Soybeans COT Report: Week ending January 6, 2026

Executive summary

For the week ending January 6, 2026, Soybeans futures saw a second consecutive week of significant long liquidation by Managed Money. This speculative selling coincided with a price dip early in the reporting period. Commercials (Producers/Merchants) took the other side of this flow, using the price weakness to cover a substantial portion of their short hedges. Despite the recent selling, speculators remain net long, while commercials maintain their large, structural net short position, albeit at the lowest level in the past three weeks. Open interest saw a modest rebound after a sharp drop in the prior period, suggesting some new activity is entering the market post-holidays.

Positioning

• Managed Money (Funds): Net long position fell to +65,807 contracts (123,376 long vs 57,569 short). This is a significant reduction from +90,008 contracts the prior week and is less than half the +154,974 contract net long position from two weeks ago.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): Net short position shrank to -218,434 contracts (218,570 long vs 437,004 short). This is the smallest net short position in the provided data, down from -232,935 last week and -292,227 two weeks prior.
• Swap Dealers: Increased their net long position to +128,119 contracts, up from +121,046 the week before. They continue to absorb speculative selling.

Flows and week-over-week changes

• Managed Money was the most active seller. They liquidated -20,604 long contracts while simultaneously adding +3,597 new shorts. This bearish flow resulted in a net reduction of their position by 24,201 contracts.
• Producers/Merchants were significant net buyers, driven by short-covering. They covered -13,773 short contracts while adding a marginal +728 longs, for a net position change of +14,501 contracts.
• Swap Dealers showed bullish conviction, adding +3,129 long contracts and reducing their shorts by -3,944 contracts. This increased their net long exposure by 7,073 contracts.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic divergence between commercials and speculators was on full display this week. - Speculators (Managed Money) drove prices lower by aggressively liquidating their bullish bets. The reduction of over 89,000 net long contracts over the past two reporting periods indicates a major unwind of a previously crowded trade. - Commercials (Producers) acted as a stabilizing force, stepping in to buy the dip. Their short-covering suggests they perceive current price levels as more attractive for reducing hedges. Their outright short position of 437,004 contracts remains immense, however, reflecting a continued large-scale hedging need from the producer side.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest (OI): Total open interest rose by a modest +5,830 contracts to 782,429. This follows a massive 68,981 contract drop in the prior week, which was likely related to year-end position squaring. The small rebound suggests the market is beginning to rebuild liquidity.
• Participation: Producer/Merchants remain the dominant force, accounting for 83.8% of all gross positions. Managed Money accounts for 35.9%.
• Concentration: The market shows moderate concentration on the short side. The largest 4 traders hold 14.0% of the total short open interest, and the largest 8 traders hold 22.5%.

Price context

The price series provides critical context for these positioning changes. The reporting period covers the week from Wednesday, December 31, 2025, to Tuesday, January 6, 2026. - During this time, the front-month contract experienced a sharp sell-off, falling from a close of 1045.0 on Dec 31 to a low of 1022.0 on Jan 2. - The market then recovered through the end of the reporting period, closing at 1048.0 on Jan 6. - The heavy net selling from Managed Money (-24,201 contracts) aligns perfectly with the sharp price drop early in the week. The subsequent price recovery suggests that commercial short-covering provided support and absorbed the speculative selling pressure.

Risks and watchpoints

• Continued Speculative Unwind: While Managed Money has significantly reduced its net long, the position is still substantial at +65,807 contracts. If this liquidation trend continues, it could exert further downward pressure on prices.
• Commercial Floor: Producers have been active buyers on price weakness for two consecutive weeks. Their willingness to continue covering shorts at or below current levels will be a key factor in establishing a potential price floor.
• Swap Dealer Absorption: Swap Dealers have been absorbing speculative selling. A slowdown in their buying could remove a key pillar of support for the market.
• Open Interest Growth: Watch for a more meaningful increase in open interest. A rise in OI alongside rising prices would suggest new buying is entering the market, while a rise in OI with falling prices would imply new short-selling.