Silver Physical Market Brief: 2026-08-24

Executive summary

Physical delivery activity for Silver futures on COMEX showed a moderate pace today, with 40 new contracts posted for delivery. This brings the month-to-date total for the August contract to 1,647 contracts, indicating steady but not spectacular demand for physical settlement. Cross-referencing with the latest CFTC data reveals that Managed Money holds a significant net long position. This highlights a potential divergence: speculative sentiment appears more bullish than what is currently reflected in the physical delivery data.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

• Today's Activity: A total of 40 contracts were issued and stopped for delivery on August 24. This activity was split between two contracts:
  • August 2026 COMEX 5000 Silver Futures (SI): 20 contracts
  • August 2026 Micro Silver Futures: 20 contracts
• Month-to-Date (MTD) Volume: The cumulative delivery total for the August 2026 contract cycle now stands at 1,647 contracts.
• Recent Trend: Today's volume of 40 contracts marks an increase from the 10 contracts reported on August 20 but remains below the levels seen earlier in the month (e.g., 52 contracts on August 18 and 86 on August 17).

For more detail, see the full warehouse and delivery data.

Warehouse stocks

CME does not publish specific warehouse stock levels for COMEX Silver futures. Analysis of the physical market relies on delivery intention notices.

COT cross-check

• Speculative Stance: The latest Commitment of Traders data (as of August 21) shows that Managed Money is significantly net long by 11,705 contracts (19,533 long vs. 7,838 short). This indicates a strong bullish conviction among speculative funds.
• Commercial Hedging: As expected, Producer/Merchant accounts (Commercials) hold a large net short position of -16,087 contracts, primarily for hedging purposes.
• Positioning vs. Physical: The strong net long speculative position suggests that money managers are betting on higher prices. However, the current physical delivery volume, while consistent, has not shown the kind of acceleration that would strongly validate this aggressive bullish positioning.

Risks and watchpoints

• Speculative vs. Physical Divergence: The key risk is the gap between bullish paper positioning and the more modest physical offtake. If delivery demand does not accelerate into month-end, the large speculative long position could be vulnerable to unwinding, which would pressure prices lower.
• End-of-Month Activity: Monitor delivery intentions closely as the August contract cycle concludes. A late surge in contracts being stopped for delivery would be a bullish signal, indicating that physical demand is strengthening and absorbing available supply.
• Open Interest Context: Total open interest of 120,117 contracts dwarfs the 1,647 contracts delivered month-to-date. While only a small fraction of futures are typically settled physically, a material change in this ratio can signal important shifts in the underlying market balance.