Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

September 11, 2026 at 03:17 PM

Completed At

September 11, 2026 at 03:18 PM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

Natural Gas Weekly Recap - October Futures (NGV26 @ 2.824) | 09.11.2026

Data Preview

{
  "title": "Natural Gas Weekly Recap - October Futures (NGV26 @ 2.824) | 09.11.2026",
  "filter": {
    "keywords": [
      "natural gas"
    ],
    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
    ],
    "semantic_filter": true
  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@ElKTradingCoLLC",
    "title": "ELK TRADING Co LLC | Natural Gas Trading",
    "handle": "ElKTradingCoLLC",
    "channel_id": "UCcvcKcyIO_nhZrRubvfxO3w"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "The Strait of Hormuz looks closed at least through the end of the year due to a 'shooting war' between Iran and the US, causing panic in global LNG markets.",
      "European gas storage targets of 80% full by November 1st are unlikely to be met, especially in Germany, which is only 55.2% full.",
      "The Interior West of the US remains extremely dry, with drought conditions expanding, which could impact natural gas demand for power generation if hydro resources are limited."
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Natural Gas Futures",
      "Natural Gas Storage",
      "LNG Exports",
      "Weather Forecasts (US, Europe, Asia)",
      "Electricity Markets",
      "Drought",
      "Geopolitics"
    ],
    "summary": "The natural gas market is currently in a mixed state, with October futures down slightly. While US LNG exports are robust and some regions are experiencing heat, cooler weather is forecast for parts of the US and Europe later in September. European gas storage levels, particularly in Germany, are struggling to meet targets, and global LNG prices are skyrocketing due to geopolitical tensions and perceived supply issues in the Strait of Hormuz.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "Tim Beggins",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "President of Elk Trading Company"
      },
      {
        "name": "Elk Trading Company",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Company of the speaker"
      },
      {
        "name": "Natural Gas",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Primary commodity discussed"
      },
      {
        "name": "LNG",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Liquefied Natural Gas, discussed in relation to global markets and US exports"
      },
      {
        "name": "EIA",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "U.S. Energy Information Administration, source of storage reports"
      },
      {
        "name": "ERCOT",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Electric Reliability Council of Texas, discussed for system demand and fuel mix"
      },
      {
        "name": "PJM",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "PJM Interconnection, discussed for electricity prices"
      },
      {
        "name": "MISO",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Midcontinent Independent System Operator, discussed for electricity prices"
      },
      {
        "name": "NWS",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "National Weather Service, source of heat risk and temperature outlooks"
      },
      {
        "name": "CDC",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, mentioned in relation to heat risk"
      },
      {
        "name": "ECMWF",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, source of weather models"
      },
      {
        "name": "KYOS",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "European gas analytics provider"
      },
      {
        "name": "Sempra",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Operator of Cameron LNG"
      },
      {
        "name": "Venture Global",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Operator of Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines LNG"
      },
      {
        "name": "TransCameron",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Pipeline operator"
      },
      {
        "name": "Cheniere",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Operator of Creole Trail and Corpus Christi LNG"
      },
      {
        "name": "Texas",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Affected by heat risk and drought, ERCOT operations"
      },
      {
        "name": "Oklahoma",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Affected by heat risk and drought"
      },
      {
        "name": "Arkansas",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Affected by heat risk"
      },
      {
        "name": "Louisiana",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Affected by heat risk"
      },
      {
        "name": "Florida",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Affected by heat risk, temperature outlooks, and potential tropical activity"
      },
      {
        "name": "Upper Midwest",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Expected to see cooler weather"
      },
      {
        "name": "New England",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Expected to see cooler weather"
      },
      {
        "name": "Great Lakes",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Expected to see cooler weather"
      },
      {
        "name": "Germany",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "European country with significant gas storage concerns"
      },
      {
        "name": "Europe",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Discussed for gas storage and weather"
      },
      {
        "name": "Asia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Discussed for weather and LNG demand"
      },
      {
        "name": "Strait of Hormuz",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Geopolitical chokepoint affecting LNG prices"
      },
      {
        "name": "Iran",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Mentioned in context of a 'shooting war' with the US"
      },
      {
        "name": "US",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Mentioned in context of a 'shooting war' with Iran"
      },
      {
        "name": "Drought",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Discussed for US conditions"
      },
      {
        "name": "El Nino",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Hoped to alleviate drought in the US"
      },
      {
        "name": "Crescent Energy",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
      },
      {
        "name": "Landbridge",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 1.0,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "The October Natural Gas contract is currently trading down slightly at 2.817, with the RSI still in sell mode and below key exponential moving averages.",
        "timestamp": "00:20",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Despite a big drop yesterday after the storage report, the market recovered well, indicating uncertainty about its direction.",
        "timestamp": "00:37",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The daily pivot for natural gas is at 2.81, with first support at 2.777 and first resistance at 2.868.",
        "timestamp": "00:49",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The EIA reported a +40 BCF natural gas storage injection for the week ending September 4, 2026, which was higher than the +31 BCF expectations and bullish compared to last year and the five-year average.",
        "timestamp": "01:14",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Next week's EIA storage report is also expected to be bullish relative to last year but slightly bearish to the five-year average, with the deficit continuing to narrow.",
        "timestamp": "01:28",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "ERCOT system demand is expected to exceed 87,600 MW today, with renewables contributing up to 37,000 MW and natural gas making up 46% of the fuel mix (~30,000 MW).",
        "timestamp": "01:55",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Extreme heat risk in the US is expanding over the weekend, affecting up to 12.6 million people by Monday, primarily in Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, but is expected to dissipate by Thursday.",
        "timestamp": "03:00",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Cooler weather is forecast for the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and parts of New England in the 6-10 day outlook, and more cold air is expected in the 8-14 day outlook, pushing above-normal temperatures out of most of the system.",
        "timestamp": "04:39",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "European Union gas storage is currently 67.6% full, with Germany at 55.2%, making it unlikely they will reach their 80% target by November 1st.",
        "timestamp": "06:05",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures for January 2027 are skyrocketing, up 3.55% yesterday to over $27.82/MMBTU, and JKM futures are even stronger at $28.385, indicating panic due to the perceived closure of the Strait of Hormuz.",
        "timestamp": "07:08",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "US LNG export terminals, including Cameron, Freeport, Creole Trail (Sabine Pass), Corpus Christi, and Plaquemines (Gator Express), are operating at or near nameplate capacity, showing strong export activity.",
        "timestamp": "08:58",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the Atlantic for the next 7 days, marking the latest period without a hurricane in the Atlantic season.",
        "timestamp": "10:19",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Drought conditions in the US have expanded, particularly in the Interior West, including Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Southern Idaho, and parts of Oregon.",
        "timestamp": "11:29",
        "importance": "medium"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [
      {
        "note": "Current trading price, down 1.7 cents or 0.6%",
        "value": "2.817",
        "instrument": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NOV26) futures",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Daily pivot",
        "value": "2.81",
        "instrument": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NOV26) futures",
        "level_type": "pivot"
      },
      {
        "note": "First support level",
        "value": "2.777",
        "instrument": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NOV26) futures",
        "level_type": "support"
      },
      {
        "note": "First resistance level",
        "value": "2.868",
        "instrument": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NOV26) futures",
        "level_type": "resistance"
      },
      {
        "note": "Expected to be close to $100",
        "value": "100",
        "instrument": "PJM electricity prices",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Expected to be close to $103",
        "value": "103",
        "instrument": "MISO electricity prices",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Expected to be around $56 due to high renewables",
        "value": "56",
        "instrument": "ERCOT electricity prices",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Over $27.82/MMBTU, up 3.55% yesterday",
        "value": "27.82",
        "instrument": "Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures (Jan 2027)",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "$28.385, up 3.03% yesterday",
        "value": "28.385",
        "instrument": "LNG Japan Korea Marker (JKM) Futures (Jan 2027)",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Recap price, down a penny or 0.35%",
        "value": "2.824",
        "instrument": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NOV26) futures",
        "level_type": "other"
      }
    ],
    "time_horizon": "short_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "value": "+40 BCF",
        "metric": "Net change in working gas in underground storage",
        "period": "week ending Sep 4, 2026",
        "source": "EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report"
      },
      {
        "value": "+31 BCF",
        "metric": "Expected net change in working gas in underground storage",
        "period": "week ending Sep 4, 2026",
        "source": "EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report"
      },
      {
        "value": "+69 BCF",
        "metric": "Net change in working gas in underground storage",
        "period": "year ago (Sep 04, 2025)",
        "source": "EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report"
      },
      {
        "value": "+52 BCF",
        "metric": "Net change in working gas in underground storage",
        "period": "5-year average (2021-25)",
        "source": "EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report"
      },
      {
        "value": "+87 BCF",
        "metric": "Net change in working gas in underground storage",
        "period": "last year (next week's report)",
        "source": "EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report"
      },
      {
        "value": "+74 BCF",
        "metric": "Net change in working gas in underground storage",
        "period": "5-year average (next week's report)",
        "source": "EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report"
      },
      {
        "value": "over 87,600 MW",
        "metric": "System-Wide Demand Forecast",
        "period": "today, Sep 11, 2026",
        "source": "ERCOT"
      },
      {
        "value": "up to 37,000 MW",
        "metric": "Combined Wind and Solar Generation",
        "period": "today, Sep 11, 2026",
        "source": "ERCOT"
      },
      {
        "value": "46%",
        "metric": "Natural Gas Fuel Mix Percentage",
        "period": "today, Sep 11, 2026",
        "source": "ERCOT"
      },
      {
        "value": "almost 30,000 MW",
        "metric": "Natural Gas Fuel Mix Generation",
        "period": "today, Sep 11, 2026",
        "source": "ERCOT"
      },
      {
        "value": "3 million people",
        "metric": "Heat Risk - Extreme",
        "period": "Sep 11, 2026",
        "source": "National Weather Service (NWS)"
      },
      {
        "value": "5.2 million people",
        "metric": "Heat Risk - Extreme",
        "period": "Sep 12, 2026 (Saturday)",
        "source": "National Weather Service (NWS)"
      },
      {
        "value": "12.2 million people",
        "metric": "Heat Risk - Extreme",
        "period": "Sep 13, 2026 (Sunday)",
        "source": "National Weather Service (NWS)"
      },
      {
        "value": "12.6 million people",
        "metric": "Heat Risk - Extreme",
        "period": "Sep 14, 2026 (Monday)",
        "source": "National Weather Service (NWS)"
      },
      {
        "value": "Below normal for Minnesota, parts of Wisconsin, Upper Peninsula of Michigan, parts of New England; Above normal for Interior Southwest, Texas to Florida",
        "metric": "6-10 Day Temperature Outlook",
        "period": "Valid Sep 16-20, 2026, Issued Sep 10, 2026",
        "source": "National Weather Service (NWS)"
      },
      {
        "value": "More cold air coming through Great Lakes, pushing most above normal temperatures out except for the West and parts of Florida",
        "metric": "8-14 Day Temperature Outlook",
        "period": "Valid Sep 18-24, 2026, Issued Sep 10, 2026",
        "source": "National Weather Service (NWS)"
      },
      {
        "value": "67.6%",
        "metric": "Underground gas storage fullness: EU",
        "period": "Current (Sep 2026)",
        "source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
      },
      {
        "value": "55.2%",
        "metric": "Underground gas storage fullness: Germany",
        "period": "Current (Sep 2026)",
        "source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
      },
      {
        "value": "Tokyo 68 degrees, Beijing 71 degrees, Hong Kong 77 degrees, New Delhi 79 degrees",
        "metric": "Temperature",
        "period": "Current (Asia)",
        "source": "Windy.com"
      },
      {
        "value": "1.533 BCF",
        "metric": "Cameron LNG Flow",
        "period": "Sep 11, 2026",
        "source": "Sempra LNG & Midstream"
      },
      {
        "value": "1.901 BCF",
        "metric": "Total Scheduled Quantity",
        "period": "Sep 11, 2026",
        "source": "Freeport LNG"
      },
      {
        "value": "1.51 BCF",
        "metric": "Delivery to Sabine Pass",
        "period": "Sep 11, 2026",
        "source": "Cheniere Creole Trail Pipeline"
      },
      {
        "value": "over 2.7 BCF",
        "metric": "Delivery to Corpus Christi",
        "period": "Sep 11, 2026",
        "source": "Cheniere Corpus Christi Pipeline"
      },
      {
        "value": "1.674 BCF",
        "metric": "Venture Global Calcasieu Pass Flow",
        "period": "Sep 11, 2026",
        "source": "TransCameron"
      },
      {
        "value": "4 BCF",
        "metric": "Plaquemines LNG (Gator Express) Flow",
        "period": "Sep 10, 2026",
        "source": "Venture Global"
      },
      {
        "value": "495,000 MMBTU",
        "metric": "Flow to Golden Pass",
        "period": "Sep 11, 2026",
        "source": "Golden Pass Pipeline"
      },
      {
        "value": "No disturbances expected",
        "metric": "Tropical Cyclone Activity",
        "period": "next 7 days",
        "source": "National Weather Service (NWS)"
      },
      {
        "value": "Expanded in Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Southern Idaho, parts of Oregon",
        "metric": "Drought conditions",
        "period": "Sep 8, 2026",
        "source": "U.S. Drought Monitor"
      }
    ],
    "match_reasoning": "The video substantively discusses natural gas prices, storage reports, LNG exports, and weather forecasts directly impacting natural gas markets."
  },
  "video_id": "S_6TJH3vULo",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_6TJH3vULo",
  "transcript": "Good morning, natural gas. Today is Friday, September the 11th, 2026. I'm Tim Beggins, President of Elk Trading Company. Today marks the 25th anniversary of the events of 9/11, where my wife and I did lose a lot of friends and colleagues. Lest we forget today. Let's turn to the October natural gas contract. We're currently down a little bit. We're currently trading at 2.8170, down 1.7 cents or 0.6%. As you can see, the RSI still remains in the sell mode right now. We are below the 13 and 48 period exponential moving averages. We did have a big drop yesterday after the storage report, but we recovered quite well. And so now the market is trying to figure out which way do we go. Let's turn to the hourly chart, and we are at the daily pivot, which came in today at 2.81. Currently, first support 2.7770. We've bounced from that, and the RSI has turned higher. So, our first resistance level 2.8680. Right now, the market doesn't look bullish, but it also isn't quite bearish yet either, even with the weather, because LNG is picking up. Let's take a look at the EIA report yesterday. Plus 40 BCF. Expectations were closer to 31 BCF, but it was bullish versus the last year's number at 69 and the five-year average at plus 52. This is going to be the same case next Thursday as well, because the numbers are quite high. Last year plus 87 BCF, so this and plus 74 were for the five-year average. So, next week's storage report also is going to be bullish, which means that we are going to continue to look bullish relative to last year, but slightly bearish to the five-year average, but that deficit is continuing to narrow. Let's turn to ERCOT here today. We are expected to be over 87,600 megawatts in the system. Renewables are picking up a little bit here, up to 37,000 megawatts. Wind is going to recover late in the day, but right now natural gas is picking up 46% of the fuel mix here, almost 30,000 megawatts. That's good news there. Solar is picking up as well, but wind is low, but it will recover late this afternoon. Let's take a look at the rest of the grid. And as you can see, there's PJM going to be close to $100. It is a little volatile this morning, jumping up and down. MISO behind me looks like it's going to be the particular region here. We're going to see a little bit higher prices here, close to 103. And above, as you can see in ERCOT, it is expected to be around $56. So, that's because high renewables later this afternoon. Let's take a look at the heat index here. And this map here is going to disappear in a few weeks because we're going to start losing the extreme heat and the major heat risk here. Right now, extreme heat for almost 3 million people. This expands as we get into the weekend here, 5.2 million people on Saturday, Sunday 12.2 million people. Come in on Monday. Here it is, 12.6 million people here under extreme heat risk. This is mainly in Texas, parts of Oklahoma, and Arkansas. And as we get into Tuesday, that continues to expand even further because it is picking up the major cities in Texas. And let's take a look at Wednesday. Yes, stay still stays around, but by Thursday, take a look, it dissipates. And look at the cooler weather coming in the Upper Midwest here, especially down into Nebraska, down toward Chicago, Detroit, coming into New York State, all the way down toward Boston here, and Montana and parts of the Pacific Northwest. Let's take a look at the model runs a little further past that. And as you can see right now, the 100-degree heat indices start to collapse here as we get further and further into the end of September here. You can start to see relatively 101, 100 here into Texas and Louisiana on the 22nd. Then you continue to go to the 23rd. We start seeing just hundreds in Texas and parts of Louisiana. And then really, we just don't see much going in here. Triple digits disappear. That's right. There's only one here left here in Florida for the humidity because of that late lingering summer heat. But again, this is coming up almost to October. So, the summer is about to end. Let's take a look at the 6-10 day temperature outlook here. As you can see, 6-10 is below normal temperatures for Minnesota, parts of Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Parts of New England as well. Above normal temperatures here, interior Southwest here. And as you can see, Texas all the way to Florida. 8-14 day temperature, more cold air is coming in through the Great Lakes. And as you can see, that's pushing most of the above normal temperatures out of the system, except for the West and parts of Florida. Let's take a look at Europe. And this is a good news here. For now, we've got some warmer temperatures coming through here. Uh, right now, you can see some warmer temperatures coming up this weekend here in parts of Spain and France here on the 13th. Then we start seeing some cooler weather finally show up here late in the forecast period here. If we could get this thing to work this morning. All right, here we go. There it is. We're getting really cold temperatures here late in the forecast period toward the 25th here, 24th, into France and Spain. And uh, excuse me, France and Germany. So then, there's that cooler weather on September the 25th. Really, Spain still stays fairly warm. France is a little bit warmer, but you could see Germany all the way back over here into what was formerly Yugoslavia here, this Croatia here, Bosnia, Herzegovina. And as you can see, all the way over into Ukraine, cooler temperatures are arriving. Let's take a look at storage in the EU. 67.6% full. That's okay news. Again, we've got to get up to 80% full. That's their target by November the 1st. And good luck with that. It's not going to happen. Because we've got some problem countries. Again, the biggest one here, the biggest consumer in Europe is Germany. And it is sitting at 55.2% full. Injections have dipped off a little bit here. That's not good news. They will be lucky to get to 70% full by November the 1st. Let's take a look at the weather in Asia. And as you can see, monsoonal rains are coming through the Philippines right now, Vietnam, Cambodia, and India as well. There's some cooler temperatures also coming in here. Let's take a look at that. You can see Tokyo, 68 degrees. Beijing, 71. Hong Kong, 77. New Delhi, 79. This is cooler than Houston, Texas. All right, let's take a look at the LNG because we still have a shooting war between Iran and the US. And here is the TTF contract for January. Just skyrocketing yesterday, up 3.55% here. That's over $27.82 per MMBTU. That's right. We can't even get $3 in the United States, and it's trading almost 10X in the TTF contract for January. How about JKM? Yeah, same thing. This is even a little bit stronger here, 28.385 right now. Yesterday up 3.03%. So, panic is starting to set in for the Strait of Hormuz because it looks closed at least through the end of this year. Let's take a look at Asia. This is the weather map here. Cooler temperatures across Eastern provinces of China. Cooler temperatures because of the monsoonal rains going into India here. And then we get warmer temperatures start to pop up here about the 15th of September here. This is pushing north of Shanghai up to capital city of Beijing. As you can see on the 18th, some warmer temperatures still linger in this area here. Although we do see cooler intrusions coming in from Mongolia and parts of Siberia before some more warm temperatures come off this desert here in Western China and start to try and push eastward. Let's take a look at the LNG over at Ras Laffan. And yes, we've got two tankers, two LNG tankers loading up at Ras Laffan. But again, the Strait is really quite thin right now. There are some ships going through the the Strait of Hormuz, but we still have a big backlog here in Oman and Abu Dhabi. Let's take a look at US LNG. Cameron LNG up to 1.533. That's fantastic news. Almost at nameplate capacity. How about Freeport? Popped up here, 1.91, or 1.901, excuse me. And here is Creole Trail feeding Sabine Pass, also doing quite well. 1.51, ramping up there as well. Here is Corpus Christi, running over 2.7. Fantastic news there. Here is Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass. Steady as she goes. Still has some room to grow here. That is into Calcasieu Pass 2. And as you can see, that is under construction. Right now, we're running over 1.674. How about Plaquemines? Now, they bumped up the capacity, the design capacity of Plaquemines here. So, it looks like there's all this extra capacity over 500,000, but it's running at 4 BCF, which is over nameplate capacity as of yesterday. So, good news here. Everything's expanding in US LNG. Except, yeah, Golden Pass. This is the pokey puppy. It's at 495,000 MMBTU's. It still remains about two-thirds of the way for train one capacity. So, let's hope that continues to improve. Tropical, nothing. In fact, this is going to be the latest period that we've never gotten a hurricane in the Atlantic season. So, right now, nothing's expected. So, if something pops up, it will be for the historical record books. Let's take a look at the Gulf. And there is some moisture coming off of Houston here. We are expected to get some rain periodically for the next few days. And around Mississippi and parts of the Florida Panhandle. Let's take a look at the bigger picture. And there's nothing out there, folks. There is expected to be something here in about 10 days off the Bahamas and Florida. That's the tropical hazards outlook. Yeah, there could be a low pressure system there, but right now, we don't have anything materially to watch. How about the the Saharan Air Layer? You bet. It's out there. It's flexing its muscle right now. It looks like some sort of ant here, ant leg. There is still some more pluming coming off of the African coast right here, and actually pushing north toward Europe at this stage. Most of this is heading toward Central America. And we've got the drought, which has expanded here. This is the latest drought map here. And as you can see, the drought continues to get worse and worse from Colorado to New Mexico, to Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle here. Of course, Southern Idaho and parts of Oregon. So, the East Coast slightly improving here, not by much, but the Interior West remains extremely dry. Hopefully, Super El Nino can alleviate much of that from New Mexico all the way over to Oklahoma. Let's take a look at the stocks in the oil and gas E&P sector, stocks between $2 and $10 billion. Have a high short float over 10%. And it's pretty much a mixed bag here today. We've only got two companies here, Crescent Energy and behind me, Landbridge that are slightly positive here. Landbridge up 0.31%. Uh, 0.31%, yes. Uh, let's take a recap here on the October natural gas contract, currently trading at 2.8240, down just a penny or 0.35%. As you can see, the RSI is going sideways. There is probably a little bit more short covering coming up, possibly move back up to first pivot resistance. Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below. Please hit that like and subscribe button. Thanks for listening. We'll see you soon.",
  "description": "Tim Beggans opens with a 9/11 remembrance, then recaps October NG after yesterday’s storage print, the bounce off first support, ERCOT and national grid demand, lingering Texas heat vs incoming northern fall, Europe/Asia weather and storage, TTF/JKM January panic with Hormuz still tight, two tankers at Ras Laffan, strong U.S. LNG feedgas, a historically quiet Atlantic, West drought, and the E&P watch list.\nContract / levels:\n\nOctober near 2.817–2.824\nBelow the 13- and 48-period EMAs\nDaily pivot ~2.810\nFirst support ~2.770\nFirst resistance ~2.868\n\nStorage (yesterday):\n\n+40 Bcf vs expectations ~+31\nLast year +69 / 5-year average +52\nNext week also set up bullish vs last year (+87) and the 5-year (+74)\n\nNG Stock Watch List Oil & Gas EMP Sector\nMarket Cap 2-10B, High short float over 10% \nBKV | CNX | CRGY | CRK | LB | MTDR | NOG\n\nTimestamps\n0:00 – Open: 9/11 remembrance\n\n0:22 – October contract, EMAs & post-storage bounce\n\n0:50 – Hourly pivot, support & first resistance\n\n1:17 – EIA +40 Bcf recap; next week’s setup\n\n1:58 – ERCOT load, wind recovery, gas share of fuel mix\n\n2:25 – National grid (PJM, MISO, ERCOT)\n\n2:54 – U.S. heat-risk maps through next week\n\n3:54 – Extended models; last triple digits fading\n\n4:38 – 6-10 day & 8-14 day outlooks\n\n5:11 – Europe weather\n\n6:08 – EU / Germany storage\n\n6:41 – Asia temperatures\n\n7:09 – January TTF & JKM surge\n\n7:58 – Asia forecast maps\n\n8:38 – Ras Laffan loadings & Hormuz backlog\n\n9:05 – U.S. LNG terminals\n\n10:23 – Quiet Atlantic / record-late hurricane watch\n\n10:51 – Hazard outlook & Saharan dust\n\n11:31 – Drought monitor\n\n12:03 – E&P watch list\n\n12:27 – Recap & close\n\n#NaturalGas #NG #HenryHub #LNG #ERCOT #Storage #Weather #TTF #JKM #ElkTrading",
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  "published_at": "2026-09-11T14:30:05Z",
  "thumbnail_url": "https://i.ytimg.com/vi/S_6TJH3vULo/hqdefault.jpg",
  "reporting_date": "2026-09-11",
  "analysis_source": "gemini-2.5-flash",
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