today is the last day of September and the third quarter, which may lead to hedge funds doing window dressing and putting extra pressure on the market.",
        "timestamp": "00:48",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "On the hourly chart, natural gas is well below the daily pivot of 3.056 and is holding at first support at 2.955, with the RSI in oversold conditions.",
        "timestamp": "01:00",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "ERCOT system-wide demand is just under 81,000 MW, with renewables providing up to 48,000 MW of available capacity, leading to natural gas only pulling 32% of the fuel mix.",
        "timestamp": "01:21",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Weather forecasts show warmer temperatures pushing into the Southeast and Desert Southwest of the US, while cooler temperatures are coming into the Rockies and New England.",
        "timestamp": "02:43",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Overnight temperatures in the Rockies are cooling off, and they need precipitation as snow levels are low from last year.",
        "timestamp": "03:11",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The 6-10 day temperature outlook shows below normal temperatures in New England and above normal in Florida and the West, with most of the rest of the country near normal.",
        "timestamp": "03:51",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The November through March natural gas strip is down 1.6 cents today to 3.216, with the RSI still in sell mode and continuing in a downward channel.",
        "timestamp": "04:16",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The upcoming storage report is expected to be +63 to +67 BCF, which is bearish versus last year's +56 BCF but bullish versus the five-year average of +80 BCF, making it a neutral report.",
        "timestamp": "04:44",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "European gas storage is only 71.3% full, with Germany and the Netherlands at 58%, and the UK at about 35% (16.41% LNG, 17.11% pipeline storage).",
        "timestamp": "05:17",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Cooler temperatures are expected to move into the UK, Ireland, France, and Germany by October 7th, pushing warmer air to the East.",
        "timestamp": "06:24",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The UK is not pulling from storage, with supply coming from Norway and LNG, and they are now pushing some gas into storage.",
        "timestamp": "06:54",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "In Asia, cooler weather is in Mongolia, Japan, and the Koreas, while warmer temperatures are coming back into the northern tier of China, Beijing, and Shanghai.",
        "timestamp": "07:43",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "India is still experiencing drought in the South and needs more monsoon rains.",
        "timestamp": "09:28",
        "importance": "low"
      },
      {
        "point": "Tropical Storm Rachel is expected to become a major hurricane by this evening but is forecast to stay offshore, moving west to northwest.",
        "timestamp": "09:08",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The remnants of Polo are pushing moisture into New Mexico and Texas.",
        "timestamp": "09:01",
        "importance": "low"
      },
      {
        "point": "Cameron LNG is running at 1.407 BCF, Freeport LNG at about 1.78 BCF, Creole Trail at 1.46 BCF, Corpus Christi at 2.5 BCF, and Calcasieu Pass at 1.64 BCF.",
        "timestamp": "09:58",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Golden Pass Pipeline was off last night and has only ramped up to 485,000 MMBtu, indicating continued commissioning issues, despite Train 2 being mechanically operational by year-end.",
        "timestamp": "10:48",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "A record El Niño winter is expected, which could impact precipitation and potentially increase water surcharges for Panama Canal transits.",
        "timestamp": "13:00",
        "importance": "high"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [
      {
        "note": "Current trading price",
        "value": "2.971",
        "instrument": "Natural Gas November contract (NGX26)",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "First support level on hourly chart",
        "value": "2.955",
        "instrument": "Natural Gas November contract (NGX26)",
        "level_type": "support"
      },
      {
        "note": "Daily pivot",
        "value": "3.056",
        "instrument": "Natural Gas November contract (NGX26)",
        "level_type": "pivot"
      },
      {
        "note": "Current trading price",
        "value": "3.216",
        "instrument": "Natural Gas November-March strip",
        "level_type": "other"
      }
    ],
    "time_horizon": "short_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "value": "just under 81,000 MW",
        "metric": "System-Wide Demand",
        "source": "ERCOT"
      },
      {
        "value": "up to 48,000 MW",
        "metric": "Renewable Capacity",
        "source": "ERCOT"
      },
      {
        "value": "32% (20,500 MW)",
        "metric": "Natural Gas Fuel Mix",
        "source": "ERCOT"
      },
      {
        "value": "getting toward $100",
        "metric": "Locational Marginal Price - Cawso",
        "source": "National Grid (UK)"
      },
      {
        "value": "up to $528",
        "metric": "Locational Marginal Price - SPP",
        "source": "National Grid (UK)"
      },
      {
        "value": "up to $405",
        "metric": "Locational Marginal Price - PJM",
        "source": "National Grid (UK)"
      },
      {
        "value": "up to $93.5",
        "metric": "Locational Marginal Price - NISO",
        "source": "National Grid (UK)"
      },
      {
        "value": "34 degrees in Denver",
        "metric": "2m AGL Temperature (F)",
        "period": "Oct 12, 2026",
        "source": "ECMWF"
      },
      {
        "value": "Below normal in New England, Above normal in Florida and West, Near normal elsewhere",
        "metric": "6-10 Day Temperature Outlook",
        "period": "Oct 5-9, 2026",
        "source": "NOAA"
      },
      {
        "value": "Below normal in New England, Above normal in Florida and West, Near normal elsewhere",
        "metric": "8-14 Day Temperature Outlook",
        "period": "Oct 7-13, 2026",
        "source": "NOAA"
      },
      {
        "value": "+63 to +67 BCF (expected)",
        "metric": "Natural Gas Storage",
        "period": "upcoming report",
        "source": "EIA"
      },
      {
        "value": "+56 BCF",
        "metric": "Natural Gas Storage",
        "period": "last year",
        "source": "EIA"
      },
      {
        "value": "+80 BCF",
        "metric": "Natural Gas Storage",
        "period": "5-year average",
        "source": "EIA"
      },
      {
        "value": "71.3%",
        "metric": "EU Storage Fullness",
        "source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
      },
      {
        "value": "58%",
        "metric": "Germany Gas Storage Fullness",
        "source": "ENTSOG"
      },
      {
        "value": "58%",
        "metric": "Netherlands Gas Storage Fullness",
        "source": "ENTSOG"
      },
      {
        "value": "35% (16.41% LNG, 17.11% pipeline)",
        "metric": "UK Total Gas Storage Fullness",
        "source": "Terranolt"
      },
      {
        "value": "84.8 ft",
        "metric": "Gatun Lake Water Level",
        "period": "Sep 30, 2026",
        "source": "Panama Canal"
      }
    ],
    "match_reasoning": "The video substantively discusses natural gas futures prices, storage levels in the US and Europe, and weather forecasts impacting demand for natural gas."
  },
  "video_id": "uDYAQZCfGew",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDYAQZCfGew",
  "transcript": "Good morning, natural gas. It's Wednesday, September the 30th, 2026. I'm Tim Beggins, President of Elk Trading Company. And for the spot November contract, we're down. We're currently trading at 2.9710, up, uh, excuse me, down 4.1 cents right now, 2.70, even, or about 1.4%. Uh, as you can see, right now, we continue to waffle lower here after that MXP 100 line was put back in service over the weekend. We've completely come off here, and the 13 and 48-period exponential moving averages have crossed to the downside. Again, we're moving back toward 2.90. That appears to be the path of least resistance. Today is the last day of September, or the third quarter. So, hedge funds might be doing a little bit of window dressing and putting a little bit extra pressure on the board. Let's take a look at the hourly chart, and as you can see, we're well below the daily pivot. Today came in at 3.056. We are holding right at first support, 2.955. The RSI is in oversold condition right now. So, we'll look to see if this first support holds here, and then we waffle back a little higher later today. Let's take a look at the ERCOT here, and it is going to be just under 81,000 MW here. Yes, it's cooling down slightly in the Houston area here. But here's the renewables, up to 48,000 MW of available capacity. As a result, natural gas is only pulling 32% of the fuel mix right now, just over 20,500 MW. Wind is strong for the moment, over 22,000 MW. It will continue to slowly decline as the day progresses here, down toward 14,000. And let's take a look at the National Grid, and yes, we continue to have some spikes here in the National Grid. This is, uh, Cawso here getting toward $100. Look at the volatility over in SPP, up to 528. And this is PJM getting all the way up to 405. Again, we see some volatility in these early morning hours here. NISO getting up to 93 and a half. So, volatility, some maintenance going on, weather still lingering. Parts of the country are still warmer than normal. Parts of the country are starting to cool down. Let's take a look at the weather forecast. We switched the models here for suggestion from our community here, and gotten just over to the temperature map. Because, yeah, summer is over. So, let's take a look at how we do. And as you can see, we continue to push the warmer temperatures down into the Southeast and toward the Desert Southwest. The rest of the country is starting to cool off. We start to see below, not below normal temperatures, cooler temperatures coming into the Rockies here. Cooler temperatures coming into New England. As you can see, there's that funny-looking, uh, face here in Denver, 34 degrees here on the 12th of October. So, it's going to look a little odd there. There's 27 degrees. So, overnight temperatures are starting to cool off a little bit in the Rockies. They could use some precipitation because the snow is really quite low from last year. They need a lot of snow to get those rivers back up and running again. So, let's take a look as we go through the forecast all the way through here. You could start to see warmer temperatures are still hanging around the Great Lakes because they're warm. And that right now, that is still pushing the warmer temperatures to the South along this tier here in California, all the way from Texas, back up toward New Jersey. But it is getting cooler in the Northern Plains here as we get closer and closer to the mid-part of October. Let's take a look at that 6-10 day temperature outlook, and as you can see, below normal temperatures up in New England. That's good news there. Above, of course, in Florida. It's great time to go to Florida. And above in the West. It continues to stay above normal in the Western half of the country. And that continues in the 8-14 day temperature outlook. As you can see right now, most of the rest of the country, though, is near normal. And let's take a look at the winter, and that continues to ease up here. This is the November through March strip. And as you can see right now, we are down again, 1.6 cents today to 3.2160. RSI still in sell mode. We continue to be in this sell downward channel right now. Yes, we did pop above it with MXP 100 line outage, but we gave it all back and then some as we continue to ease up. What's going on? Well, storage is coming out tomorrow. Expectations, +63 to +67. But that's bearish versus last year's +56, but bullish versus the five-year average, +80. So, this is going to be a neutral storage report. And as temperatures cool off, we've got to start worrying about one other thing. What happens when storage gets too close to full? That could be a problem unless we've got some weather and improvement in LNG. Let's take a look at Europe, and that is in a tougher situation, only 71.3% full. Again, they've got only four weeks to go. Injections have eased up in the last two days. Not great news there. And as you can see, the same problems. Belgium only 62%. The big dog, Germany, 58%. They're the largest consumer of natural gas in Europe, and they are only at 58%. France doing much better. And of course, as you can see here, Netherlands also at 58%. The UK is really about 35%. I don't know why there's discrepancy, but we'll we'll look at those numbers in just a second. And here is the UK, and this is in pence per therm. Right now, up 2.31% because we are still waffling on the Strait of Hormuz, and there is some concern that weather will be coming in. So, let's take a look at Europe here. And this is warmer temperatures right now for the last day of September. Again, this is the last day of the third quarter. So, there is some window dressing from hedge funds on positions across all assets. And as you can see, we get cooler temperatures start to come in here into the October the 7th. It still stays fairly warm. There's the cool temperatures coming in October the 7th into the UK and Ireland, down into France and Germany, pushing some of this warmer air to the East before it starts coming back a little bit in the northern tier of the country. So, good news here. It's cooling off potentially in France. Let's take a look at the UK, and I'm going to switch over here for a second. And as you can see, good news. They're not pulling from storage. That's great news. Supply is all from Norway and a little bit of LNG. Where are they sending gas? Well, they're not sending it to the Netherlands. That's that BBL. But they are still sending it to Belgium, still sending it to Ireland. And of course, now they're pushing some gas into storage. So, that may be the bump up in that pence per therm pricing because they're putting gas finally into some storage. But here it is. Let's take a look at total storage in the UK, and it is 16.41% full from LNG, and 17.11% full from natural gas pipeline storage. So, there it is. It's about 35% full. But rough storage, the biggest field, still zero. Let's take a look at Asia, and it's a mixed bag here. It is cooler up in Mongolia. That presses into Beijing, keeping the northern capital cool. And as you can see, there is some cooler weather coming through into Japan and the Koreas here. But we do see some warmer temperatures coming back in. There it is, October the 7th. So, cooler temperatures coming into Europe, October the 7th, but warmer temperatures into China. India stays fairly cool at this point. But you can see, boom, there is that warmer temperature in the northern tier of the country. Still staying fairly warm for the Koreas and Beijing, all the way down to Shanghai. Let's take a look at the weather out here, and there is little rain going into India. We'll talk about that in a second here. There is this storm here, uh, Surigae, I believe, is how you pronounce it, pushing past Japan. This system here in the Marianas, uh, Mariana Islands is going to be pushing up as well toward Japan, but doesn't expect to, uh, make landfall there. Watching this system here, there is the remnants of Nolo, pushing past the Hawaiian Islands. There is Rachel. Rachel is expected to stay offshore. And onshore, though, into New Mexico right now, in Texas, is Polo. Polo, as you can see, pushing all of this moisture back up into the United States here. Let's take a look at Rachel, and there she is. Hurricane Rachel is expected to be a major hurricane by this evening. By 11:00, it is a major, major hurricane. So, be careful out there, but it is not making landfall. It is expected to stay west to the northwest here over the next few days. Let's take a look at India. Yep, it's still drought in the South here. So, they need some more monsoon rains, and it doesn't look like they're going to get anything over the next week. Let's take a look at the LNG. Nothing is loading at Ross Lafon. So, we'll just point our picture here toward Plaquemines. That's right. Venture Global's Plaquemines facility, just south of New Orleans. There are two tankers loading right now, Venture Iberia and Lake Modro. And let's take a look at the US. Cameron has come off a little bit here, down to 1.407. And let's take a look over here. There we go. And there is Freeport, running just about 1.78, 79 right now. So, that's a little bit off right here today. Still a little bit lighter there at, uh, Freeport. So, here is Creole Trail, feeding Sabine Pass, and it is running 1.46. Right now, Plaquemines, excuse me, Corpus Christi is running 2.5. That's good news there. Here is Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass, running 1.64, excuse me. That has been standard right there for the last few weeks. And here is Plaquemines. That is running 4 BCF. So, that's good news there. Golden Pass, though, it was off last night, down to about 113,000 MMBtu. And now it's only ramped up to 485,000 MMBtu. So, still, still commissioning baby teeth. I don't know what's going on here, teething problems. But they need to ramp up as weather cools off because Train 2 is supposed to be mechanically operational by the end of the year. Let's take a look at the Gulf here. And as you can see, it's fairly quiet. There is some storm activity across Cuba right now, pushing up into Florida. That's unusual right now. And out in the tropics here, we've only got Hanna out in the Mid-Atlantic here. It is down to 40 miles an hour. Pressure is still 1,006 millibars, but moving slow, east, north, east, southeast. I can't talk today. 5 miles an hour. Quite a strange track there. Let's take a look at the Saharan Air Layer. There's a little bit of dust out in just east of the Windward Islands. But the trade winds have started calm down. And as you can see, there is still a just a little bit of dust coming off of Africa. Not much there, but there is very little in the way of storm activity. And again, we're watching this pool of cooler waters here, starting to form up again around Hawaii, pushing eastward toward the Pacific Northwest here, and pushing over toward Central Mexico. Of course, here is the pool of warmer temperatures coming all the way off of Peru, all the way back to the International Date Line. Obviously, this looks like it's going to be a record El Niño winter. And lastly, let's look at the Panama Canal. It is running 84.8%, excuse me, 84.8 feet at Lake Gatun here. And that is good news, but it is still below normal. Should be getting to 85.5 feet here. Again, we watch this because if there is a super El Niño this winter, and precipitation dries up, that means that these water, uh, these transits here are going to be more costly because of the water surcharge increases.",
  "description": "NG Stock Watch List Oil & Gas EMP Sector\nMarket Cap 2-10B, High short float over 10% \nBKV | CNX | CRGY | CRK | LB | MGY | MTDR | NOG",
  "match_reason": "Matched natural gas (mode: any)",
  "published_at": "2026-09-30T14:33:18Z",
  "thumbnail_url": "https://i.ytimg.com/vi/uDYAQZCfGew/hqdefault.jpg",
  "reporting_date": "2026-09-30",
  "analysis_source": "gemini-2.5-flash",
  "duration_seconds": null,
  "matched_keywords": [
    "natural gas"
  ],
  "transcript_available": true
}