Elk Trading - Natural Gas - Run #2997
Reporting Date: 2026-09-17
Completed
Run Details
- State
- Completed
- Started At
- September 17, 2026 at 03:17 PM
- Completed At
- September 17, 2026 at 03:18 PM
- Duration
- 2 minutes
- Headline
- Daily Natural Gas Report - October Futures (NGV26 @ 2.944) | 09.17.2026
Data Preview
{
"title": "Daily Natural Gas Report - October Futures (NGV26 @ 2.944) | 09.17.2026",
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"channel": {
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/@ElKTradingCoLLC",
"title": "ELK TRADING Co LLC | Natural Gas Trading",
"handle": "ElKTradingCoLLC",
"channel_id": "UCcvcKcyIO_nhZrRubvfxO3w"
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"insights": {
"risks": [
"El Niño may fade quickly at the back end of winter, potentially causing volatility.",
"Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could impact oil markets."
],
"topics": [
"Natural Gas",
"Natural Gas Storage",
"Weather Forecasts",
"LNG Exports",
"European Energy Markets",
"Asian Energy Markets",
"Tropical Cyclones",
"El Niño",
"Power Grids",
"Oil Markets",
"Energy Stocks"
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"summary": "The natural gas market is currently up, with the October contract trading at $2.915, but remains stuck between key moving averages. Today is a storage report day, with expectations of a +49 BCF injection, which would be bullish compared to last year and the five-year average. Lingering heat in the US and Europe, coupled with low wind generation in Texas, is supporting natural gas demand, while European storage levels remain a concern. The El Niño phenomenon is expected to persist through early 2027 but may transition to a neutral phase by summer, potentially bringing normal temperatures and precipitation but dry conditions to the US West.",
"entities": [
{
"name": "Tim Beggins",
"type": "person",
"context": "President of Elk Trading Company"
},
{
"name": "Elk Trading Company",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Presenter's company"
},
{
"name": "Natural Gas",
"type": "commodity",
"context": "Primary commodity discussed"
},
{
"name": "ERCOT",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Texas electricity grid operator"
},
{
"name": "PJM",
"type": "organization",
"context": "US electricity grid operator"
},
{
"name": "MISO",
"type": "organization",
"context": "US electricity grid operator"
},
{
"name": "SPP",
"type": "organization",
"context": "US electricity grid operator"
},
{
"name": "NYISO",
"type": "organization",
"context": "US electricity grid operator"
},
{
"name": "El Niño",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Weather phenomenon impacting winter"
},
{
"name": "La Niña",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Weather phenomenon"
},
{
"name": "Japan",
"type": "region",
"context": "Affected by tropical cyclone"
},
{
"name": "Europe",
"type": "region",
"context": "Discussed for gas storage and weather"
},
{
"name": "Great Britain",
"type": "region",
"context": "Discussed for gas storage"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
"type": "region",
"context": "Discussed for gas storage"
},
{
"name": "Asia",
"type": "region",
"context": "Discussed for weather"
},
{
"name": "India",
"type": "region",
"context": "Discussed for weather"
},
{
"name": "China",
"type": "region",
"context": "Discussed for weather"
},
{
"name": "Qatar",
"type": "region",
"context": "LNG loading location"
},
{
"name": "Yemen",
"type": "region",
"context": "Geopolitical concern for shipping"
},
{
"name": "US",
"type": "region",
"context": "Discussed for weather and LNG"
},
{
"name": "Cameron LNG",
"type": "organization",
"context": "US LNG export terminal"
},
{
"name": "Freeport LNG",
"type": "organization",
"context": "US LNG export terminal"
},
{
"name": "Creole Trail Pipeline",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Pipeline feeding Sabine Pass LNG"
},
{
"name": "Corpus Christi Pipeline",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Pipeline feeding Corpus Christi LNG"
},
{
"name": "Venture Global",
"type": "organization",
"context": "LNG company"
},
{
"name": "Golden Pass Pipeline",
"type": "organization",
"context": "US LNG pipeline"
},
{
"name": "Landbridge Company LLC",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Energy stock"
},
{
"name": "BKV Corp",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Energy stock"
},
{
"name": "Matador Resources Co",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Energy stock"
},
{
"name": "NOAA",
"type": "organization",
"context": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration"
},
{
"name": "National Hurricane Center",
"type": "organization",
"context": "US weather agency"
},
{
"name": "KLYSTRON 9",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Weather data source"
}
],
"sentiment": "mixed",
"confidence": 0.9,
"key_points": [
{
"point": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NGV26) is currently trading at 2.915, up 2.4 cents (0.83%), and is stuck between the 13 and 48 period exponential moving averages.",
"timestamp": "00:14",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Today is storage day, with consensus expectations for a +49 BCF injection, which is lower than last year's +87 BCF and the five-year average of +74 BCF.",
"timestamp": "00:28",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The market is trying to push through the $3 strike price, but has been unsuccessful in maintaining a break above it.",
"timestamp": "00:57",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The February natural gas contract is being closely watched due to a 'Super El Niño' expected early this winter, which may fade quickly at the back end of winter, potentially leading to volatility.",
"timestamp": "01:45",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "ERCOT (Texas electricity grid) is expecting demand just over 85,000 MW today, with natural gas picking up over 45% of the fuel mix due to low wind generation.",
"timestamp": "02:05",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Power markets in PJM, MISO, and SPP experienced significant volatility yesterday, with PJM hitting $4,000/MWh, and continued volatility is observed today.",
"timestamp": "02:29",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Extreme heat risk affects 20.5 million people today, mainly from Dallas to St. Louis, and is expected to linger into the weekend, with major heat risk persisting along the Gulf Coast.",
"timestamp": "03:25",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "European gas storage is at 68.7% for the EU, 31.3% for Great Britain, and 56.6% for Germany, with all regions struggling to reach 80% fullness by November 1st.",
"timestamp": "05:15",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "A severe tropical cyclone (Typhoon No. 25, DuJuan) is heading towards Japan, expected to reach Tokyo by Sunday, coinciding with Japan's 'Silver Week' holidays.",
"timestamp": "08:08",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The Strait of Hormuz has very little traffic, which is not good news for oil markets.",
"timestamp": "09:55",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "US LNG facilities like Cameron LNG are starting to ramp up, Freeport LNG is steady, and Creole Trail and Corpus Christi show available capacity, with Golden Pass Pipeline taking 'baby steps' to full operational capacity.",
"timestamp": "10:22",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The Atlantic hurricane season may be the quietest ever due to disorganized tropical activity and Saharan dust inhibiting development.",
"timestamp": "12:45",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "El Niño is expected to persist through March-May 2027, with a 55% chance of transitioning to ENSO-neutral in April-June 2027, which could lead to normal temperatures and precipitation but dry conditions in the US West for summer 2027.",
"timestamp": "13:23",
"importance": "high"
}
],
"trade_ideas": [],
"price_levels": [
{
"note": "Current trading price, up 2.4 cents",
"value": "2.915",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NGV26)",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Daily pivot",
"value": "2.9160",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NGV26)",
"level_type": "pivot"
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{
"note": "First resistance",
"value": "2.9530",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NGV26)",
"level_type": "resistance"
},
{
"note": "Second resistance",
"value": "3.016",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NGV26)",
"level_type": "resistance"
},
{
"note": "Strike price the market is trying to break",
"value": "3.00",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NGV26)",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Pence per therm, down about 1%",
"value": "191.74",
"instrument": "UK NBP Natural Gas Futures",
"level_type": "other"
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],
"time_horizon": "medium_term",
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"data_references": [
{
"value": "+49 BCF (consensus)",
"metric": "Natural Gas Storage Injection",
"period": "current week",
"source": "EIA"
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{
"value": "+87 BCF",
"metric": "Natural Gas Storage Injection",
"period": "last year",
"source": "EIA"
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{
"value": "+74 BCF",
"metric": "Natural Gas Storage Injection",
"period": "5-year average",
"source": "EIA"
},
{
"value": "just over 85,000 MW",
"metric": "System-Wide Demand Forecast",
"period": "today",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "up to 33,000 MW",
"metric": "Renewable Capacity",
"period": "current",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "over 45% (almost 30,000 MW)",
"metric": "Natural Gas Fuel Mix",
"period": "current",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "$4,000/MWh",
"metric": "Locational Marginal Price",
"period": "yesterday",
"source": "PJM"
},
{
"value": "pushing $558",
"metric": "Locational Marginal Price",
"period": "today",
"source": "PJM"
},
{
"value": "around $75",
"metric": "Locational Marginal Price Peak",
"period": "today",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "expected to be $350",
"metric": "Locational Marginal Price",
"period": "today",
"source": "MISO"
},
{
"value": "around $120",
"metric": "Locational Marginal Price",
"period": "today",
"source": "NYISO"
},
{
"value": "20.5 million people",
"metric": "HeatRisk Population",
"period": "today",
"source": "National Weather Service"
},
{
"value": "14.4 million people",
"metric": "HeatRisk Population",
"period": "tomorrow",
"source": "National Weather Service"
},
{
"value": "68.7% (777 TWh)",
"metric": "EU Storage Fullness",
"period": "current",
"source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
},
{
"value": "31.3% (3 TWh)",
"metric": "Great Britain Storage Fullness",
"period": "current",
"source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
},
{
"value": "56.6% (101 TWh)",
"metric": "Germany Storage Fullness",
"period": "current",
"source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
},
{
"value": "5.7 mcm/d",
"metric": "Net Storage Injection",
"period": "current",
"source": "UK National Grid"
},
{
"value": "20.76%",
"metric": "UK Gas Stored (Pipeline)",
"period": "current",
"source": "Terravolt"
},
{
"value": "12.75%",
"metric": "UK LNG Stored",
"period": "current",
"source": "Terravolt"
},
{
"value": "El Niño expected to persist through March-May 2027, with a 55% chance of ENSO-neutral in April-June 2027",
"metric": "ENSO Probabilities",
"period": "September 2026",
"source": "NOAA CPC"
}
],
"match_reasoning": "The video substantively discusses natural gas prices, storage, and demand drivers, including weather patterns and LNG export activity."
},
"video_id": "l0HJIYsQ660",
"video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0HJIYsQ660",
"transcript": "Good morning, Natural Gas. It's Thursday, September 17th, 2026. I'm Tim Beggins, President of Elk Trading Company. And today, for the spot October Natural Gas contract, we're up. We're currently trading at 2.91 and a half here, up 2.4 cents, or 0.83%. As you can see, we're still stuck between the 13 and 48 period exponential moving averages. Today is storage day. Expectations +49 BCF is the consensus. Low side here, there's a cluster around +47, cluster around +52. It goes up against +87 last year and +74 for the five-year average. Next week is also going to be bullish versus last year and the five-year average here. So the marketplace is saying, 'Hey, let's see if I can get through the $3 strike here, maybe trigger some buy stops here and see if we can get going to the upside.' But we are going to see that there is a little bit of weakness here on the board. Let's take a look at the hourly chart. And as you can see, we've been below the daily pivot today, which came in at 2.9160, excuse me. The RSI there was turning to the positive side. So it looks like we want to make a run for at least the 2.9530, first resistance, possibly get to second resistance at 3.016. That would be very critical here. We've got a lot of clusters of options there at the $3 strike. We've been unsuccessful in maintaining a break of the $3 strike. So, let's see what today's storage brings us. Let's take a look at the February contract. We're going to continue to watch this because El Niño, Super El Niño, is going to come in early this winter, but may fade quickly at the back end of the winter. We may see some volatility. So let's see what happens here with the February contract. We're going to keep a careful eye on it. As you can see here for ERCOT, yesterday, or today, we are expected to be just over 85,000 megawatts. Renewables here have capacity up to 33,000 megawatts. Again, wind is quite low. And that means natural gas is picking up over 45% of the fuel mix here. It is currently almost 30,000 megawatts in the grid. And let's take a look at the grid, the national grid, which was very volatile yesterday. PJM hitting $4,000 per megawatt, right? This is amazing because we did see a lot of volatility in other regions as well, not only ERCOT, MISO, and SPP. So today we've already started to see some volatility in PJM, pushing $558. This is the lingering heat that continues to plague all of the electrical grid right now. And as you can see, there is some volatility in SPP this morning, getting up there as at $154 right there. ERCOT today is expected to peak out around $75. But look at MISO. MISO expected to be $350. NYISO getting up here around $120. So, watch out for PJM, watch out for SPP, watch out for MISO, because the power markets are swinging wildly. Let's take a look at that extreme heat. And as you can see right now, we have right now 20.5 million people under extreme heat risk, mainly from Dallas back to St. Louis. This continues to ease as we go through the forecast here. Here's tomorrow, 14.4 million people. Again, the same area, Dallas to St. Louis. But as you can see, it lingers a little further now into the weekend here, Saturday and Sunday. Monday starts to dissipate. That's good news there. But we still have some major heat risk along the Gulf Coast. That's Texas all the way back to Florida. You could see cooler temperatures coming in the Pacific Northwest, coming in the Upper Midwest, and of course, New England and the Upper Mid-Atlantic states. Let's take a look at the models a little past that. And as you can see, the triple digits disappear. This is normal. We are going to be entering into fall here in the next few days, the 22nd. And as you can see right there at the end of the forecast period here, we're only looking at 80s. There is a brief 100 out here in Arizona. But again, right now, fall is knocking on the door. It's not quite here cool temperatures, certainly not here in Texas. But of course, the real peak of summer has passed. Let's take a look at the 6-10 day outlook. And as you can see, there's the above normal heat dome in the Southeast. There is some above normal temperatures in the Upper Midwest. Why? Because it hasn't cooled down as it should. But there is near normal temperatures in New England. And as you can see here, we're still staying a little bit warm as we get into the 8-14 day temperature outlook. That heat chimney here is continuing from Texas all the way back up to Minnesota. And of course, it includes the Gulf Coast back to Florida. Let's take a look at Europe. And there they are. EU is now at 68.7% full. As you can see, it is going to struggle to get to 80% full by November the 1st. That's not good news. Because look where we have some problems. Great Britain. And again, this is completely gone sideways here for the last two weeks here. It is only showing 31.3% full. But we'll show some data here. It's really closer to 33% full. But again, watch out for the big boy here, Germany. Germany is not going to meet its target this year. It's not even going to get close to 70% full by November the 1st. It's only 56%. Let's take a look at the European weather outlook here. Cooler temperatures are coming in now to France today. That's good news. Before some more warm temperatures show back up here again. This is maybe El Niño, but we're getting back and forth between some slightly cooler temperatures and slightly lingering heat from summer. And as you can see, France and Spain continue to get some above normal temperatures here. Here's the 26th here of September. And that is above normal by far here from Spain all the way back over into Germany toward Poland here. That dissipates a little bit as we go into the forecast period, but there is again, more heat coming back in October the 1st. So summer just won't quit right now. Maybe this is all about El Niño. Let's take a look at the uh, excuse me, the natural gas prices for UK here. This is pence per therm. And as you can see, it's down about 1% today. That is down to 191.74. It has been declining for the last three sessions. And let's take a look at the UK. We're going to continue to focus on them because they are the pokey puppy here for the EU. And they're going to be the ones that may be impacted most by any winter weather. And as you can see right now, they are actually injecting a little bit into storage here. You take the net between 13.7 and the withdrawal here at 8, so that means they're putting in 5.7. That's good news there. There is continuing to be concern here. These are the two LNG import terminals, Milford Haven here and Isle of Grain. So we'll keep a careful eye on that. And here is the total gas storage. As you can see, they have plenty of space. Plenty of pipeline gas space here, 51%. They have more space for LNG. Again, that's 15.2% remaining. So that means net here, we've got stored 12.75 or about 13%. Gas stored 20.76%. So again, that's about 33% full. Not good news with less than six weeks to go. Let's take a look at the Asian weather here. And this is you've got severe tropical cyclone DuJuan. And it is going to be heading toward Japan. There is some wet weather here coming through the Southeast Asia, parts of India. That's good news. Let's take a look at the temperatures. Tokyo 66 degrees. Beijing 75 degrees. And New Delhi 88 degrees. And let's take a look at that super, uh, severe tropical storm DuJuan, which is a cyclone, Typhoon No. 25. And as you can see, it is out here in the Pacific. It is going to be stretching up toward Tokyo by Sunday here. This is what's called Silver Week, which is five consecutive holidays all clustered together in one week. This hasn't happened in 11 years. So, good news, people will be on holiday as this system comes in. Let's take a look at Asian weather in general here. It is cooler temperatures in Japan right now. That will continue with the tropical cyclone here that will be coming in by Sunday. You can start to see it actually on the map here. And there is some warmer temperatures through Beijing right now, but cool in India. That's good news there. As we continue to move through, uh, the season here, it is a mixed bag. You can start seeing some cooler temperatures coming in from Mongolia and Siberia here. But as you get in the late forecast period, it looks like a mixed bag. It looks like some warmer temperatures, Shanghai all the way back up to Beijing, but cooler in the Koreas and Japan and India. Let's take a look at Ras Laffan. And there is that still one LNG tanker that is loading up at Ras Laffan. But again, the Strait of Hormuz is got very little traffic moving through it right now. At least with their transponders on. So the war continues. And with the expansion all the way over here to Yemen, there is some traffic coming through this particular strait here. But again, this is the Houthis that have access to this particular space here and may start to pinch this particular strait. So, not good news for the oil markets. And let's turn to the US LNG. Here's Cameron. It is starting to come back up. At least we had one train that had a problem and was down for a little bit. Now it's starting to ramp back up. That's good news there. Freeport steady as she goes, about 1.84. That's good news there. How about Creole Trail feeds Sabine Pass? Yep, steady as she goes there as well. We'll start to see this ramp up closer to nameplate capacity as the weather cools off. And here is Corpus Christi. A little bit more capacity available now today, but not by much, 2.6. That's fantastic news still there at Corpus Christi. Here is Venture Global. It is running a little bit lighter here at Calcasieu Pass, down about 200,000. So, we'll keep an eye on that as well. And here is Plaquemines, running about 3.86. That's okay. It's been fairly above that by a couple hundred MMBTU's, but in general, this is doing fairly well. And Golden Pass. Golden Pass, 581,000 MMBTU's. It is steady as she goes, but hopefully, it will start taking baby steps to get closer to its nameplate capacity of 800 to 850,000 MMBTU's. Let's see if the cooler weather helps them get this thing finally fully online. Let's take a look at the tropical Atlantic. And there's that 40% chance in the mid-Atlantic here for this disturbance. Although, if you look at the weather out there, it's not very good looking at all. It's not very well organized. This is the weather here in the Gulf. As you can see, east-west flow. Again, this is from Florida back toward Texas here, bringing in some moisture into the Houston area. And let's take a look at the mid-Atlantic. And this is the area where we're hoping to see a storm, that disturbance number one, see if it can form. As you can see, very, very disorganized, doesn't look good at all on the maps whatsoever. And there is some more tropical activity out here in the mid-Atlantic coming off the coast of Africa. But it has not gotten organized yet. We'll keep an eye on it. But one other thing to keep an eye on, look at this jet stream coming up here in the United States. There it is. That moisture is coming in from Florida here toward Houston, and then wrapping back up. And that is because the jet stream is well to the north today. Let's take a look at the tropical hazards. As you can see, there is one off the Bahamas and Florida. And again, off the coast of Africa. But it is really, really quiet. We may go without a hurricane this season. Let's take a look at the Saharan Air Layer. And there it is, a bit disorganized. But you can see where some of the tropical systems are. Uh, that is important to watch as these systems try to develop in the midst of this dust here, which will inhibit any development going forward. And that may mean we have the quietest Atlantic hurricane season ever. And you can see some of that dust has migrated all the way back up into Kansas and Missouri. And let's take a look at the El Niño watch. Because this is important. As you can see, look at the back end of February, March, April. Right here comes the neutral phase. We are going to quickly come out of El Niño and go into a neutral phase by summer. That's right. It looks like April, May, and June. Neutral phase is higher probability, which may mean just normal. Longer, uh, hotter temperatures, but normal precipitation and dry in the west for the US. That may be the story for summer 2027. Let's take a look at the stocks here. Mixed bag here today. Unfortunately, behind me, Landbridge here up 1.72. BKV is up just a little bit over 1%. But the rest are pretty much in the negative territory here. Matador behind me, minus 0.27%. So recapping here for storage day, we're currently up. We are currently trading at 2.9440, up 5.3 cents here, or 1.83%. The RSI has turned to the upside. It is going to be expected to be a bullish storage report relative to last year, relative to the five-year average. Same thing next week. Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below. Please hit that like and subscribe button. Thanks for listening. We'll see you tomorrow.",
"description": "NG Stock Watch List Oil & Gas EMP Sector\nMarket Cap 2-10B, High short float over 10% \nBKV | CNX | CRGY | CRK | LB | MTDR | NOG",
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"published_at": "2026-09-17T14:30:05Z",
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