Elk Trading - Natural Gas - Run #1686
Reporting Date: 2026-09-01
Completed
Run Details
- State
- Completed
- Started At
- September 02, 2026 at 04:53 AM
- Completed At
- September 02, 2026 at 04:55 AM
- Duration
- 2 minutes
- Headline
- Daily Natural Gas Report - October Futures (NGV26 @ 2.872) | 09.01.2026
Data Preview
{
"title": "Daily Natural Gas Report - October Futures (NGV26 @ 2.872) | 09.01.2026",
"filter": {
"keywords": [
"natural gas"
],
"match_mode": "any",
"match_fields": [
"title",
"description"
],
"semantic_filter": true
},
"source": "youtube",
"channel": {
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/@ElKTradingCoLLC",
"title": "ELK TRADING Co LLC | Natural Gas Trading",
"handle": "ElKTradingCoLLC",
"channel_id": "UCcvcKcyIO_nhZrRubvfxO3w"
},
"matched": true,
"insights": {
"risks": [
"Tropical Storm Edouard causing lower power load and impacting LNG production.",
"RSI crossing to the downside for natural gas futures.",
"Low European gas storage levels, particularly in Great Britain, could lead to winter supply issues.",
"The ongoing shooting war between Iran and the United States, potentially keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed and impacting global LNG traffic."
],
"topics": [
"Natural Gas Futures",
"Tropical Storms",
"Weather Forecasts",
"Power Grids (ERCOT)",
"LNG Exports",
"European Gas Storage",
"Asian Weather",
"Energy Stocks"
],
"summary": "The natural gas market is experiencing downward pressure due to Tropical Storm Edouard, which is expected to make landfall between Beaumont and Houston, leading to lower ERCOT power load and reduced solar generation. While the upcoming storage report on Thursday is anticipated to be bullish, technical indicators suggest continued pressure today and tomorrow. European gas storage levels remain a concern, particularly in Great Britain, while Asian weather shows cooling trends in some areas. LNG exports from the US Gulf Coast are being moderated due to the storm's path.",
"entities": [
{
"name": "Tim Beggins",
"type": "person",
"context": "President of Elk Trading Company"
},
{
"name": "Elk Trading Company",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Company of the speaker"
},
{
"name": "Natural Gas",
"type": "commodity",
"context": "Primary commodity discussed"
},
{
"name": "Tropical Storm Edouard",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Impacting natural gas prices and power loads"
},
{
"name": "Beaumont",
"type": "region",
"context": "Expected landfall area of Tropical Storm Edouard"
},
{
"name": "Houston",
"type": "region",
"context": "Expected landfall area of Tropical Storm Edouard"
},
{
"name": "ERCOT",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Texas power grid operator"
},
{
"name": "Texas",
"type": "region",
"context": "Affected by Tropical Storm Edouard and heat risk"
},
{
"name": "St. Louis",
"type": "region",
"context": "Affected by extreme heat risk"
},
{
"name": "Chicago",
"type": "region",
"context": "Affected by major heat risk"
},
{
"name": "New England",
"type": "region",
"context": "Experiencing power price volatility and cooler temperatures"
},
{
"name": "Arkansas",
"type": "region",
"context": "Affected by heat risk"
},
{
"name": "New Mexico",
"type": "region",
"context": "Affected by heat risk"
},
{
"name": "Atlanta",
"type": "region",
"context": "Affected by extreme heat risk"
},
{
"name": "Virginia",
"type": "region",
"context": "Affected by heat"
},
{
"name": "Dallas",
"type": "region",
"context": "Affected by heat"
},
{
"name": "Florida",
"type": "region",
"context": "Affected by heat"
},
{
"name": "Europe",
"type": "region",
"context": "Experiencing heatwaves and cooler temperatures"
},
{
"name": "Asia",
"type": "region",
"context": "Experiencing weather changes"
},
{
"name": "Beijing",
"type": "region",
"context": "Experiencing warming temperatures"
},
{
"name": "New Delhi",
"type": "region",
"context": "Experiencing high temperatures"
},
{
"name": "Poland",
"type": "region",
"context": "Experiencing warm temperatures"
},
{
"name": "Greece",
"type": "region",
"context": "Experiencing warm temperatures"
},
{
"name": "Spain",
"type": "region",
"context": "Experiencing warm temperatures"
},
{
"name": "Ireland",
"type": "region",
"context": "Experiencing cooler temperatures"
},
{
"name": "UK",
"type": "region",
"context": "Experiencing cooler temperatures"
},
{
"name": "France",
"type": "region",
"context": "Experiencing cooler temperatures and storage issues"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
"type": "region",
"context": "Experiencing cooler temperatures and storage issues"
},
{
"name": "Belgium",
"type": "region",
"context": "Experiencing gas storage issues"
},
{
"name": "Netherlands",
"type": "region",
"context": "Experiencing gas storage issues"
},
{
"name": "Great Britain",
"type": "region",
"context": "Experiencing gas storage issues"
},
{
"name": "Japan",
"type": "region",
"context": "LNG market discussed"
},
{
"name": "Korea",
"type": "region",
"context": "LNG market discussed"
},
{
"name": "Iran",
"type": "region",
"context": "Involved in a shooting war with the United States"
},
{
"name": "United States",
"type": "region",
"context": "Involved in a shooting war with Iran"
},
{
"name": "Cameron LNG",
"type": "organization",
"context": "LNG export facility"
},
{
"name": "Freeport LNG",
"type": "organization",
"context": "LNG export facility"
},
{
"name": "Sabine Pass",
"type": "region",
"context": "Location of LNG terminals"
},
{
"name": "Corpus Christi",
"type": "region",
"context": "Location of LNG terminals"
},
{
"name": "Venture Global Calcasieu Pass",
"type": "organization",
"context": "LNG export facility"
},
{
"name": "Golden Pass Pipeline",
"type": "organization",
"context": "LNG pipeline"
},
{
"name": "Dolly",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Remnants of a tropical storm"
},
{
"name": "Saharan Air Layer",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Impacting tropical storm development"
},
{
"name": "MTDR",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Energy stock"
},
{
"name": "CNX",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Energy stock"
},
{
"name": "CRGY",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Energy stock"
},
{
"name": "CRK",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Energy stock"
},
{
"name": "NOG",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Energy stock"
},
{
"name": "BKV",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Energy stock"
}
],
"sentiment": "mixed",
"confidence": 0.9,
"key_points": [
{
"point": "Natural gas October 26 (NGV26) is currently trading at 2.857, down 7.8 cents (2.5%).",
"timestamp": "00:14",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Tropical Storm Edouard is about to make landfall between Beaumont and Houston, which will lead to a lower ERCOT power load.",
"timestamp": "00:24",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Solar power generation will struggle today due to overcast conditions and rain from the storm.",
"timestamp": "00:38",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Natural gas will lose some market share in power generation due to the storm.",
"timestamp": "00:45",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Natural gas is holding the 13-period exponential moving average at 2.8520, but the RSI has crossed to the downside, indicating potential pressure today and tomorrow.",
"timestamp": "00:51",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The storage report on Thursday is expected to be bullish versus last year and the five-year average.",
"timestamp": "01:09",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "On the hourly chart, natural gas is in an oversold condition, holding around the first support level (now resistance) at 2.8620, with the second support at 2.79.",
"timestamp": "01:19",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The Jan versus October natural gas spread is up 6 ticks at 1.0140, having closed the first gap at 1.0460, with the second gap at 0.927.",
"timestamp": "01:50",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The RSI for the spread is in extreme oversold conditions.",
"timestamp": "02:07",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "ERCOT's expected load today is just under 86,000 MW due to Tropical Storm Edouard.",
"timestamp": "02:17",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Renewables (wind and solar) are peaking around 11 AM to noon today at about 37,774 MW, with wind still down and solar eclipsing quickly.",
"timestamp": "02:21",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Natural gas currently accounts for 44% of the ERCOT fuel mix, under 29,000 MW.",
"timestamp": "02:41",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "ERCOT batteries charged almost 11,000 MW yesterday morning and discharged over 11,700 MW at night.",
"timestamp": "02:53",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "ERCOT is benefiting from renewables (wind, solar, and batteries), making natural gas more available for LNG and data centers in 2027.",
"timestamp": "03:11",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "ERCOT power prices are expected to be muted today because of Edouard.",
"timestamp": "03:30",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Pain points in power prices are high: PJM at $405, MISO at $515, and SPP at $228.",
"timestamp": "03:36",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "New England experienced volatility this morning, with prices popping to almost $100.",
"timestamp": "03:48",
"importance": "low"
},
{
"point": "The storm system will bring moisture across the US Gulf Coast.",
"timestamp": "03:55",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "12 million people in the US are under extreme heat risk today, and over 115 million are in major heat risk, mainly from Texas back to Chicago and across the East Coast.",
"timestamp": "04:30",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "On Thursday, 56.6 million people will be under extreme heat risk, including Texas, Atlanta, and St. Louis.",
"timestamp": "04:55",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Cooler temperatures are arriving in New England, parts of the Mid-Atlantic, and the Pacific Northwest.",
"timestamp": "05:13",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Triple-digit heat indices are limited to Texas in the late forecast period, with heat coming up the East Coast, but the northern tier (Rockies from Calgary to Denver) is cooling off.",
"timestamp": "05:29",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The 6-10 day temperature outlook shows above-normal temperatures across Texas, up into Nebraska, Arkansas, and New Mexico.",
"timestamp": "06:03",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The 8-14 day temperature outlook shows warm temperatures persisting in Texas through Florida until September 14th.",
"timestamp": "06:12",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Europe is expecting another heatwave around September 4th, continuing for a few days with very warm temperatures on the 5th and 6th from Spain to Greece.",
"timestamp": "06:27",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Cooler temperatures are expected to arrive in Ireland, the UK, France, and Germany around September 11th-13th.",
"timestamp": "06:58",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "EU underground gas storage is over 65% full (334 TWh), needing another 10% to reach 75% fullness.",
"timestamp": "07:16",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Belgium's gas storage is 55% full, France is 16% below last year, Germany is 53% full, and Great Britain is at a low 31% fullness with declining injections.",
"timestamp": "07:31",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The Netherlands' gas storage is 47% full, but injections are increasing.",
"timestamp": "08:11",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The Japan/Korea LNG market for January is impacted by the shooting war between Iran and the United States, with the Strait of Hormuz expected to remain closed for the rest of the year, leading to less than 10% of pre-war traffic.",
"timestamp": "08:26",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Asian weather shows cooler temperatures across parts of India, peaking in New Delhi today, then getting cooler with more rain; Eastern China is cool, with warm temperatures in the Beijing capital city area and Japan, before cooler weather arrives on September 10th.",
"timestamp": "08:51",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Cameron LNG is pulling back a little, running at 1.46 BCF out of 1.56 BCF capacity, possibly due to the storm.",
"timestamp": "10:02",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Freeport LNG was running over 2 BCF yesterday.",
"timestamp": "10:11",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Corpus Christi, which is out of the storm's path, is running hot at 2.63 BCF out of 2.75 BCF capacity.",
"timestamp": "10:28",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Venture Global Calcasieu Pass has expansion capacity, and Plaquemines is running at nameplate capacity.",
"timestamp": "10:44",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Golden Pass Pipeline is in the path of the storm, moderating LNG production, running at 367,000 out of 800,000-850,000 for train 1 capacity.",
"timestamp": "10:55",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Tropical Storm Edouard is off the coast of Louisiana, moving west-northwest at 7 knots (8 mph), with maximum sustained winds of 35 knots (40 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 1003 mb.",
"timestamp": "11:13",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are 86 degrees.",
"timestamp": "11:37",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "There is no significant tropical activity in the Atlantic through September 15th, and the Saharan Air Layer dust is causing storms to fizzle out.",
"timestamp": "12:29",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Energy stocks in the Oil & Gas E&P sector (between $2-10 billion market cap with over 10% short float) are showing a 'sea of green' today, as hedge funds are picking up energy stocks globally.",
"timestamp": "12:58",
"importance": "high"
}
],
"trade_ideas": [],
"price_levels": [
{
"note": "Current trading price",
"value": "2.857",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NGV26)",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "13-period exponential moving average",
"value": "2.8520",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NGV26)",
"level_type": "support"
},
{
"note": "First support level on hourly chart, now resistance",
"value": "2.8620",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NGV26)",
"level_type": "resistance"
},
{
"note": "Second support level on hourly chart",
"value": "2.79",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NGV26)",
"level_type": "support"
},
{
"note": "Daily pivot",
"value": "2.905",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NGV26)",
"level_type": "pivot"
},
{
"note": "Current trading price",
"value": "1.0140",
"instrument": "Jan vs Oct natural gas spread",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "First gap in uptrend (closed)",
"value": "1.0460",
"instrument": "Jan vs Oct natural gas spread",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Second gap in uptrend",
"value": "0.927",
"instrument": "Jan vs Oct natural gas spread",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "High pain point",
"value": "405",
"instrument": "PJM Locational Marginal Price",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "High pain point",
"value": "515",
"instrument": "MISO Locational Marginal Price",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "High pain point",
"value": "228",
"instrument": "SPP Locational Marginal Price",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "High during volatility",
"value": "100",
"instrument": "New England Locational Marginal Price",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Current delivery (BCF)",
"value": "1.46",
"instrument": "Cameron LNG",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Design capacity (BCF)",
"value": "1.56",
"instrument": "Cameron LNG",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Current delivery (BCF)",
"value": "2.63",
"instrument": "Corpus Christi LNG",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Design capacity (BCF)",
"value": "2.75",
"instrument": "Corpus Christi LNG",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Current operating capacity",
"value": "367,000",
"instrument": "Golden Pass Pipeline Train 1",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Design capacity",
"value": "800,000-850,000",
"instrument": "Golden Pass Pipeline Train 1",
"level_type": "other"
}
],
"time_horizon": "short_term",
"matches_filter": true,
"data_references": [
{
"value": "2.857",
"metric": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NGV26) price",
"source": "Barchart"
},
{
"value": "2.8520",
"metric": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NGV26) 13-period exponential moving average",
"source": "Barchart"
},
{
"value": "crossed to the downside",
"metric": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NGV26) RSI",
"source": "Barchart"
},
{
"value": "expected to be bullish vs last year and 5-year average",
"metric": "Natural Gas Storage Report",
"period": "upcoming Thursday",
"source": "EIA"
},
{
"value": "oversold condition",
"metric": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NGV26) hourly chart RSI",
"source": "Barchart"
},
{
"value": "2.905",
"metric": "Natural Gas Oct 26 (NGV26) daily pivot",
"source": "Barchart"
},
{
"value": "1.0140",
"metric": "Jan vs Oct natural gas spread",
"source": "TradingView"
},
{
"value": "1.0460 (closed)",
"metric": "Jan vs Oct natural gas spread first gap",
"source": "TradingView"
},
{
"value": "0.927",
"metric": "Jan vs Oct natural gas spread second gap",
"source": "TradingView"
},
{
"value": "extreme oversold conditions",
"metric": "Jan vs Oct natural gas spread RSI",
"source": "TradingView"
},
{
"value": "just under 86,000 MW",
"metric": "System-Wide Demand",
"period": "today",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "37,774 MW",
"metric": "Combined Wind and Solar peaking",
"period": "11 AM to noon today",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "44% (under 29,000 MW)",
"metric": "Natural Gas Fuel Mix",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "almost 11,000 MW",
"metric": "Energy Storage Resources charging",
"period": "yesterday morning",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "over 11,700 MW",
"metric": "Energy Storage Resources discharging",
"period": "yesterday night",
"source": "ERCOT"
},
{
"value": "405",
"metric": "PJM price",
"source": "Locational Marginal Prices"
},
{
"value": "515",
"metric": "MISO price",
"source": "Locational Marginal Prices"
},
{
"value": "228",
"metric": "SPP price",
"source": "Locational Marginal Prices"
},
{
"value": "almost 100",
"metric": "New England price",
"source": "Locational Marginal Prices"
},
{
"value": "12 million people",
"metric": "Population in extreme heat risk",
"period": "today",
"source": "NWS HeatRisk"
},
{
"value": "over 115 million people",
"metric": "Population in major heat risk",
"period": "today",
"source": "NWS HeatRisk"
},
{
"value": "56.6 million people",
"metric": "Population in extreme heat risk",
"period": "Thursday",
"source": "NWS HeatRisk"
},
{
"value": "heatwave",
"metric": "2m Temperature Anomaly",
"period": "Europe, Sept 4th-6th",
"source": "ECMWF HRES"
},
{
"value": "cooler temperatures",
"metric": "2m Temperature Anomaly",
"period": "Europe, Sept 11th-13th",
"source": "ECMWF HRES"
},
{
"value": "65.1% (334 TWh)",
"metric": "EU Underground Gas Storage Fullness",
"source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
},
{
"value": "55% full",
"metric": "Belgium Underground Gas Storage Fullness",
"source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
},
{
"value": "16% below last year",
"metric": "France Underground Gas Storage Fullness",
"source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
},
{
"value": "53% full",
"metric": "Germany Underground Gas Storage Fullness",
"source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
},
{
"value": "31% full",
"metric": "Great Britain Underground Gas Storage Fullness",
"source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
},
{
"value": "47% full",
"metric": "Netherlands Underground Gas Storage Fullness",
"source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
},
{
"value": "cooler temperatures across parts of India, peaking in New Delhi",
"metric": "2m Temperature Anomaly",
"period": "Asia, today",
"source": "ECMWF HRES"
},
{
"value": "cooler weather arrives",
"metric": "2m Temperature Anomaly",
"period": "Asia, Sept 10th",
"source": "ECMWF HRES"
},
{
"value": "1.46 BCF (out of 1.56 BCF capacity)",
"metric": "Cameron LNG delivery",
"source": "Sempra LNG & Midstream"
},
{
"value": "over 2 BCF yesterday",
"metric": "Freeport LNG total scheduled quantity",
"source": "PipeFix"
},
{
"value": "2.63 BCF (out of 2.75 BCF capacity)",
"metric": "Corpus Christi delivery",
"source": "Cheniere Corpus Christi Pipeline"
},
{
"value": "367,000 (out of 800,000-850,000)",
"metric": "Train 1 operating capacity",
"source": "Golden Pass Pipeline"
},
{
"value": "35 knots (40 mph)",
"metric": "Tropical Storm Edouard maximum sustained winds",
"source": "National Hurricane Center"
},
{
"value": "1003 mb",
"metric": "Tropical Storm Edouard minimum central pressure",
"source": "National Hurricane Center"
},
{
"value": "west-northwest at 7 knots (8 mph)",
"metric": "Tropical Storm Edouard movement",
"source": "National Hurricane Center"
},
{
"value": "86 degrees",
"metric": "Water Temperatures in Gulf of Mexico",
"source": "Klystron 9"
},
{
"value": "no significant tropical activity in Atlantic",
"metric": "Global Tropics Hazards Outlook",
"period": "Week 2 & 3 (Sept 2-15)",
"source": "Climate Prediction Center"
},
{
"value": "+0.73%",
"metric": "Stock performance (MTDR)",
"source": "Oil & Gas E&P Sector"
}
],
"match_reasoning": "The video substantively discusses natural gas prices, weather impacts on energy, LNG exports, and global energy markets, all of which are relevant to the requested topic of natural gas."
},
"video_id": "rO6ywy1w2eA",
"video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rO6ywy1w2eA",
"transcript": "Good morning, natural gas. It's Tuesday, September the 1st, 2026. I'm Tim Beggins, President of Elk Trading Company. And for the spot October natural gas contract, we're down. We're currently trading at 2.8570, down 7.8 cents, almost two, over 2.5% at this stage. What's going on? Well, we got a tropical storm, Edouard, and it's about to make landfall between Beaumont and Houston, and then head right to my house. So, here we are. We're on some pressure now because ERCOT's going to have a lower power load, even though solar is going to be a little bit struggling today because of the overcastness and the rain, but natural gas is also going to lose some market share as well. Wind remains somewhat diminished. As you can see, we've came down right to the 13-period exponential moving average, which came in at 2.8520. Our low today, one tick below that right now. Still holding the up trend line, but the RSI has crossed to the downside. So, we may see some pressure today, we may see some pressure tomorrow, but the storage report on Thursday is expected to be bullish versus last year and the five-year average. Let's take a look at the hourly chart. And as you can see right now, we are currently in an oversold condition on the hourly chart. We're holding at just at around the first support level, which is now resistance here at 2.8620. We're currently holding above that second support here is 2.79, but again, the RSI is in oversold conditions. We're well below the daily pivot at 2.905. So, looks like we're remaining under pressure right now because of this tropical storm. Let's take a look at the front to back spreads. This is Jan versus October. It's actually up just six ticks here this morning at 1.0140 here. We've closed that first gap here, which was at 1.0460. Our second gap in this uptrend, 92.7 cents. So, let's see if we can possibly get there. The RSI though is in extreme oversold conditions at this time. Let's take a look at the ERCOT grid, and this is going to be lower today because we've got Edouard. And our expected load today is just under 86,000 megawatts. As you can see, renewables are peaking out here around 11:00 to noon today at about 37,774 megawatts. That's lower because, yes, wind is actually still down, but solar really eclipses quickly here as Edouard makes landfall. Right now, currently, natural gas has got 44% of the fuel mix here. That is only under 29,000 megawatts. From yesterday, I wanted to take a look at this little graph here. In ERCOT, we've got a lot of batteries, and yesterday, they were charging up almost 11,000 megawatts here in the morning, around 9:50 AM, and then discharging at night. That's right, at around 8:00 at night, over 11,700 megawatts. So, just to tell you here, ERCOT is benefiting from renewables. That includes wind, solar, and batteries. Natural gas is more available now for LNG and for power to data centers coming up in 2027. Let's take a look at the ERCOT, uh, excuse me, the power grid across the United States. As you can see, ERCOT is expected to be fairly muted today because of Edouard. And right now, though, the pain points here are PJM, as high as 405, behind me, MISO, 515, and then over here, SPP, all the way up at $228. We've already seen some volatility in New England this morning, popping here as high as almost $100. So, a little bit of volatility there, but the storm system is going to bring moisture across the US Gulf Coast. Let's take a look at the national, uh, excuse me, the global grid here, because this is important for our weather out in Asia. We are seeing some wet weather, monsoon-like temperatures out here. Beijing is expected to warm up a little bit, and then New Delhi here is going to be pushing out as high right now as 94 degrees today. That looks like it's going to be that peak here for at least the next few days. Let's turn to the US, and here is the weather here. This is the extreme weather, and as you can see, we're looking at 12 million people in extreme heat risk here, over 115 million people in major heat risk, mainly from Texas back to Chicago and across the East Coast, with the exception of New England. This continues into tomorrow here. Now the extremes get even higher because we're including St. Louis and parts of Chicago. And there it is, 56.6 million people on Thursday under extreme heat risk. That includes Texas, all the way back to Atlanta and St. Louis. Continues on Friday, and then Saturday starts to ease up a little bit, still centered around St. Louis and Arkansas, and then moderates here as we get into next week because cooler temperatures, as you can see, are arriving in New England and parts of the Mid-Atlantic, as well as the Pacific Northwest. Let's take a look at the the model runs here, a little further out here. As you can see, again, the triple-digit heat indices are limited toward Texas as we get late in the forecast period. We do get some heat coming up the East Coast, but then right at the end here, we start to see it's really mainly still locked in from Virginia back to Dallas and into Florida. So, there is still some warmth here, but the northern tier starting to cool off. Look at these cooler temperatures starting to come in into the Rockies here from Calgary all the way back down toward, uh, Denver. So, keep an eye on it, seasons are about to change. 6-10 day outlook, it is above normal across, uh, Texas here, all the way back up into Nebraska, over to Arkansas and New Mexico. 8-14 day temperature starts to moderate, pushes it back down, kind of pushes it into the south. Again, Texas through Florida stays warm here through September the 14th. Here is Europe. Good news here coming up here. It is warm coming up. That's unfortunate here, yet another heatwave coming in right around the 4th of September here, and then that continues for a few days. Really warm temperatures on the 5th, 6th is really hot across from Spain all the way back over to Greece. Then that pushes back toward Greece here as we get further in the forecast period here. Still some warm temperatures running right back in on the 10th. This is Spain all the way back over into Poland. So, very, very warm temperatures there, but look what comes in on the 11th. That's right, cooler temperatures coming into Ireland, the UK, and of course, uh, France, and of course, Germany. Look at the cool temperatures on the 13th. This is fantastic news for France. They could use it right now. And let's take a look at storage across the EU, over 65% full. They've got two months to go. That's right. They've got 10% to go if they're going to get to 75%. Good luck with that. They'll need a big push here. And again, our problems here, Belgium, still pushing hard here trying to inject as much as they can, but they're only at 55% full. And let's take a look at France. Same kind of problem here. They're still 16% below last year, but they are still at least improving as far as injections are concerned. How about Germany, the biggest consumer? 53%. This is not good news. Injections have increased over the last week, but they are still well below where they were last year. And how about Great Britain? Unfortunately, this is really terrible news. 31% and injections are actually declining. What is going on? I don't understand it either. And here's the Netherlands at 47% full. Still, injections though are increasing. So, at least some people are waking up. Great Britain. Oh, hold on. And here is the Japan Korea market for January. Again, with the shooting war continuing between Iran and the United States, looks like the Strait of Hormuz is going to be remain closed through the rest of this year. Now, are tankers making it through? Yes, they're turning off their transponders, so we can't see what's going on. But this means that traffic is going to be less than 10% of pre-war levels. Let's take a look at Asia, and there's some good news there as well. It is cooler temperatures across parts of India here. We're peaking out in New Delhi today, and it ends getting cooler with some more rain coming through the system here. Eastern China is cool. Right now, the warm temperatures are mainly in the Beijing capital city area here. And as you can see, there's still some warm temperatures pushing into Japan, but then cooler weather starts to arrive on the 10th of September, and through the end of the forecast period, we get a little bit of warmth back in for the Shanghai back up to Beijing. Let's take a look at LNG. This is the US. Edouard is out here in the Gulf of America/Mexico. And here is Sabine Pass. We've got three vessels right now mooring at Sabine Pass. That's good news there. They're going to ride it out. There is nothing over at, uh, Freeport down here. And right now, as you can see, the storm system is expected to come on shore between basically Beaumont here and, of course, Houston here. So, it is moving in this general direction, heading to my house right over here. And let's take a look at the US LNG. Cameron is pulling back a little bit here, 1.46 out of 1.56, possibly because of the storm system. And here's Freeport. And it was running about 2 BCF, a little bit over 2 BCF yesterday. Good news there. And let's take a look at Sabine Pass. This is Creole Trail that feeds Sabine Pass. There is still some open capacity there. Again, it is one of the pipelines that feeds Sabine Pass. And here is Corpus Christi, which is out of the path of Edouard, and it is running hot. It is running 2.63 out of 2.75. That's great news there. How about Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass? Well, still the same for that. It is still has some expansion capacity there. And Plaquemines, which is completely out of the path of this storm as well, is running at nameplate capacity. That's right, it's fantastic news there. Unfortunately, Golden Pass, no. Golden Pass is running 367,000, 368,000 out of 800 to 850,000 for train one capacity. It is in the path of this storm, so they are moderating production of LNG at this stage. Let's take a look at the storm system, and that's Edouard right here. It is off the coast of Louisiana. It is moving at 35 knots or 40 miles an hour. Pressure is down to 1003 millibars. That's good strength there. It is moving to the northwest and west at, uh, basically 8 miles per hour. So, it's a slow-moving storm, but it is heading into the Beaumont/Houston area. And the water temperatures here, 86 degrees in the Gulf of America/Mexico. Very, very warm. And there she is on the satellite, or he is on the satellite. There is right here Houston, this Galveston Bay, this is, uh, Sabine, and this is Calcasieu Pass. And as you can see, the storm system is about here, and it is generally moving in this west-northwest direction. And let's take a look at the bigger picture. Nothing out there right now. Oops. We're loading up again. There's the remnants of Dolly. Sorry about this. And, of course, let's pause that for a second. There is some activity here in the Mid-Atlantic. Unfortunately, though, it is well below 10 degrees north. That means it will not be able to be a threat to the United States anytime soon. We'll keep a careful eye on this system back here, but generally speaking, it's just Edouard. And let's take a look at the tropical hazards. As you can see, nothing on the scope here through September the 15th for the Atlantic season. And here is partially why. The Saharan Air Layer, the dust is still continuing to come off the continent, and it is causing some, you know, storms to just kind of fizzle out, unfortunately. And here is the stocks in the oil and gas E&P sectors. Uh, this stocks between 2 and 10 billion dollars have a high short float, over 10%, and it's a sea of green today. Yes, that's right, because hedge funds are picking up energy stocks globally. And behind me, Matador up 0.73%. Right now, this is good news because energy stocks have been really on the decline for a long period of time. And again, recapping here for the spot October contract, we're currently trading at 2.8720, down 6.3 cents or 2.15%. And we're holding above the 13-period exponential moving average, but the RSI is lower right now. So, let us know your thoughts in the comment section below. Please hit that like and subscribe button. Thanks for listening. We'll see you tomorrow.",
"description": "Tim Beggans covers the October contract selloff as Tropical Storm Edward approaches landfall between Beaumont and Houston, lower ERCOT load, battery charge/discharge on the Texas grid, national power-price volatility, the Jan–Oct spread, lingering U.S. heat into mid-September, Europe/Asia weather and storage, Hormuz tanker traffic, U.S. LNG feedgas around the storm track, and the E&P watch list.\nContract / levels:\n\nOctober near 2.857–2.872, down ~6–8¢\nTesting the 13-period EMA ~2.852\nDaily pivot ~2.905\nFirst support now resistance ~2.862\nSecond support ~2.790\n\nStorage (Thursday):\n\nExpected bullish vs last year and the 5-year average\n\nNG Stock Watch List Oil & Gas EMP Sector\nMarket Cap 2-10B, short float over 10% \nBKV | CNX | CRGY | CRK | MTDR | NOG\n\nTimestamps\n0:00 – Open: October selloff & Tropical Storm Edward\n0:55 – Daily chart, 13-period EMA & uptrend\n1:19 – Hourly chart, oversold RSI, pivot & support\n1:50 – Jan vs October spread\n2:14 – ERCOT load, solar/wind & gas share with Edward\n2:51 – ERCOT batteries charging/discharging\n3:27 – National grid prices (PJM, SPP, ISO-NE)\n4:03 – Global/Asia temperatures\n4:28 – U.S. heat-risk maps through next week\n5:27 – Extended models & 6-10 / 8-14 day outlooks\n6:26 – Europe weather / next heat wave then cool-down\n7:18 – EU storage (Belgium, France, Germany, UK, Netherlands)\n8:25 – JKM & Strait of Hormuz traffic\n8:51 – Asia forecast\n9:27 – Edward track vs Sabine / Freeport / Houston\n10:06 – U.S. LNG terminals (Cameron through Golden Pass)\n11:15 – Edward details, SSTs, satellite\n12:04 – Dolly remnants, Mid-Atlantic, hazard outlook\n12:41 – Saharan air layer\n12:53 – E&P stock watch list\n13:19 – Recap & close\n\n#NaturalGas #NG #HenryHub #LNG #ERCOT #Storage #Weather #TropicalStormEdward #TTF #JKM #ElkTrading",
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"published_at": "2026-09-01T14:30:20Z",
"thumbnail_url": "https://i.ytimg.com/vi/rO6ywy1w2eA/hqdefault.jpg",
"reporting_date": "2026-09-01",
"analysis_source": "gemini-2.5-flash",
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