Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

September 04, 2026 at 03:17 PM

Completed At

September 04, 2026 at 03:18 PM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

Natural Gas Weekly Recap - October Futures (NGV26 @ 2.951) | 09.04.2026

Data Preview

{
  "title": "Natural Gas Weekly Recap - October Futures (NGV26 @ 2.951) | 09.04.2026",
  "filter": {
    "keywords": [
      "natural gas"
    ],
    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
    ],
    "semantic_filter": true
  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@ElKTradingCoLLC",
    "title": "ELK TRADING Co LLC | Natural Gas Trading",
    "handle": "ElKTradingCoLLC",
    "channel_id": "UCcvcKcyIO_nhZrRubvfxO3w"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "If the natural gas price fills the gap support at 92.70 and stalls, it's a good signal to cover.",
      "The UK NBP natural gas price is dependent on the Strait of Hormuz and the Iran-US shooting war.",
      "Further drought conditions in Washington and Oregon states could lead to a big pull on natural gas due to hydroelectric issues.",
      "Storm systems in the Atlantic could develop if the Saharan Air Layer inhibitor dissipates."
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Natural Gas Futures",
      "EIA Storage Report",
      "LNG Exports",
      "Weather Forecasts (US, Europe, Asia)",
      "El Niño",
      "Power Grid Demand (ERCOT, MISO, SPP, PJM)",
      "Drought Conditions",
      "Tropical Cyclone Activity",
      "Oil & Gas E&P Stocks"
    ],
    "summary": "The speaker discusses the current state of natural gas, noting it is holding around the 13-period exponential moving average and starting to bottom out as fall approaches and LNG exports increase. He reviews EIA storage data, which is historically bullish but neutral against expectations, and highlights tightening market conditions. Weather forecasts indicate extreme heat in the US South and Midwest, with cooler temperatures moving into the Northeast and Canada, while Europe shows volatile temperature swings and Asia remains mild. A strong El Niño is predicted for winter, which could significantly impact natural gas demand.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "Tim Beggins",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "President of Elk Trading Company"
      },
      {
        "name": "Elk Trading Company",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Speaker's company"
      },
      {
        "name": "Natural Gas",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Primary commodity discussed"
      },
      {
        "name": "LNG",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Liquefied Natural Gas"
      },
      {
        "name": "US Gulf Coast",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Location of LNG facilities"
      },
      {
        "name": "El Niño",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Weather phenomenon"
      },
      {
        "name": "EIA",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "U.S. Energy Information Administration"
      },
      {
        "name": "ERCOT",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Electric Reliability Council of Texas"
      },
      {
        "name": "Eduard",
        "type": "other",
        "context": "Likely a weather event impacting ERCOT load"
      },
      {
        "name": "MISO",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Midcontinent Independent System Operator"
      },
      {
        "name": "SPP",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Southwest Power Pool"
      },
      {
        "name": "PJM",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "PJM Interconnection"
      },
      {
        "name": "Texas",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Affected by heat and ERCOT operations"
      },
      {
        "name": "Oklahoma",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Affected by heat"
      },
      {
        "name": "Kansas",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Affected by heat"
      },
      {
        "name": "Missouri",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Affected by heat"
      },
      {
        "name": "St. Louis",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Affected by heat"
      },
      {
        "name": "Chicago",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Affected by heat"
      },
      {
        "name": "Ohio",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Affected by heat"
      },
      {
        "name": "North Carolina",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Affected by heat"
      },
      {
        "name": "Mississippi",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Affected by heat"
      },
      {
        "name": "Washington",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Affected by drought and hydroelectric issues"
      },
      {
        "name": "Oregon",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Affected by drought and hydroelectric issues"
      },
      {
        "name": "Europe",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Discussed for gas storage and temperature anomalies"
      },
      {
        "name": "Spain",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Experiencing heat"
      },
      {
        "name": "France",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Experiencing heat and then cooler temperatures"
      },
      {
        "name": "Eastern Europe",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Experiencing heat and then cooler temperatures"
      },
      {
        "name": "UK",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Experiencing cooler temperatures"
      },
      {
        "name": "Germany",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Experiencing cooler temperatures"
      },
      {
        "name": "Alps",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Experiencing very cold temperatures"
      },
      {
        "name": "Great Britain",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Low gas storage levels"
      },
      {
        "name": "Belgium",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Gas storage doing okay"
      },
      {
        "name": "Netherlands",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Gas storage picking up"
      },
      {
        "name": "Strait of Hormuz",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Geopolitical factor"
      },
      {
        "name": "Iran-US shooting war",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Geopolitical factor"
      },
      {
        "name": "Asia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Discussed for weather and temperatures"
      },
      {
        "name": "India",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Experiencing wet weather and mild temperatures"
      },
      {
        "name": "Southeast Asia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Experiencing wet weather"
      },
      {
        "name": "Eastern China",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Experiencing wet weather and temperature swings"
      },
      {
        "name": "Southern Japan",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Storm systems developing"
      },
      {
        "name": "Philippine Sea",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Storm systems developing"
      },
      {
        "name": "New Delhi",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Experiencing mild temperatures"
      },
      {
        "name": "Tokyo",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Experiencing mild temperatures"
      },
      {
        "name": "Beijing",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Experiencing mild temperatures and temperature swings"
      },
      {
        "name": "Japan",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Experiencing cooler than normal temperatures"
      },
      {
        "name": "Korea",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Experiencing cooler than normal temperatures"
      },
      {
        "name": "Mongolia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Cold air coming from"
      },
      {
        "name": "Eastern Siberia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Cold air coming from"
      },
      {
        "name": "US Gulf",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Water temperatures and storm systems"
      },
      {
        "name": "Caribbean",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Water temperatures and storm systems"
      },
      {
        "name": "Cape Verde Islands",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Storm systems"
      },
      {
        "name": "Sahara",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Source of dust layer"
      },
      {
        "name": "Atlantic",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Ocean basin for storm development"
      },
      {
        "name": "Cancun",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Storm system developing off its coast"
      },
      {
        "name": "Florida",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Storm systems developing off its coast"
      },
      {
        "name": "New Orleans",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Near Plaquemines LNG facility"
      },
      {
        "name": "Plaquemines",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Venture Global LNG facility"
      },
      {
        "name": "Cameron LNG",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "LNG export facility"
      },
      {
        "name": "Freeport LNG",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "LNG export facility"
      },
      {
        "name": "Sabine Pass",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "LNG export facility"
      },
      {
        "name": "Corpus Christi",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "LNG export facility"
      },
      {
        "name": "Golden Pass",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "LNG export facility"
      },
      {
        "name": "BKV",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
      },
      {
        "name": "MTDR",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Matador Resources Co. (Oil & Gas E&P stock)"
      },
      {
        "name": "CNX",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
      },
      {
        "name": "CRK",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
      },
      {
        "name": "CRGY",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
      },
      {
        "name": "NOG",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 0.95,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "October Natural Gas contract is currently trading up 3.1 cents or just over 1% at 2.944.",
        "timestamp": "00:13",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Natural gas is holding around the 13-period exponential moving average, and the RSI has turned to the upside but is slightly overbought.",
        "timestamp": "00:21",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The sell signal on the 13-period and 48-period exponential moving average crossover occurred on February 6th, 2026, indicating a downtrend since then, but it's now starting to bottom out.",
        "timestamp": "00:39",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The market is starting to bottom out due to the approach of fall and increasing LNG exports, as cooler temperatures allow US Gulf Coast LNG facilities to produce more.",
        "timestamp": "00:50",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Today's daily pivot for natural gas is 2.9410, and the market is currently moving sideways.",
        "timestamp": "01:13",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The EIA storage report came in at +30 Bcf, exactly on expectations, which is bullish historically but neutral versus expectations, causing the market to fizz.",
        "timestamp": "02:19",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Current gas storage is 50 Bcf less than last year, and the five-year average surplus is narrowing, now only 5.2% above the five-year average, indicating a structurally tighter market.",
        "timestamp": "02:37",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The Jan vs. October natural gas injection spread is moving down by another 4.5 cents, trading at 95.10, with the last gap support at 92.70 and the RSI in extreme oversold condition.",
        "timestamp": "03:08",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "ERCOT load is down to 83,600 MW due to a weather event (Eduard), with renewables pushing out towards 36,000 MW and natural gas picking up 42.5% of the fuel mix.",
        "timestamp": "03:38",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Extreme heat is centered in MISO, with temperatures expected to be 682 today, and SPP is expected to be around $164, while PJM is at 261.",
        "timestamp": "04:17",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "50 million people are under extreme heat risk today across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, St. Louis, Chicago, Ohio, and North Carolina.",
        "timestamp": "04:43",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The heat risk in the US is expected to decrease to 12 million people by Monday, primarily in the central US, but will remain locked in the Deep South through September 19th.",
        "timestamp": "05:13",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Cooler temperatures are forecast to move into the Interior West, Pacific Northwest, and New England from Canada, while triple-digit temperatures persist in Texas and South Carolina until at least September 19th.",
        "timestamp": "05:50",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature outlooks show above-normal temperatures (a heat dome) from Texas all the way to Florida in the Southeast.",
        "timestamp": "06:40",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Europe is experiencing warm temperatures in Spain and France, pushing into Eastern Europe, but cooler temperatures are expected to move into the UK, France, and Germany by next Wednesday, with very cold temperatures (single digits Celsius) in the Alps.",
        "timestamp": "06:57",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "EU underground gas storage is 65.8% full, which is very low, with some countries like Great Britain (31.3% full) in deep trouble, needing two months to reach adequate levels.",
        "timestamp": "07:56",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "UK NBP natural gas futures are down almost 1% today to 176.39 pence per therm, with the RSI turning lower, dependent on the Strait of Hormuz and the Iran-US situation.",
        "timestamp": "08:28",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Asia is experiencing wet weather in India and Southeast Asia, with storm systems developing near Southern Japan and the Philippine Sea, while temperatures are fairly mild across New Delhi (82°F), Tokyo (71°F), and Beijing (80°F).",
        "timestamp": "08:50",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Temperature anomalies in Asia show warmer temperatures coming into Beijing over the weekend, followed by cooler temperatures from Mongolia and Eastern Siberia by Monday, making Japan, Korea, most of China, and India cooler than normal.",
        "timestamp": "09:28",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "US LNG facilities are operating at high capacity: Cameron LNG at 1.5 out of 1.56 Bcf/d, Freeport LNG at 1.85 Bcf/d, Sabine Pass (Creole Trail) at 1.399 Bcf/d, Corpus Christi at 2.69 out of 2.75 Bcf/d, Venture Global (Plaquemines) running over nameplate capacity, and Golden Pass loading a vessel at over 400,000 MMBtu.",
        "timestamp": "10:24",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the Atlantic for the next 7 days, and Eduard has dissipated, pushing rain into eastern Texas.",
        "timestamp": "11:29",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Water temperatures in the Gulf and Caribbean are very warm, providing plenty of energy if a storm develops, with some thunderstorms developing off Florida and a system off Cancun (Pacific side) developing well.",
        "timestamp": "11:42",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The Sahara Air Layer is acting as an inhibitor for storm development in the Atlantic, with more dust coming off the coast.",
        "timestamp": "12:53",
        "importance": "low"
      },
      {
        "point": "The Interior West of the US is still experiencing severe drought conditions, which could lead to a big pull on natural gas if hydroelectric power is impacted.",
        "timestamp": "13:03",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "NOAA predicts a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during September-November through January 2026-27, with a 69% chance of a historic event exceeding previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.",
        "timestamp": "13:32",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Oil and gas E&P stocks with high short floats (over 10%) have had a good week, with BKV up 7.10% and Matador Resources up 5.04%.",
        "timestamp": "13:54",
        "importance": "low"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [
      {
        "note": "Current trading price",
        "value": "2.944",
        "instrument": "Natural Gas Oct '26 (NGV26)",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Today's daily pivot",
        "value": "2.9410",
        "instrument": "Natural Gas Oct '26 (NGV26)",
        "level_type": "pivot"
      },
      {
        "note": "50% between pivot and first support",
        "value": "2.8570",
        "instrument": "Natural Gas Oct '26 (NGV26)",
        "level_type": "support"
      },
      {
        "note": "Potential run back to this level",
        "value": "2.9980",
        "instrument": "Natural Gas Oct '26 (NGV26)",
        "level_type": "target"
      },
      {
        "note": "Current trading price for the injection spread",
        "value": "0.9510",
        "instrument": "Jan vs. Oct Spread",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Last gap support",
        "value": "0.9270",
        "instrument": "Jan vs. Oct Spread",
        "level_type": "support"
      },
      {
        "note": "Expected price today",
        "value": "682",
        "instrument": "MISO",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Expected price today",
        "value": "164",
        "instrument": "SPP",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Expected price today",
        "value": "261",
        "instrument": "PJM",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Current trading price",
        "value": "176.39",
        "instrument": "UK NBP Natural Gas Futures",
        "level_type": "other"
      }
    ],
    "time_horizon": "medium_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "value": "+30 Bcf",
        "metric": "Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report",
        "period": "week ending 08/28/26",
        "source": "EIA"
      },
      {
        "value": "+50 Bcf",
        "metric": "Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report",
        "period": "last year (08/28/25)",
        "source": "EIA"
      },
      {
        "value": "+37 Bcf",
        "metric": "Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report",
        "period": "five-year average",
        "source": "EIA"
      },
      {
        "value": "3,264 Bcf",
        "metric": "Total US Natural Gas Stocks",
        "period": "current",
        "source": "EIA"
      },
      {
        "value": "3,314 Bcf",
        "metric": "Total US Natural Gas Stocks",
        "period": "last year",
        "source": "EIA"
      },
      {
        "value": "3,054 Bcf",
        "metric": "Total US Natural Gas Stocks",
        "period": "five-year average",
        "source": "EIA"
      },
      {
        "value": "83,600 MW",
        "metric": "System-Wide Demand",
        "period": "current",
        "source": "ERCOT"
      },
      {
        "value": "42.5%",
        "metric": "Fuel Mix - Natural Gas",
        "period": "current",
        "source": "ERCOT"
      },
      {
        "value": "50 million people under extreme heat",
        "metric": "Heat Risk",
        "period": "today",
        "source": "National Weather Service"
      },
      {
        "value": "12 million people under extreme heat",
        "metric": "Heat Risk",
        "period": "Monday",
        "source": "National Weather Service"
      },
      {
        "value": ">90% chance of very strong El Niño",
        "metric": "ENSO Outlook",
        "period": "September-November 2026-27",
        "source": "NOAA CPC"
      },
      {
        "value": "69% chance of historic El Niño event",
        "metric": "ENSO Outlook",
        "period": "October-December 2026",
        "source": "NOAA CPC"
      },
      {
        "value": "65.8%",
        "metric": "EU Underground gas storage fullness",
        "period": "current",
        "source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
      },
      {
        "value": "31.3%",
        "metric": "Great Britain Underground gas storage fullness",
        "period": "current",
        "source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
      },
      {
        "value": "1,504,731",
        "metric": "Cameron LNG (Rec) Operating Capacity",
        "period": "current",
        "source": "Cameron Interstate Pipeline LLC"
      },
      {
        "value": "1,399,994",
        "metric": "Sabine Pass Delivery Location",
        "period": "current",
        "source": "Cherniere Creole Trail Pipeline, L.P."
      },
      {
        "value": "2,690,912",
        "metric": "Corpus Christi Delivery Location",
        "period": "current",
        "source": "Cherniere Corpus Christi Pipeline, L.P."
      },
      {
        "value": "478,562",
        "metric": "Venture Global Calcasieu Pass Delivery",
        "period": "current",
        "source": "TransCameron Pipeline"
      },
      {
        "value": "899,572",
        "metric": "Venture Global Plaquemines LNG Delivery",
        "period": "current",
        "source": "Venture Global Gator Express"
      },
      {
        "value": "763,744",
        "metric": "Natural Gas Pipeline Co. (NGPL) Delivery Location",
        "period": "current",
        "source": "Golden Pass Pipeline"
      }
    ],
    "match_reasoning": "The video provides a detailed analysis of natural gas futures, storage, weather impacts, and LNG export activity, directly addressing the requested topic."
  },
  "video_id": "fQxPWI6mEqE",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQxPWI6mEqE",
  "transcript": "",
  "description": "NG Stock Watch List Oil & Gas EMP Sector\nMarket Cap 2-10B, High short float over 10% \nBKV | CNX | CRGY | CRK | MTDR | NOG",
  "match_reason": "Matched natural gas (mode: any)",
  "published_at": "2026-09-04T14:30:20Z",
  "thumbnail_url": "https://i.ytimg.com/vi/fQxPWI6mEqE/hqdefault.jpg",
  "reporting_date": "2026-09-04",
  "analysis_source": "gemini-2.5-flash",
  "duration_seconds": null,
  "matched_keywords": [
    "natural gas"
  ],
  "transcript_available": false
}