Silver Physical Market Brief — October 8, 2026

Executive summary

• Physical delivery surge: Daily delivery notices for COMEX silver climbed to 358 contracts on October 8, extending a sharp acceleration that began on October 7 (330 contracts) and pushing month-to-date (MTD) deliveries to 3,125 contracts.
• Contract focus: Today's activity was entirely concentrated in the OCTOBER 2026 COMEX 5000 Silver Futures contract, settling at $59.064/oz.
• Physical vs. paper divergence: Settlement prices have slid from above $61/oz in early October to $59.064/oz, yet physical delivery demand has accelerated rather than dissipated.
• Speculative backdrop: The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report shows managed money holding a moderate net long position of 7,614 contracts amid relatively subdued total open interest (107,047 contracts), indicating physical absorption is occurring without speculative froth.

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Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

Delivery notices picked up significant momentum over the past 48 hours for the October delivery cycle.

Today's Activity (October 8, 2026)

• Total Issued / Stopped: 358 contracts (1,790,000 troy ounces equivalent)
• Contract: OCTOBER 2026 COMEX 5000 SILVER FUTURES (SI)
• Settlement Price: $59.064 USD
• Intent Date: October 8, 2026 (Delivery Date: October 12, 2026)
• Month-to-Date (MTD) Cumulative: 3,125 contracts

Recent Trend Context

After opening October with moderate volumes averaging 110–140 contracts per session, delivery notices expanded materially over the last two sessions: - October 8: 358 contracts (MTD: 3,125) | Settlement: $59.064 - October 7: 330 contracts (MTD: 2,767) | Settlement: $59.899 - October 6: 114 contracts (MTD: 2,437) | Settlement: $61.168 - October 5: 125 contracts (MTD: 2,323) | Settlement: $60.869 - October 2: 139 contracts (MTD: 2,198) | Settlement: $59.977 - October 1: 70 contracts (65 standard, 5 micro) (MTD: 2,059) | Settlement: $60.725

The steady run-rate over the first week of October followed a massive September delivery cycle that saw over 6,700 total standard contract notices. The back-to-back 300+ contract sessions on October 7 and 8 signal persistent appetite to take physical delivery even as front-month pricing dropped below $60.00/oz.

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Warehouse stocks

CME does not publish warehouse stocks for this metal in the current data feed.

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COT cross-check

As of the October 2, 2026 CFTC reporting date: - Total Open Interest: 107,047 contracts - Managed Money Long: 16,886 contracts - Managed Money Short: 9,272 contracts (Net Long: 7,614 contracts) - Commercial Producer/Merchant Long: 5,032 contracts - Commercial Producer/Merchant Short: 21,544 contracts (Net Short: -16,512 contracts)

Divergence Analysis: Speculative positioning is only moderately net long (managed money net long represents roughly 7.1% of total open interest), reflecting cautious paper participation. Conversely, commercial producers maintain a sizable short hedge of 21,544 contracts against only 5,032 longs. The surge in physical deliveries (crossing 3,100 contracts MTD) alongside falling settlement prices suggests physical buyers are willing to absorb metal at lower levels ($59.06–$59.90) rather than paper traders driving price discovery via speculative leverage.

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Risks and watchpoints

• Delivery exhaustion vs. rollover: Watch whether daily delivery notices remain above the 300-contract threshold or taper off as the active delivery window matures.
• Price support at sub-$60.00: Settlement prices dropped from $61.168 on October 6 to $59.064 on October 8. If physical stops continue at current high volumes, it may establish a physical floor against paper selling.
• Commercial short covering: Monitor whether commercial producers deliver directly against their short hedges or cover positions in subsequent COT updates.