Elk Trading - Natural Gas - Run #2642
Reporting Date: 2026-09-14
Completed
Run Details
- State
- Completed
- Started At
- September 14, 2026 at 03:17 PM
- Completed At
- September 14, 2026 at 03:20 PM
- Duration
- 3 minutes
- Headline
- What's New in Natural Gas - October Futures (NGV26 @ 2.883) | 09.14.2026
Data Preview
{
"title": "What's New in Natural Gas - October Futures (NGV26 @ 2.883) | 09.14.2026",
"filter": {
"keywords": [
"natural gas"
],
"match_mode": "any",
"match_fields": [
"title",
"description"
],
"semantic_filter": true
},
"source": "youtube",
"channel": {
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/@ElKTradingCoLLC",
"title": "ELK TRADING Co LLC | Natural Gas Trading",
"handle": "ElKTradingCoLLC",
"channel_id": "UCcvcKcyIO_nhZrRubvfxO3w"
},
"matched": true,
"insights": {
"risks": [
"The expanding Iran-US war could further disrupt LNG supply and impact crude oil prices.",
"Rising crude oil prices may lead to higher interest rates, increasing the cost of natural gas production.",
"Panama Canal operations face potential drought impacts and super El Niño conditions, affecting shipping.",
"There is uncertainty regarding the accuracy or reporting of European gas storage data.",
"A tropical system in the Mid-Atlantic has a 30% chance of cyclone formation, potentially impacting energy infrastructure.",
"Drought conditions persist in key US regions, which could affect energy demand and supply.",
"Increased earthquake activity in Indonesia, particularly along the Java Trench, poses risks to regional infrastructure and supply chains."
],
"topics": [
"Natural Gas",
"LNG",
"Crude Oil",
"Geopolitics",
"Weather",
"Energy Grid",
"Shipping",
"Drought",
"Earthquakes",
"Stock Market"
],
"summary": "The natural gas market is experiencing bullish sentiment due to an expanding Iran-US war, which is contributing to a 36 MTPA LNG shortfall warned by Shell. US LNG facilities are ramping up feed-gas demand ahead of winter, and strong global LNG prices in Europe and Asia are expected to pull US prices higher. While some cooling weather is anticipated in parts of the US, extreme heat persists in Texas, and European gas storage is unlikely to meet its November 1st target, further supporting demand for US LNG.",
"entities": [
{
"name": "Timothy Beggins",
"type": "person",
"context": "President of Elk Trading Company"
},
{
"name": "Elk Trading Company",
"type": "organization"
},
{
"name": "Natural Gas",
"type": "commodity"
},
{
"name": "Iran",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "US",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Yemen",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Saudi Arabia",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Shell",
"type": "organization"
},
{
"name": "LNG",
"type": "commodity"
},
{
"name": "Cove Point LNG",
"type": "organization"
},
{
"name": "Europe",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Asia",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Crude Oil",
"type": "commodity"
},
{
"name": "ERCOT",
"type": "organization"
},
{
"name": "PJM",
"type": "organization"
},
{
"name": "MISO",
"type": "organization"
},
{
"name": "Texas",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Houston",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Dallas",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Oklahoma",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "New Mexico",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Colorado",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Pacific Northwest",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "New England",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "France",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Spain",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "UK",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Ireland",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Scandinavia",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Norway",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Tokyo",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Beijing",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "New Delhi",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "India",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Southeast Asia",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Japan",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "China",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Pacific Ocean",
"type": "concept"
},
{
"name": "Atlantic Ocean",
"type": "concept"
},
{
"name": "Gulf of Mexico",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Mexico",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Central America",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Caribbean",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Sahara",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Panama Canal",
"type": "concept"
},
{
"name": "Gatun Lake",
"type": "other"
},
{
"name": "Indonesia",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Java Trench",
"type": "other"
},
{
"name": "Ring of Fire",
"type": "concept"
},
{
"name": "Strait of Malacca",
"type": "other"
},
{
"name": "CRK",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Comstock Resources Inc."
},
{
"name": "MTDR",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Matador Resources Co"
},
{
"name": "LB",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Landbridge Company LLC"
},
{
"name": "CNX",
"type": "organization",
"context": "CNX Resources Corp"
},
{
"name": "CRGY",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Crescent Energy Co"
},
{
"name": "NOG",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Northern Oil and Gas Inc"
},
{
"name": "BKV",
"type": "organization",
"context": "BKV Corp"
},
{
"name": "Cameron LNG",
"type": "organization"
},
{
"name": "Freeport LNG",
"type": "organization"
},
{
"name": "Corpus Christi LNG",
"type": "organization"
},
{
"name": "Venture Global Calcasieu Pass",
"type": "organization"
},
{
"name": "Venture Global Plaquemines",
"type": "organization"
},
{
"name": "Golden Pass",
"type": "organization"
},
{
"name": "Fay",
"type": "concept",
"context": "potential named hurricane"
},
{
"name": "Oregon",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Idaho",
"type": "region"
},
{
"name": "Montana",
"type": "region"
}
],
"sentiment": "bullish",
"confidence": 0.9,
"key_points": [
{
"point": "The Iran-US war continues to expand, now including Yemen and Saudi Arabia, which is a significant geopolitical factor.",
"timestamp": "00:14",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Shell is warning of a 36 MTPA (million tons per annum) LNG shortfall due to the war.",
"timestamp": "00:22",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Cove Point LNG is scheduled to undergo maintenance starting next week.",
"timestamp": "00:32",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "US LNG facilities are ramping up feed-gas demand ahead of winter.",
"timestamp": "00:39",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The spot October natural gas contract is currently up, trading at 2.88, testing the 13 and 48-period exponential moving averages.",
"timestamp": "00:50",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for natural gas has turned to the upside, indicating bullish momentum.",
"timestamp": "01:10",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Warmer weather is expected for the next few days, which could influence demand.",
"timestamp": "01:15",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Increasing LNG feed gas demand is a positive factor for natural gas prices.",
"timestamp": "01:20",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Strong global LNG prices in Europe and Asia are starting to potentially pull US natural gas prices up.",
"timestamp": "02:00",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Crude oil is up today by $4.25, trading at 104.29, influenced by the US-Iran war.",
"timestamp": "02:14",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Higher crude oil prices will likely trigger higher interest rates, which will increase the cost of producing natural gas and crude oil in the future.",
"timestamp": "02:47",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "ERCOT's system-wide demand is expected to be over 88,500 MW, with renewables (mainly wind) providing almost 52,500 MW of capacity today.",
"timestamp": "03:06",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Natural gas currently accounts for just over 20,000 MW or 30.6% of ERCOT's fuel mix.",
"timestamp": "03:27",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "National grid markets like PJM and MISO are showing volatility, but prices are expected to calm down as the transition from summer to fall occurs.",
"timestamp": "03:35",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Over 19.5 million people are currently under extreme heat risk, primarily in Texas, with this number increasing to 21.9 million tomorrow before dissipating by Sunday.",
"timestamp": "04:19",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Cooler temperatures are moving into the Pacific Northwest, Colorado, Upper Midwest, and New England, signaling the approach of fall.",
"timestamp": "04:53",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The 6-10 day temperature outlook shows above-normal temperatures in the Southeast US and parts of Montana.",
"timestamp": "06:01",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The 8-14 day temperature outlook indicates above-normal temperatures across much of the US, with near-normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and parts of New England.",
"timestamp": "06:14",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Europe is still experiencing warm temperatures in France and Spain, but cooler temperatures are expected in the UK, Ireland, and Scandinavia by September 26th.",
"timestamp": "06:27",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "EU gas storage is currently at 68.8% fullness and is unlikely to reach the 80% target by November 1st, being only six weeks away.",
"timestamp": "07:25",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Asian temperatures are cooler than Houston, with storm activity across India, Southeast Asia, and Japan, and an active Pacific hurricane season.",
"timestamp": "07:44",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "European markets are favored for US spot LNG this winter, particularly for January, due to flat pricing differentials between JKM and the UK National Balancing Point.",
"timestamp": "08:31",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Cameron LNG is running at 1.493, Freeport LNG at 1.842, Corpus Christi LNG at 2.73 (almost at nameplate capacity), Venture Global Calcasieu Pass at 1.678, and Venture Global Plaquemines is running over nameplate capacity at 3.946.",
"timestamp": "09:59",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Golden Pass is ramping up but continues to disappoint, as it has yet to reach its nameplate capacity of 800-850,000 MMBTU.",
"timestamp": "11:11",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "There is one tropical system in the Mid-Atlantic with a 30% chance of cyclone formation in 7 days, potentially becoming the first named hurricane of the season, Fay.",
"timestamp": "11:30",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico (87°F) and the Atlantic (85°F) are very warm, which could fuel tropical systems.",
"timestamp": "11:44",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The Gatun Lake water level for the Panama Canal is 84.1 ft, which is a level typically seen in June, indicating it should be at least a foot higher in September.",
"timestamp": "13:39",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The Panama Canal continues to warn about super El Niño conditions and possible drought impacts to canal operations.",
"timestamp": "13:57",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Increased earthquake activity is observed along the Java Trench (Ring of Fire) in Indonesia, including a 5.6 magnitude earthquake recently, which is near the Strait of Malacca.",
"timestamp": "14:10",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Most natural gas and crude oil stocks are up, with Landbridge up 1.56%, except for CRK which is down 0.44%.",
"timestamp": "14:39",
"importance": "low"
}
],
"trade_ideas": [],
"price_levels": [
{
"note": "Current trading price",
"value": "2.883",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Oct '26 (NGV26)",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Daily pivot",
"value": "2.817",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Oct '26 (NGV26)",
"level_type": "pivot"
},
{
"note": "First resistance, now support",
"value": "2.86",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Oct '26 (NGV26)",
"level_type": "resistance"
},
{
"note": "Second resistance",
"value": "2.933",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Oct '26 (NGV26)",
"level_type": "resistance"
},
{
"note": "Current trading price",
"value": "104.29",
"instrument": "Light Crude Oil Futures (NYMEX)",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Previous spike high",
"value": "110.93",
"instrument": "Light Crude Oil Futures (NYMEX)",
"level_type": "resistance"
},
{
"note": "Previous spike high",
"value": "117.63",
"instrument": "Light Crude Oil Futures (NYMEX)",
"level_type": "resistance"
},
{
"note": "Previous spike high",
"value": "119.48",
"instrument": "Light Crude Oil Futures (NYMEX)",
"level_type": "resistance"
},
{
"note": "Expected mute price",
"value": "50",
"instrument": "ERCOT Locational Marginal Price",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Big spike volatility",
"value": "328",
"instrument": "PJM Locational Marginal Price",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Expected price",
"value": "87",
"instrument": "MISO Locational Marginal Price",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Current level",
"value": "84.1 ft",
"instrument": "Gatun Lake Water Level",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Panama Canal",
"value": "48.0 ft",
"instrument": "Neopanamax Maximum Draft",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Panama Canal",
"value": "39.5 ft",
"instrument": "Panamax Maximum Draft",
"level_type": "other"
}
],
"time_horizon": "medium_term",
"matches_filter": true,
"data_references": [
{
"value": "36 MTPA",
"metric": "LNG Shortfall",
"source": "Shell"
},
{
"value": "2.883",
"metric": "Natural Gas Oct '26 (NGV26) Price",
"period": "Current",
"source": "Barchart"
},
{
"value": "Up 4.9 cents (1.73%)",
"metric": "Natural Gas Oct '26 (NGV26) Price Change",
"period": "Current",
"source": "Barchart"
},
{
"value": "Turned to the upside",
"metric": "Natural Gas Oct '26 (NGV26) RSI",
"period": "Current",
"source": "Barchart"
},
{
"value": "2.817",
"metric": "Natural Gas Oct '26 (NGV26) Daily Pivot",
"period": "Today",
"source": "Barchart"
},
{
"value": "2.86",
"metric": "Natural Gas Oct '26 (NGV26) First Resistance/Support",
"period": "Today",
"source": "Barchart"
},
{
"value": "2.933",
"metric": "Natural Gas Oct '26 (NGV26) Second Resistance",
"period": "Today",
"source": "Barchart"
},
{
"value": "104.29",
"metric": "Light Crude Oil Futures Price",
"period": "Current",
"source": "NYMEX"
},
{
"value": "Up $4.25 (4.25%)",
"metric": "Light Crude Oil Futures Price Change",
"period": "Current",
"source": "NYMEX"
},
{
"value": "Over 88,500 MW",
"metric": "System-Wide Demand Forecast",
"period": "Current Day",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "Almost 52,500 MW",
"metric": "Combined Wind and Solar Capacity",
"period": "Current Day",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "Just over 20,000 MW (30.6%)",
"metric": "Natural Gas Fuel Mix",
"period": "Current Day",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "About $50",
"metric": "Locational Marginal Price",
"period": "Day Ahead",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "Over $328",
"metric": "Locational Marginal Price",
"period": "This Morning",
"source": "PJM"
},
{
"value": "About $87",
"metric": "Locational Marginal Price",
"period": "This Morning",
"source": "MISO"
},
{
"value": "Over 19.5 million people",
"metric": "Heat Risk - Population under Extreme Heat Risk",
"period": "Monday",
"source": "National Weather Service"
},
{
"value": "21.9 million people",
"metric": "Heat Risk - Population under Extreme Heat Risk",
"period": "Tuesday",
"source": "National Weather Service"
},
{
"value": "100,000 people",
"metric": "Heat Risk - Population under Extreme Heat Risk",
"period": "Sunday",
"source": "National Weather Service"
},
{
"value": "Above normal in Southeast US and parts of Montana",
"metric": "6-10 Day Temperature Outlook",
"period": "September 19-23, 2026",
"source": "National Weather Service"
},
{
"value": "Above normal across much of the US, near normal in Pacific Northwest and parts of New England",
"metric": "8-14 Day Temperature Outlook",
"period": "September 21-27, 2026",
"source": "National Weather Service"
},
{
"value": "68.8% (779 TWh)",
"metric": "EU Gas Storage Fullness",
"period": "Current",
"source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
},
{
"value": "80%",
"metric": "EU Gas Storage Fullness Target",
"period": "November 1st",
"source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
},
{
"value": "77 degrees",
"metric": "Tokyo Temperature",
"period": "Current",
"source": "Windy.com"
},
{
"value": "70 degrees",
"metric": "Beijing Temperature",
"period": "Current",
"source": "Windy.com"
},
{
"value": "80 degrees",
"metric": "New Delhi Temperature",
"period": "Current",
"source": "Windy.com"
},
{
"value": "1,493,578",
"metric": "Cameron LNG Operating Capacity",
"period": "Current",
"source": "Cameron Interstate Pipeline LLC"
},
{
"value": "1.842 BCF",
"metric": "Freeport LNG Total Scheduled Quantity",
"period": "Current",
"source": "Freeport LNG"
},
{
"value": "2,730,000",
"metric": "Corpus Christi LNG Total Scheduled Quantity",
"period": "Current",
"source": "Cheniere Corpus Christi Pipeline, L.P."
},
{
"value": "1,678,000",
"metric": "Calcasieu Pass Total Scheduled Quantity",
"period": "Current",
"source": "Venture Global Calcasieu Pass"
},
{
"value": "3,946,929",
"metric": "Plaquemines Total Scheduled Quantity",
"period": "Current",
"source": "Venture Global Plaquemines"
},
{
"value": "587,453 MMBTU",
"metric": "Golden Pass Total Scheduled Quantity",
"period": "Current",
"source": "Golden Pass Pipeline"
},
{
"value": "30%",
"metric": "Tropical System Formation Chance",
"period": "7 Days",
"source": "National Hurricane Center"
},
{
"value": "87 degrees",
"metric": "Gulf of Mexico Water Temperature",
"period": "Monday 9:03 AM",
"source": "Klystron 9"
},
{
"value": "85 degrees",
"metric": "Atlantic Water Temperature",
"period": "Monday 9:03 AM",
"source": "Klystron 9"
},
{
"value": "New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas Panhandle, Colorado, Southern Idaho, parts of Oregon",
"metric": "Exceptional Drought Areas",
"period": "September 10, 2026",
"source": "U.S. Drought Monitor"
},
{
"value": "84.1 ft",
"metric": "Gatun Lake Water Level",
"period": "September 14, 2026",
"source": "Canal de Panama"
},
{
"value": "0.45%",
"metric": "Variable Fresh Water Surcharge",
"period": "September 14, 2026",
"source": "Canal de Panama"
},
{
"value": "48.0 ft",
"metric": "Neopanamax Maximum Draft",
"period": "September 14, 2026",
"source": "Canal de Panama"
},
{
"value": "39.5 ft",
"metric": "Panamax Maximum Draft",
"period": "September 14, 2026",
"source": "Canal de Panama"
},
{
"value": "Multiple earthquakes around Indonesia, including a 5.6 magnitude 3 hours ago, and a 6.5 magnitude 2 days ago.",
"metric": "Earthquake Activity",
"period": "Recent",
"source": "USGS"
}
],
"match_reasoning": "The video substantively discusses natural gas, including futures prices, LNG demand, and related weather and geopolitical factors."
},
"video_id": "mpIoNaq0CP8",
"video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpIoNaq0CP8",
"transcript": "Good morning, Natural Gas. Today is Monday, September the 14th, 2026. I'm Tim Beggins, President of Elk Trading Company, and this is the top news for Natural Gas. Number one, the Iran-US war continues to expand, now including Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Number two, Shell is warning that there is a 36 MTPA or million tons per annum shortfall of LNG due to the war. Number three, Cove Point LNG is set to undergo maintenance starting next week. And number four, in the US, LNG feeds facilities now are ramping up feed-gas demand ahead of winter. Let's turn to the spot October Natural Gas contract. We're currently up. We're currently trading at 2.88, up 4.9 cents or 1.73%. And as you can see, we're testing the 13 and 48-period exponential moving averages. So, after last week's late sell-off, here we are again, popping right back up. And it looks like the RSI has turned to the upside. That's good news here. Why? One, the weather has gotten a little bit warmer, at least for the next few days. Number two, LNG feed gas demand is increasing. That's good news as well. And number three, the Iran-US war continues to expand. So, it looks like it's going to be a heavy, heavy pit lift here for US LNG this winter. Let's take a look at the hourly chart. And as you can see, we are above the daily pivot, which came in today at 2.817. The RSI is trying to turn to the upside here. We went through first resistance, now support, which came in at 2.86. We are currently at 2.89 on second resistance, well above it 2.9330. But again, the RSI is trying to turn to the upside here. So, it looks like the strong LNG prices globally in Europe and Asia are now starting to possibly pull US natural gas prices up a little bit. Let's see. Let's take a look at the big news today, and that's crude oil up again today, up $4.25 right now, we're over 4.25% because we're currently trading at 104.29. That's amazing price here. And as you can see, our three spikes here to the upside, 110.93, 117.63, 119.48, all coming off of this US-Iran war. So, here we go again. The RSI is moving to the upside. We'll keep a careful eye on this because this will probably trigger higher interest rates, which will also lift costs here for natural gas because everything is at a cost of capital. And that means that producing natural gas and crude oil will become more expensive in the future. Let's take a look at the grid here for ERCOT. And right now, we are currently expected to be over 88,500 megawatts. But renewables are doing a good job today, mainly because wind is coming up again for the next few days. And as you can see here, we're going to get almost 52,500 megawatts of renewable capacity today in ERCOT. As a result here, natural gas is just over 20,000 megawatts in the system, or over 30.6% of the fuel mix. Let's turn to the national grid. Yesterday, PJM was all over the map. Behind me, MISO here this morning, a little bit of activity here. It is expected to be about $87 and change. ERCOT, though, is expected to be fairly mute at about $50 here. And PJM this morning, big spike volatility this morning over $328. That has been a volatile power market. Underneath that, MISO as well, also picking up a little bit of volatility. But in general, as we transition from summer into fall, these things should start to calm down a little bit. We'll see. Let's keep a careful eye on PJM. And let's take a look at the heat risk here. And as you can see, right now, we have over 19.5 million people here under extreme heat risk, mainly in Texas, Dallas, all the way down to Houston. Yesterday here in Houston, 106 on the heat index. I'm getting tired of this. Let's take a look at what happens tomorrow on Tuesday. 21.9 million people. And it continues into Wednesday as well. And then it starts to dissipate a little bit starting on Thursday, and again on Friday. And by Sunday here, you could see we're only down to 100,000 people under extreme heat risk here, mainly in Texas. So, you could see cooler temperatures are coming down into the Pacific Northwest, down toward Colorado, and in course, the upper Midwest here and New England. So, that is good news for space heating load eventually, but right now, it is about summer starting to exit. Let's take a look at the models here. And going further on the risk here, you can start to see that the triple digits continue here for the parts of the South, all the way through here to the 27th and 28th. And that's the, uh, you know, increased demand here we saw on the models this morning from the weekend. But right now, as you can see, as we get further and further, look at the cooler temperatures coming down into Colorado, into the 50s there. And then, as you could see, still 78, 79 degrees in the cities for Texas. But look at the Midwest here, 57 up in Minnesota, 59 in Milwaukee here, and parts of New England here in the 50s as well. So, here comes the fall in the northern tier. Let's turn to the 6-10 day outlook. As you can see, above normal temperatures still sitting in the Southeast, in particular from Texas all the way to South Carolina, North Carolina. And then a little bit here, upper Montana for now. But as you can see, that moves over a little bit here in the 8-14 day temperature outlook. Starts near normal across the Pacific Northwest and parts of New England. And let's take a look at Europe because it is still warm in France and Spain right now. That continues for the next day. And then you can see some cooler temperatures start to show back up, uh, before we get warm yet again on the 20th and 21st, all the way through the 24th, 25th here. And cooler temperatures start coming in to the UK and Ireland on the 25th. Obviously, Scandinavia. There's the cooler temperatures back on the 26th. That's finally kicking some of that heat back out before it shows up a little bit here at the end of the forecast map. So, here comes fall, at least for Europe. You can see Scandinavia, parts of Norway here are going to be cooler, much cooler than normal. And let's take a look at the European storage. Right now, this is Great Britain, unfortunately, at 31.3%. That has remained flat for the last three weeks. So, I don't know if that's a data collection problem, or they're simply just not reporting it. But let's take a look. We're EU here, 68% We got to be a little careful with that Great Britain, whether or not it's skewing the numbers here. But right now, they are expected to get up to 80% by November the 1st. That's not happening. It's only six weeks away. There's no chance. Let's take a look at Asia here. And there's the temperatures for Tokyo, 77 degrees right now. Beijing at 70, and New Delhi at 80. They're all cooler than Houston. And as you can see from the satellites here, we're going to get some storm activity across India right now, parts of Southeast Asia, even Japan here. Let's take a look at the Pacific here. And as you can see, across the Pacific, active, active, active. That's unlike the Atlantic season. All of this is going to start making its way toward Southeast Asia for the monsoonal rains. And let's take a look at JKM versus the National Balancing Point, the UK pricing here. This is for January, completely flat. And that's as of Friday, which means that Europe is favored for US spot LNG this winter, just for January, though. We'll keep a careful eye on this because it continues to move back and forth here. That is still a, you know, no differential. That means that Europe gets the cargos. We've got to see at least, you know, 75 cents to $1.50, depending on where you're going in Asia, in order for those cargos to move from US to Asia. Let's take a look at the weather in Asia here. As you can see, cooler temperatures right now across Japan and Korea, before some warmer temperatures start to show back up here on the 18th. And this continues for the next few days. But then cooler weather starts to really come in here at the end of the forecast period here. And as you can see, India, Asia, uh, China, excuse me, Japan, Korea here, right at the end, cooler, cooler temperatures. The warm air is stuck back in Mongolia and the desert parts of China. Let's take a look at the LNG. And there is an LNG tanker at Ras Laffan, but it is not at one of the loading berths. It's sitting at the dock. So, we don't know if that's for repairs or some maybe crew switching. But at least it's sitting there at the dock. And there is very little traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz because we've still got a shooting war. At least one tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. And let's take a look at the US. This is Cameron LNG, running at 1.493. That's good news there. Steady as she goes. It's a little bit off from the weekend. Here's Freeport, running right now at 1.842. That's good news. It's been very steady over Sunday, yesterday. And we'll see if it continues to ramp up toward its nameplate capacity of 2.2 BCF. And here is Creole Trail that feeds Sabine Pass, one of the pipelines. It still has a little bit of capacity open here. That's still steady, though. That's good news there. Here is Corpus Christi. Very good news there. 2.73. That's fantastic news. Almost at nameplate capacity there. Here's Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass. Steady as she goes. 1.678. That is steady. There is still capacity to grow this. We will see this start to be taken up with CP2 as it comes online. And here is Venture Global's Plaquemines. Again, they expanded the capacity here. So, there is still, they're running over nameplate capacity right now, 3.946. But as you can see, the pipeline capacity has been moved up. And here is Golden Pass. 587,000. It was lower than this over the weekend here. It is ramping up right now. We'll keep a careful eye on this, but this pokey puppy continues to disappoint. It has yet to get to nameplate capacity of 800 to 850,000 MMBTU's. Let's take a look at the tropics. We've got one tropical system to keep a careful eye on over the next seven days. It's in the Mid-Atlantic, moving from the East over to the West here. It is only got a 30% chance. And the water temperatures are very, very warm across the Gulf and the Atlantic. In the Atlantic here, 85 degrees, 87 in the Gulf. This is very, very warm. As you can see in the Gulf here, there's a strange East to West flow here from Florida all the way back over to Texas here. And then you see the system coming off of Mexico pushing in the opposite direction. So, we've got this counter-clockwise rotation here in the Gulf. And let's take a look at that bigger picture here. Here is the system out in the Mid-Atlantic. Really looks like the Eye of Sauron. But if it shows up and actually becomes the first named hurricane of the season, it would be called Fay, F-A-Y. As you can see, coming off Africa, some activity there, but very disorganized. Otherwise, there is nothing else out there at this time. There is that hazard you could see in September the 23rd through the 29th. That is that system there for Fay, potentially. And here is why we're kind of just maybe thinking it has a chance is the Saharan Air Layer. As you can see, the dust continues to come off the continent. There are these big plumes of it pushing all the way back up toward Europe now, as yet that first big punch of it is now pushing into Central Mexico, uh, Central America and Mexico, coming across the Caribbean as well. Yet another swath is coming across here, as you can see, over the next few days. Let's take a look at the drought. As you can see from last week, here it is, the drought. It is continuing to be really exceptional drought between New Mexico all the way back over to Oklahoma, in the Texas Panhandle, as well as Colorado and Southern Idaho, as well as part of Oregon. And let's take a look at Gatun. This is the Panama Canal main lake here that we look at. It is running at 84.1 feet in elevation. That's good news there. But as you can see from the historical records, it, that is the level it should be in June. And here we are in September. It should be at least a foot higher. That is why Panama Canal continues to warn about super El Niño conditions and possible drought impacts to the canal operations. And lastly here, let's take a look at the activity here for earthquakes around Indonesia. This was the hurricane, excuse me, the volcano, I can't talk today. The volcano here just to the west of Jakarta. We are starting to see more and more earthquake activity along this Java Trench here, the Ring of Fire in this area of Indonesia, all the way up here as well. So, we'll keep a careful eye on that because there is the Strait of Malacca. That's the second most important strait right now in the world. Let's take a look at the stocks because crude and natural gas are up. Everybody's up except for CRK. Jerry Jones is, uh, natural gas producer. Well, they did lose the Giants last night. Sorry about the Super Bowl, uh, prospects there. But everything else behind me here, Landbridge is up 1.56%. Sorry, I just couldn't help myself. Here we are again for the October Natural Gas contract. We're currently trading at 2.8830, up 5.2 cents or 1.84%. Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below. Please hit that like and subscribe button. Thanks for listening. We'll see you soon.",
"description": "Tim Beggans covers the bounce back toward the 13- and 48-period EMAs, four top headlines, WTI over $104, ERCOT and national grid demand, lingering Texas heat vs incoming northern fall, Europe/UK storage, JKM vs NBP, quiet Hormuz after a weekend tanker hit, U.S. LNG feedgas ramping into winter, a Mid-Atlantic tropical watch (possible Fay), West drought, Lake Gatun, Java Trench quakes, and the E&P watch list.\nTop news:\n\nIran–U.S. war expands to include Yemen and Saudi Arabia\nShell warns of a ~36 MTPA LNG shortfall due to the war\nCove Point LNG maintenance starting next week\nU.S. LNG terminals ramping feedgas ahead of winter\n\nContract / levels:\n\nOctober near 2.880–2.883, up ~5¢\nTesting the 13- and 48-period EMAs\nDaily pivot ~2.817\nFirst resistance now support ~2.860\nSecond resistance ~2.933\n\nNG Stock Watch List Oil & Gas EMP Sector\nMarket Cap 2-10B, High short float over 10% \nBKV | CNX | CRGY | CRK | LB | MTDR | NOG\n\nTimestamps\n0:00 – Open & top four headlines\n\n0:52 – October bounce, 13/48 EMAs\n\n1:39 – Hourly pivot, resistance & global LNG pull\n\n2:15 – WTI over $104; Iran war spikes\n\n3:07 – ERCOT load, strong wind, gas share of fuel mix\n\n3:38 – National grid (MISO, ERCOT, PJM, NYISO)\n\n4:17 – U.S. heat-risk maps\n\n5:17 – Extended models; fall in the northern tier\n\n6:04 – 6-10 day & 8-14 day outlooks\n\n6:31 – Europe weather\n\n7:13 – UK / EU storage\n\n7:47 – Asia temperatures & Pacific storms\n\n8:24 – January JKM vs NBP\n\n9:01 – Asia forecast maps\n\n9:35 – Ras Laffan tanker; Hormuz hit over the weekend\n\n10:02 – U.S. LNG terminals\n\n11:32 – Tropics: Mid-Atlantic 30% system, possible Fay\n\n12:44 – Hazard outlook & Saharan dust\n\n13:19 – Drought monitor\n\n13:38 – Lake Gatun / Panama Canal\n\n14:11 – Java Trench / Anak Krakatau\n\n14:40 – E&P watch list\n\n15:04 – Recap & close",
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"published_at": "2026-09-14T14:33:21Z",
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"reporting_date": "2026-09-14",
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