Soybeans: Commitments of Traders - Week Ending January 5, 2026

Executive summary

This report, covering the two-week holiday period from December 23, 2025, to January 5, 2026, reveals a significant market liquidation event in Soybeans. Open interest plummeted by over 100,000 contracts, driven by aggressive long liquidation from Managed Money speculators. This selling coincided with a sharp drop in prices during the period. In response, Commercial participants (Producers/Merchants) engaged in substantial short-covering, reducing their net-short exposure and likely providing some support to prices off their lows. The primary theme is a major reduction in speculative bullish positioning, shifting the market landscape considerably.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

Net positions saw a dramatic convergence, with speculators becoming much less bullish and commercials much less bearish.

• Managed Money: The net long position collapsed by over 40%, falling from +154,974 contracts to +90,008 contracts. This is a significant reduction in bullish conviction.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): This group's net short position shrank considerably, moving from -292,227 contracts to -232,935 contracts. This indicates a reduced appetite for hedging at current price levels.
• Swap Dealers: Remained staunchly net long, with their position inching higher from +116,966 to +121,046 contracts.

Flows and week-over-week changes

The flows over the two-week reporting period were substantial and highlight the divergence between speculative and commercial players.

• Managed Money: This category was the primary driver of the sell-off. They liquidated a massive 52,020 long contracts while simultaneously adding 12,946 new short positions. This two-pronged bearish action underscores a significant shift in sentiment.
• Producer/Merchant: Commercials acted as buyers on the break. They covered an enormous 79,183 short contracts, far outweighing the liquidation of 19,891 long contracts. This aggressive short-covering points to a perception of value at lower price levels.
• Swap Dealers: Activity was muted in comparison, with a small addition of 317 longs and the covering of 3,763 shorts.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic dynamic of speculators selling to commercials was on full display. The speculative community (Managed Money) capitulated on a significant portion of its bullish bets, creating heavy selling pressure. This pressure was absorbed by the commercial hedgers, who used the price decline as an opportunity to buy back their short hedges at more favorable levels. This behavior suggests that while speculators were fleeing the market, core physical market participants saw the price drop as overextended.

Open interest and participation

The market saw a major exodus of participants, signaling a classic long-liquidation event.

• Open Interest: Total open interest fell sharply from 880,590 to 776,599 contracts, a decline of 103,991 contracts over the two weeks. A drop of this magnitude alongside falling prices confirms that the move was driven by position closures rather than new shorts entering the market.
• Participation: Managed Money's share of total longs fell from 22.3% to 18.5%. Conversely, the Producer/Merchant share of the short side also decreased from 60.2% to 58.0%, reflecting their large-scale short-covering.
• Concentration: Concentration among the largest traders on the short side eased slightly. The top 4 largest net short traders now account for 14.7% of open interest, down from 16.0% two weeks prior. This is consistent with the broad-based commercial short covering.

Price context

The provided price series aligns perfectly with the positioning changes. The reporting period covers market action from December 24, 2025, to January 5, 2026.

• The front-month contract fell from a close of 1050.75 on December 23 to 1035.75 on January 5.
• A particularly sharp drop occurred between December 31 (1045.0) and January 2 (1022.0).
• The massive wave of selling from Managed Money (-52,020 longs) is the clear driver behind this price weakness. The significant commercial short-covering likely helped establish the low on January 2 and contributed to the modest rebound into the close of the reporting period.

Risks and watchpoints

• Speculative Positioning Risk: While significantly reduced, the Managed Money net long position of +90,008 contracts is still sizable. Further bearish news could trigger another wave of liquidation from these remaining longs.
• Commercial Support: The aggressive short-covering by commercials suggests a potential value area for physical market participants. Their behavior should be monitored closely on any further price weakness to see if they continue to provide a floor for the market.
• Open Interest as a Guide: A key watchpoint will be whether open interest can stabilize and begin to build again. A recovery in open interest alongside rising prices would signal that new buying is entering the market, which would be a much stronger bullish signal than the current bounce driven by short-covering.