Elk Trading - Natural Gas - Run #3125
Reporting Date: 2026-09-18
Completed
Run Details
- State
- Completed
- Started At
- September 18, 2026 at 03:17 PM
- Completed At
- September 18, 2026 at 03:18 PM
- Duration
- 2 minutes
- Headline
- Natural Gas Weekly Recap - October Futures (NGV26 @ 2.928) | 09.18.2026
Data Preview
{
"title": "Natural Gas Weekly Recap - October Futures (NGV26 @ 2.928) | 09.18.2026",
"filter": {
"keywords": [
"natural gas"
],
"match_mode": "any",
"match_fields": [
"title",
"description"
],
"semantic_filter": true
},
"source": "youtube",
"channel": {
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/@ElKTradingCoLLC",
"title": "ELK TRADING Co LLC | Natural Gas Trading",
"handle": "ElKTradingCoLLC",
"channel_id": "UCcvcKcyIO_nhZrRubvfxO3w"
},
"matched": true,
"insights": {
"risks": [
"Vulnerability in the EIA storage report, with widening deficits to last year and narrowing surpluses to the five-year average.",
"El Niño is expected to bring a lot of volatility to the back end of winter.",
"Aging infrastructure in the power grid, combined with extreme heat, can lead to price spikes and instability.",
"The increasing demand from data centers is eliminating seasonality in power demand, creating challenges for natural gas and power markets.",
"Low gas storage levels in the UK (around 34% full) pose a very dangerous situation for the upcoming winter.",
"Commissioning problems at Golden Pass Train 1 mean it's not fully up to operational capacity.",
"Exceptional drought conditions in the US interior West indicate a need for significant rain, which may not be met."
],
"topics": [
"Natural Gas",
"LNG",
"EIA Storage",
"Weather Forecasts",
"ERCOT",
"Power Grid",
"European Gas Storage",
"UK Gas Storage",
"Asian Weather",
"Tropical Storms",
"El Niño",
"Drought",
"Oil & Gas Stocks"
],
"summary": "The natural gas market is currently trading sideways, unable to break the $3.00 mark, despite recent bullish EIA reports and supportive weather forecasts. LNG exports have slipped, and there are concerns about vulnerabilities in US storage levels, particularly in the South Central region. European storage levels are also a concern, especially in Germany and the UK, which are significantly below target. The speaker highlights the impact of increasing solar capacity and data centers on the power grid, leading to reduced seasonality in demand and potential strain on fossil fuel generation during winter, which is expected to be a 'super El Niño' winter, bringing significant volatility.",
"entities": [
{
"name": "Natural Gas",
"type": "commodity",
"context": "Natural gas futures are trading sideways, unable to break the $3.00 mark."
},
{
"name": "Tim Beggins",
"type": "person",
"context": "President of Elk Trading Company."
},
{
"name": "Elk Trading Company",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Tim Beggins is the President of Elk Trading Company."
},
{
"name": "EIA",
"type": "organization",
"context": "A bullish EIA report was released, with another expected next week."
},
{
"name": "LNG",
"type": "concept",
"context": "LNG has slipped again, and there are concerns about its impact on natural gas prices."
},
{
"name": "ERCOT",
"type": "organization",
"context": "ERCOT system-wide demand is over 85,000 MW."
},
{
"name": "MISO",
"type": "organization",
"context": "MISO is seeing early morning power price spikes."
},
{
"name": "PJM",
"type": "organization",
"context": "PJM is experiencing power price volatility."
},
{
"name": "National Weather Service",
"type": "organization",
"context": "The National Weather Service provides heat risk and temperature outlooks."
},
{
"name": "NOAA",
"type": "organization",
"context": "NOAA CPC ENSO Probabilities are discussed."
},
{
"name": "Climate Prediction Center",
"type": "organization",
"context": "The Climate Prediction Center issues ENSO probabilities."
},
{
"name": "Kyos",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Kyos European Gas Analytics provides data on European gas storage."
},
{
"name": "MarineTraffic",
"type": "organization",
"context": "MarineTraffic is used to track LNG tankers."
},
{
"name": "Sempra",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Sempra's Cameron LNG facility is discussed."
},
{
"name": "Cheniere",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Cheniere's Creole Trail and Corpus Christi pipelines are mentioned."
},
{
"name": "Venture Global",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines facilities are discussed."
},
{
"name": "Golden Pass",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Golden Pass Pipeline is experiencing commissioning problems."
},
{
"name": "Landbridge Company LLC",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Landbridge Company LLC stock is down."
},
{
"name": "MTDR",
"type": "organization",
"context": "MTDR stock is down."
},
{
"name": "CNX",
"type": "organization",
"context": "CNX stock is down."
},
{
"name": "CRK",
"type": "organization",
"context": "CRK stock is down."
},
{
"name": "CRGY",
"type": "organization",
"context": "CRGY stock is down."
},
{
"name": "NOG",
"type": "organization",
"context": "NOG stock is down."
},
{
"name": "BKV",
"type": "organization",
"context": "BKV stock is down."
},
{
"name": "Japan",
"type": "region",
"context": "Tropical Cyclone DuJuan is expected to head towards Tokyo but stay offshore."
},
{
"name": "Tokyo",
"type": "region",
"context": "Tropical Cyclone DuJuan is expected to head towards Tokyo but stay offshore, cooling the eastern coast."
},
{
"name": "China",
"type": "region",
"context": "Eastern parts of China are expected to stay warm until early October."
},
{
"name": "Eastern India",
"type": "region",
"context": "Some moisture is coming into Eastern India."
},
{
"name": "Southeast Asia",
"type": "region",
"context": "Some moisture is coming into parts of Southeast Asia."
},
{
"name": "Mongolia",
"type": "region",
"context": "Cooler weather is expected in Mongolia."
},
{
"name": "Eastern Siberia",
"type": "region",
"context": "Cooler weather is expected in Eastern Siberia."
},
{
"name": "UK",
"type": "region",
"context": "UK gas storage is only 34% full, posing a dangerous situation for winter."
},
{
"name": "Germany",
"type": "region",
"context": "Germany's gas storage is 56% full, which is not good news."
},
{
"name": "Netherlands",
"type": "region",
"context": "The Netherlands' gas storage has improved but is still below 54%."
},
{
"name": "Spain",
"type": "region",
"context": "Warmer temperatures are shifting through Spain and France."
},
{
"name": "France",
"type": "region",
"context": "Warmer temperatures are shifting through Spain and France."
},
{
"name": "Eastern Europe",
"type": "region",
"context": "Warmer air is pushed into Eastern Europe."
},
{
"name": "Texas",
"type": "region",
"context": "The above normal heat dome is centered around Texas and Louisiana."
},
{
"name": "Louisiana",
"type": "region",
"context": "The above normal heat dome is centered around Texas and Louisiana."
},
{
"name": "Dallas",
"type": "region",
"context": "12.6 million people are under extreme heat risk from Dallas to St. Louis."
},
{
"name": "St. Louis",
"type": "region",
"context": "12.6 million people are under extreme heat risk from Dallas to St. Louis."
},
{
"name": "Colorado",
"type": "region",
"context": "Exceptional drought conditions are present in Colorado."
},
{
"name": "New Mexico",
"type": "region",
"context": "Exceptional drought conditions are present in New Mexico."
},
{
"name": "Arkansas",
"type": "region",
"context": "Exceptional drought conditions are present in Arkansas."
},
{
"name": "Southern Idaho",
"type": "region",
"context": "Exceptional drought conditions are present in Southern Idaho."
},
{
"name": "Oregon",
"type": "region",
"context": "Exceptional drought conditions are present in parts of Oregon."
},
{
"name": "California",
"type": "region",
"context": "Barely any heat risk showing up in parts of California by next Thursday."
},
{
"name": "Arizona",
"type": "region",
"context": "Barely any heat risk showing up in parts of Arizona by next Thursday."
},
{
"name": "Florida",
"type": "region",
"context": "Barely any heat risk showing up in Florida by next Thursday."
},
{
"name": "Gulf of Mexico",
"type": "region",
"context": "Water temperatures in the Gulf are still 85-87 degrees."
},
{
"name": "Atlantic",
"type": "region",
"context": "Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is low due to Saharan dust."
},
{
"name": "El Niño",
"type": "concept",
"context": "A 'super El Niño' is expected through winter, leading to potential volatility."
},
{
"name": "Saharan Air Layer",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Saharan dust is inhibiting real storm development in the Atlantic."
}
],
"sentiment": "mixed",
"confidence": 0.9,
"key_points": [
{
"point": "Natural gas is currently trading sideways, unable to break through the $3.00 mark.",
"timestamp": "00:26",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "A bullish EIA report was released, and another bullish one is expected next week.",
"timestamp": "00:36",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "LNG has slipped again, indicating that not everything is under control yet.",
"timestamp": "00:43",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The daily pivot for natural gas is at 2.906, with first resistance at 2.954.",
"timestamp": "00:53",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "There is a widening deficit to last year's storage and a narrowing surplus to the five-year average in the EIA report.",
"timestamp": "01:35",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The South Central region's storage is over 100 Bcf below last year's levels.",
"timestamp": "02:00",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The February natural gas contract is in a major down channel that started in April.",
"timestamp": "02:35",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "ERCOT system-wide demand is projected to be just over 85,000 MW.",
"timestamp": "02:50",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Wind generation in ERCOT is quite light, leading natural gas to pick up the balance of the load, currently just under 28,000 MW.",
"timestamp": "03:04",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Solar is now the number one renewable in ERCOT, with over 40,000 MW of capacity, exceeding natural gas, coal, and nuclear combined.",
"timestamp": "03:21",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The combination of late-season heat, extreme heat in certain areas, and an aging infrastructure is causing volatility in power prices.",
"timestamp": "04:13",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "With data centers coming online, there is no longer seasonality in power demand, which is a problem for natural gas and power.",
"timestamp": "04:24",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Extreme heat risk in the US is expected to dissipate by next Thursday, with cooler weather moving into the upper Midwest and New England.",
"timestamp": "04:50",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature outlooks show an above-normal heat dome centered around Texas and Louisiana, extending through the mid-section of the country.",
"timestamp": "06:00",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "European underground gas storage is approaching 69% full, but Germany is only 56% full, and Great Britain is around 33-34% full, which is dangerous for winter.",
"timestamp": "06:25",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The UK NBP natural gas January contract was down over 2.37% yesterday, despite low storage stocks.",
"timestamp": "08:21",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Cameron LNG is almost back to full operating capacity, with one train having passed very quickly.",
"timestamp": "11:24",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Freeport LNG has seen some volatility, with quantities down to 1.371 from a high of 1.849.",
"timestamp": "11:43",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Golden Pass Train 1 is experiencing commissioning problems and is not fully up to operational capacity.",
"timestamp": "12:47",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is low due to the Saharan Air Layer, potentially leading to a zero hurricane season for the Atlantic in 2026.",
"timestamp": "13:50",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "El Niño is expected to persist through March-May 2027, then quickly dissipate into a neutral phase by April-June 2027.",
"timestamp": "14:07",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The interior West of the United States is in exceptional drought conditions and needs a lot of rain.",
"timestamp": "14:36",
"importance": "high"
}
],
"trade_ideas": [],
"price_levels": [
{
"note": "Currently trading up 2.5 cents or 0.86%",
"value": "2.926",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NGV26)",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Daily pivot",
"value": "2.906",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NGV26)",
"level_type": "pivot"
},
{
"note": "First resistance",
"value": "2.954",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NGV26)",
"level_type": "resistance"
},
{
"note": "Unable to break this mark",
"value": "3.00",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NGV26)",
"level_type": "resistance"
},
{
"note": "Resistance level",
"value": "3.006",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NGV26)",
"level_type": "resistance"
},
{
"note": "Early morning spike in locational marginal price",
"value": "1255",
"instrument": "MISO",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Expected locational marginal price",
"value": "238",
"instrument": "PJM",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Down yesterday",
"value": "2.37%",
"instrument": "UK NBP Natural Gas Futures (January 2027)",
"level_type": "other"
}
],
"time_horizon": "medium_term",
"matches_filter": true,
"data_references": [
{
"value": "+44 Bcf",
"metric": "Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report",
"period": "Week ending September 11, 2026",
"source": "EIA"
},
{
"value": "+87 Bcf",
"metric": "Last year's storage injection",
"period": "September 11, 2025",
"source": "EIA"
},
{
"value": "+74 Bcf",
"metric": "5-year average storage injection",
"period": "2021-2025",
"source": "EIA"
},
{
"value": "just under 3.3 Tcf",
"metric": "Total US underground storage",
"period": "September 11, 2026",
"source": "EIA"
},
{
"value": "over 3.4 Tcf",
"metric": "Last year's total US underground storage",
"period": "September 11, 2025",
"source": "EIA"
},
{
"value": "just over 1 Tcf (over 100 Bcf below last year)",
"metric": "South Central storage",
"period": "September 11, 2026",
"source": "EIA"
},
{
"value": "just over 85,000 MW",
"metric": "System-Wide Demand",
"period": "Current Day",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "over 34,000 MW",
"metric": "Renewable Capacity (Solar, Wind, Hydro, Battery)",
"period": "Current Day",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "below 5,000 MW",
"metric": "Wind Generation",
"period": "Current Day",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "just under 28,000 MW (just below 45% of fuel mix)",
"metric": "Natural Gas Generation",
"period": "Current Day",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "over 40,000 MW (number one renewable)",
"metric": "Solar Capacity",
"period": "Current Day",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "over $1255",
"metric": "Locational Marginal Price",
"period": "Early morning",
"source": "MISO"
},
{
"value": "expected to get out to $238",
"metric": "Locational Marginal Price",
"period": "Day ahead",
"source": "PJM"
},
{
"value": "12.6 million",
"metric": "Heat Risk (people affected)",
"period": "September 19, 2026",
"source": "National Weather Service"
},
{
"value": "almost 12 million",
"metric": "Heat Risk (people affected)",
"period": "September 20, 2026",
"source": "National Weather Service"
},
{
"value": "Above normal heat dome centered around Texas and Louisiana",
"metric": "6-10 Day Temperature Outlook",
"period": "September 23-27, 2026",
"source": "National Weather Service"
},
{
"value": "Above normal heat dome up through the mid-section of the country",
"metric": "8-14 Day Temperature Outlook",
"period": "September 25 - October 1, 2026",
"source": "National Weather Service"
},
{
"value": "68.8% (179 TWh)",
"metric": "EU Underground gas storage fullness",
"period": "Current",
"source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
},
{
"value": "80% (lowered from 90%)",
"metric": "EU Underground gas storage fullness target",
"period": "November 1",
"source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
},
{
"value": "56.0% (139 TWh)",
"metric": "Germany Underground gas storage fullness",
"period": "Current",
"source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
},
{
"value": "33-34%",
"metric": "Great Britain Underground gas storage fullness",
"period": "Current",
"source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
},
{
"value": "just below 54%",
"metric": "The Netherlands Underground gas storage fullness",
"period": "Current",
"source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
},
{
"value": "13.46%",
"metric": "UK Gas Stored (LNG)",
"period": "Current",
"source": "UK Energy Live"
},
{
"value": "20.79%",
"metric": "UK Gas Stored (Natural Gas)",
"period": "Current",
"source": "UK Energy Live"
},
{
"value": "34%",
"metric": "UK Total Gas Storage",
"period": "Current",
"source": "UK Energy Live"
},
{
"value": "1,498,168",
"metric": "Cameron LNG (Delivery) Operating Capacity",
"period": "September 19, 2026",
"source": "Sempra Cameron Interstate Pipeline LLC"
},
{
"value": "1.371",
"metric": "Total Scheduled Quantity",
"period": "September 17, 2026",
"source": "Freeport LNG"
},
{
"value": "1.849",
"metric": "Total Scheduled Quantity (peak)",
"period": "September 17, 2026",
"source": "Freeport LNG"
},
{
"value": "324,000 MMBtu",
"metric": "GTS LP (Delivery) Quantity",
"period": "September 19, 2026",
"source": "Golden Pass Pipeline"
},
{
"value": "near 100%",
"metric": "El Niño probability",
"period": "September 2026 - February 2027",
"source": "Official NOAA CPC ENSO Probabilities"
},
{
"value": "55%",
"metric": "ENSO-neutral probability",
"period": "April-June 2027",
"source": "Official NOAA CPC ENSO Probabilities"
},
{
"value": "Exceptional drought in interior West (Colorado, New Mexico, Arkansas, Southern Idaho, Oregon)",
"metric": "Drought conditions",
"period": "September 15, 2026",
"source": "U.S. Drought Monitor"
},
{
"value": "MTDR -6.06%, CNX -7.03%, CRK -11.50%, CRGY -3.47%, NOG -5.15%, BKV -4.54%, Landbridge -0.54%",
"metric": "Stock performance",
"period": "Week Performance",
"source": "Oil & Gas E&P Sector"
}
],
"match_reasoning": "The video provides a detailed weekly recap of natural gas markets, including price movements, storage reports, weather forecasts, and LNG export facility updates."
},
"video_id": "17YzWfHt2tg",
"video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17YzWfHt2tg",
"transcript": "Good morning, natural gas. It's Friday, September the 18th, 2026. I'm Tim Beggins, President of Elk Trading Company. And for the spot October contract, we're currently up. We're currently trading at 2.9260, up two and a half cents or 0.86%. You can see the RSI is open to the upside, but we are continuing to trade sideways. We're unable to break up and through the $3.00 mark. Looks like just a little bit of short covering here ahead of the weekend. What's going on? A bullish EIA report. There's going to be another bullish one next week. Weather is fairly supportive, but LNG has slipped again. We're just not getting everything under control yet. Let's take a look at the hourly chart. And as you can see, we are testing and through the daily pivot, which came in at 2.9060. RSI is pointing up. Looks like we're going to test first resistance at 2.9540. Do we have enough strength to get over $3.00, 3.006? Probably not. But as you can see, we are trading sideways here right now around the 2.90 level for the last few days. Unfortunately, we just don't have enough bullish catalyst to keep going. Let's take a look at the EIA report, and there's some things here to keep an eye on. One, it came in at plus 44 Bcf, against last year's 87 and the five-year average of plus 74. But notice a few things. We're continuing to widen the deficit to last year. Right now, we're just under 3.3 Tcf in the ground. Last year, we were over 3.4. And as you can see, we're narrowing the surplus to the five-year average. But that also includes the year after COVID. So, really, take a look. It should be against last year that the comparisons are made. And as you can see, the South Central is just over 1 Tcf. That's over right now, over 100 Bcf below last year. So, be careful here. We've got some vulnerability in the EIA storage report. Again, next week, we're going to get another bullish report. Let's take a look at the February contract because we're going to keep a careful eye on this. This is the back end of winter here, and we're going to get super El Niño. But that leaves the door open to a lot of volatility at the back end of winter as it quickly dissipates. And as you can see, we're in this major down channel here that started all the way back in April. That continues to press lower as we go. The RSI continues to be right now in sell territory. Let's take a look at ERCOT. And ERCOT right now, system-wide demand is going to be just over 85,000 MW. Renewables, the capacity here is just going to be over 34,000. Wind again is quite light. And as you can see right now, wind is below 5,000 MW, which means natural gas is picking up the balance of that load here. We're currently just under 28,000 MW for natural gas. We're just below 45% of the fuel mix. That will continue over the next few days. And what else is interesting about this? Take a look. Solar is now the number one renewable, over 40,000 MW. Add up solar, wind, and battery, and that exceeds natural gas, coal, and nuclear combined. So, that's good news and bad news. It means that prices are low for consumers, but we don't have a lot of wiggle room. Again, there's about 88,000 of fossil fuel generation for winter. If we get a really cold snap, it could be interesting. Let's take a look at the national grid for power. And already behind me here, MISO kicking in over $1255 here early morning spike. And there's some more volatility in PJM again. We'll keep a careful eye on that. That is expected to get out to $238 and change. So, again, late season heat, extreme heat in certain areas, and an aging infrastructure. We're trying to take plants down for some maintenance, but here's the problem. With data centers coming online, there is no seasonality. That's the problem natural gas has faced with LNG. And here comes the same problem for power. Let's take a look at the extreme heat risk here. And as you can see right now, we are currently looking at 12.6 million people under extreme heat risk from Dallas all the way back to St. Louis. And that continues all the way through tomorrow here, almost 12 million people. Then it starts to dissipate. Here's that cooler weather coming in the upper Midwest here and into New England and the Mid-Atlantic states. And that pushes that heat all the way to the Southeast. And then finally, it looks like by Thursday next week, we barely have anything showing here. It is barely showing up in Texas, parts of California and Arizona, and Florida. That's really about it. Let's take a look at the models here going forward. And as you can see, that heat chimney continues in the mid-section of the country, but the cooler weather is showing up on the models here. Look at the temperatures here. There's 37 for Calgary. There's 50s for Colorado. Now we start to see the early morning temperatures here. Chicago 46. As we move through the day, it gets a little warmer up into the 80s, but 60s over here in the Great Lakes, 60s in the Pacific Northwest. That continues again as we get into the 2nd of October. So, cooler weather is on the horizon. Remember, the 22nd is the official start to fall. And here's the 6-10 day temperature outlook. And as you can see, there's those below normal temperatures up in New England, but the above normal heat dome is centered around Texas and Louisiana. That continues in the 8-14 day temperature outlook. Again, look at that heat chimney up through the mid-section of the country. Normal in the coast here for both the Pacific Northwest and New England. Let's take a look at Europe. And it is approaching 69% full for storage as a total region. But again, we do have some problem areas. And that means that we are probably not going to be able to get to their target of 80%. That was lowered from 90%. In this case, it looks like we're probably getting closer towards 76% full by November the 1st. Let's take a look at where there's going to be some issues here. Germany, again, 56% full. Not good news. Injections have started to ease up again. And of course, Great Britain right behind it. Unfortunately, this is around 30, 33, 34% full. We'll take a careful look at that in a second here. And of course, then you've got like the Netherlands, which has improved, but it is still just below 54%. Again, it peaked out here around 62% as a minimum. We're tracking along that same line. Other countries though, are better off. Let's take a look at Europe here. And this is the temperature anomaly map here. We got some warmer temperatures again shifting through here. We get some warm heat coming through Spain and France here. Again, as we get into Monday, and then into Tuesday here, and Wednesday, there's some really warm temperatures. There it is. Thursday, very warm across Spain, France, parts of Southern Germany here. And that continues into Saturday. And then we get some cooler weather showing up again. Pushes that warmer air inward into Eastern Europe. Excuse me. And then we get another wave of heat coming back in again. Before we get out into October, and there is some finally some cool weather coming through the UK, uh, Germany, and France. Spain still stays fairly warm. Look at this nice little heat rainbow out here in Eastern Europe. Let's take a look at the UK. And this is for the January contract. This is the national balancing point. And it was actually down yesterday over 2.37%. And that's interesting news because they are still so low in storage stocks. It's surprising that we're getting a little bit of a sell-off there. Continuing the Strait of Hormuz problems. And let's take a look at the UK in particular here. As you can see, they are injecting gas into storage here, 21.56. They're not pulling. LNG is a net positive here at this moment, uh, for supply here. That's good news. And of course, we need more good news as we continue to get closer and closer to November the 1st. Let's take a look at that total gas storage here. What we know is that stored gas for LNG is up to 13.46%. Natural gas is up to 20.79%. Adding them up together again, 34% full for the UK. That's really going to be very dangerous news for this winter. But let's see if El Niño can help them out at least for a month or two. Let's take a look at Asia. And here is Tropical Cyclone DuJuan. And that is going to head up toward Tokyo here, but stay offshore. That's good news there. There is still some moisture coming into Eastern India and parts of the Southeast Asia. China is relatively clear right now. Let's take a look at the temperatures. Tokyo only 70 degrees right now. Beijing 71. New Delhi 84. So, there was good news here. It is cooler temperatures in the region. And here is Tropical Storm DuJuan here, Severe Tropical Storm DuJuan. It is expected to be off the coast of Japan on Sunday, and then into Monday, it shifts to the northeast. That's good news for Japan. It is going to cool down the eastern coast around Tokyo for a day or two. And let's take a look just at the temperature map for Asia because the anomalies are probably going to hide some of the picture here. These are the warm temperatures in the 80s here in Southern China. That continues. But look at Tibet right here. Cooler temperatures here. Watch Mongolia. Watch Eastern Siberia here. As we go through the model runs, there is some cooler weather that shows up here on the models. The eastern parts of China though, stay fairly warm for a good period here until we get into about October the 1st and 2nd. And then things start to cool down in general for the region. There it is. There's the October the 3rd is fairly cool across Japan, the Koreas, and most of China. Let's take a look at the LNG across the globe. And there is nothing loading at Ras Laffan. We do have an LNG tanker that is at the docks but is not loading LNG. And let's take a look at the Strait of Hormuz. As you can see, fairly quiet going through the strait right now. That is again the same news as just about every day for the last six months. And let's take a look at the US. Here's Cameron LNG coming back here. Almost 1.5 out of 1.56. That means that one train outage has passed here very quickly. They got it back up and running. And we're approaching operating capacity here as cooler temperatures eventually arrive in this area. Let's take a look at Freeport. We've got a little bit of volatility here. We're down to 1.371. It was as high as 1.849. So, something else is going on again at Freeport. So, there's the bad news there. And here is Creole Trail, one of the pipelines that feeds Sabine Pass. And that is about standard here. We're opening open capacity here over 261,000. But over at Corpus Christi, it is running near nameplate capacity. That's good news there. Venture Global, here it is Calcasieu Pass, running a little bit lighter, 1.58. And over at Plaquemines, it is running 3.858. That's good news there. That's about steady as she goes. But Golden Pass. 324,000 MMBtu. That is, you know, just terrible. Unfortunately, they are not able to get this train fully up to operational capacity here. This is probably some more late maintenance. There hasn't been anything loading here at Golden Pass in the last uh, week or so. So, unfortunately, this means that there are still some commissioning problems here at Golden Pass Train 1. And here is the tropics for the Atlantic. And as you can see, that storm system we were keeping an eye on on the East Coast, down to 0% chance now. It's just dissipated. There is a 20% or 30% chance now for a cyclone formation in the next seven days. But this is well out to the Azores here. So, there is nothing of risk to the United States. And here is the Gulf. As you can see, still some moisture pulling in from the east, moving to the west, which was quite unusual here. Water temperatures are still anywhere from 85 to 87 degrees in the Gulf. So, if something does form, you'll start to see rapid ascent. And here is the Mid-Atlantic. There is that no nothing burger out here. Here's the 30% chance way out here just southwest of the Azores. There is some activity coming off the coast of Africa. But as usual, there is going to be very little chance of development anytime soon because, yep, we still have some Saharan Air Layer or dust coming off the continent. Not as much this time, but it is enough to inhibit any real storm development. We may have a zero hurricane season for the Atlantic in 2026. We'll see. And let's take a look. There is the ENSO probabilities. Again, remember, we are expected to be in a super El Niño through winter. And then it quickly dissipates into spring. There is more of a neutral phase here for April, May, and June period. And then that means we're going to have longer stretches of hot weather. The interior West of the United States stays warm. Hopefully, El Niño winter will bring it. And here's the drought monitor. And and this is the big problem because we really need a lot of rain in the interior West, especially from New Mexico all the way back over to Arkansas here because we are in exceptional drought conditions from Colorado, down in New Mexico, all the way over to Arkansas, and parts of Southern Idaho and parts of Oregon. So, we need the rain. Hopefully, El Niño winter will bring it. And let's take a look at the stocks. These are stocks in the oil and gas E&P sector. Stocks between $2 and $10 billion have a high short float, over 10%. And it's a sea of red, unfortunately. Landbridge behind me down 0.54%. Let's take a look at recapping here for the October contract. We are currently trading at 2.9280, up 2.7 cents or 0.93%. We're going sideways, folks. A little bit of short covering ahead of the weekend. We've got to get some better news at LNG next week before we can make a run at the $3.00 mark yet again. But we're running out of time before expiration. Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below. Please hit that like and subscribe button. Thanks for listening. We'll see you soon.",
"description": "Tim Beggans recaps a sideways October market that still can’t hold $3: yesterday’s +44 Bcf print, a widening deficit vs last year, the February / El Niño fade watch, ERCOT with solar now the top renewable, volatile national power prices and data-center load, lingering Dallas–St. Louis heat vs incoming fall, EU/UK storage gaps, Typhoon Dewan staying offshore Japan, quiet Hormuz, mixed U.S. LNG (Cameron back, Freeport and Golden Pass off), a historically quiet Atlantic, ENSO flipping toward neutral by spring, West drought, and the E&P watch list.\nContract / levels:\n\nOctober near 2.926–2.928, up ~2–3¢\nSideways around 2.90; still unable to hold $3\nDaily pivot ~2.906\nFirst resistance ~2.954\n$3.006 second resistance\n\nStorage (yesterday):\n\n+44 Bcf vs last year +87 and 5-year average +74\nWorking gas just under 3.3 Tcf vs greater than 3.4 Tcf last year\nSouth Central greater than 100 Bcf below last year\nNext week also set up bullish vs last year and the 5-year\n\nNG Stock Watch List Oil & Gas EMP Sector\nMarket Cap 2-10B, High short float over 10% \nBKV | CNX | CRGY | CRK | LB | MTDR | NOG\n\nTimestamps\n0:00 – Open: October sideways; can’t hold $3\n\n0:53 – Hourly pivot & first resistance\n\n1:23 – EIA +44 Bcf; deficit vs last year; South Central\n\n2:20 – February contract & El Niño fade\n\n2:50 – ERCOT: low wind, solar #1 renewable, winter capacity\n\n3:56 – National grid (MISO spike, PJM, data centers)\n\n4:37 – U.S. heat-risk maps\n\n5:21 – Extended models; fall starts Sept 22\n\n6:01 – 6-10 day & 8-14 day outlooks\n\n6:27 – EU / Germany / UK / Netherlands storage\n\n7:25 – Europe weather\n\n8:19 – UK NBP January & UK storage detail (~34% full)\n\n9:31 – Asia weather; Typhoon Dewan offshore Japan\n\n10:19 – Asia temperature maps into early October\n\n11:06 – Ras Laffan empty; quiet Hormuz\n\n11:27 – U.S. LNG terminals (Cameron back; Freeport / Golden Pass off)\n\n12:56 – Tropics: Mid-Atlantic dead; Azores 20–30%\n\n13:55 – Saharan dust; possible zero-hurricane Atlantic\n\n14:10 – ENSO into spring/summer 2027\n\n14:37 – Drought monitor\n\n15:04 – E&P watch list\n\n15:19 – Recap & close",
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"published_at": "2026-09-18T14:35:05Z",
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"reporting_date": "2026-09-18",
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