Silver Physical Market Brief — 2026-10-09

Executive summary

Physical delivery activity for COMEX silver futures (SI) ground to a virtual halt on October 9, 2026, with only 1 contract issued and stopped, following a strong two-day burst of 688 contracts on October 7–8. This brings the Month-to-Date (MTD) October 2026 delivery volume to 3,126 contracts. The sudden drop in daily delivery volume aligns with a settlement price rebound back above $60.67/oz. In the paper market, CFTC COT positioning shows managed money maintaining a modest net long stance, while commercial producers and merchants hold a sizeable net short position amid total open interest of 105,130 contracts.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

• Current Day (2026-10-09): A total of 1 contract was issued and stopped for the OCTOBER 2026 COMEX 5000 SILVER FUTURES contract at a settlement price of $60.67 USD (delivery date: 2026-10-13).
• MTD Cumulative Volume: Month-to-date delivery intentions reached 3,126 contracts for the 5,000-oz contract.
• Recent Trend & Velocity:
  • Delivery notifications collapsed from 358 contracts on 2026-10-08 and 330 contracts on 2026-10-07 down to a single contract today.
  • Prior to this week's surge, daily intentions ranged between 70 and 139 contracts during early October (139 on 2026-10-02, 125 on 2026-10-05, and 114 on 2026-10-06).
  • October delivery uptake has been concentrated in the standard 5,000 oz contract, with the Micro Silver contract showing quiet activity after a burst of 745 contracts stopped on September 29.
  • Total cumulative deliveries for October (3,126 contracts) remain below the heavy turnover seen in the September cycle, which reached 6,773 contracts by month-end.

Warehouse stocks

CME does not publish warehouse stocks for this metal in the provided feed data (stocks reported as null). As a result, eligible and registered stock changes cannot be verified against current delivery stops.

COT cross-check

The latest CFTC positioning report as of 2026-10-09 reveals: * Open Interest: 105,130 contracts. * Managed Money: 16,457 longs vs. 8,929 shorts (net long +7,528 contracts). * Producer/Merchant: 4,411 longs vs. 20,664 shorts (net short -16,253 contracts).

Positioning vs. Physical Divergence: Managed money holds a net long posture that is relatively restrained compared to total open interest (~7.2% net long of open interest), reflecting cautious speculative conviction following the price drop from late-August and September highs above $68–$69/oz to the current ~$60.67/oz range. Meanwhile, the heavy burst of physical deliveries seen earlier in the week (688 contracts across Oct 7–8) indicates that commercial participants actively used lower price levels around $59.00–$59.90 to satisfy and take delivery, even as speculative participation remains subdued.

Risks and watchpoints

• Physical Delivery Exhaustion: The abrupt collapse to 1 delivery contract signals that the primary delivery cycle for the October active window may be tapering off, shifting liquidity back toward forward active months.
• Price Floor Testing: Silver settlement prices stabilized at $60.67 USD after touching a low of $59.064 USD on October 8. If physical demand dries up following this delivery slowdown, silver may retest the sub-$60 level.
• Commercial Hedging Overhead: Heavy producer/merchant net short positioning (20,664 contracts against only 4,411 longs) could create resistance on rallies back toward the mid-$60s.
• Data Blindspot: Lack of warehouse stock transparency prevents monitoring whether stopped deliveries are leaving COMEX vaults or merely shifting warrants between clearing members.