Silver Physical Market Brief: August 20, 2026

Executive summary

Physical delivery activity for the August SI contract continues its late-month deceleration, with only 10 new contracts posted. The month-to-date total now exceeds 1,600 contracts, indicating consistent, if not explosive, demand for physical settlement throughout the delivery period. Meanwhile, the latest CFTC data shows Managed Money maintaining a significant net long position, suggesting speculative sentiment remains more bullish than what the tapering physical delivery data might imply on its own.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

• Today's Activity: For the August 2026 contract, 10 contracts were issued and subsequently stopped (taken for delivery).
• Month-to-Date (MTD): The total number of contracts delivered for the August contract month has reached 1,627.
• Recent Trend: Today's volume continues a slowdown typical for a contract nearing expiry. Activity has decreased from 86 contracts on August 17th and 52 on August 18th to just 11 yesterday and 10 today. This tapering-off pattern is normal as open interest rolls to forward months.

Warehouse stocks

CME Group does not publish consolidated, daily warehouse stock levels for COMEX Silver futures. Physical market tightness must be inferred from other indicators, such as the volume and trend of delivery intentions.

COT cross-check

• Speculative Stance: As of the latest report date of August 14th, Managed Money holds a net long position of 11,158 contracts (19,956 longs vs. 8,798 shorts). This indicates continued bullish sentiment among speculative traders.
• Commercial Stance: In contrast, Commercials (Producer/Merchant) hold a large net short position of -15,946 contracts, reflecting ongoing producer hedging.
• Positioning vs. Physical: The strong net long speculative position suggests expectations for higher prices, which contrasts with the slowing physical offtake seen in the delivery data for the expiring August contract. This divergence is not unusual during a contract roll period but warrants monitoring.

Risks and watchpoints

• Contract Roll Dynamics: The primary focus is now on the roll from the August to the next active contract. A high percentage of contracts being rolled forward instead of being delivered can sometimes indicate a lack of urgent demand for physical metal.
• Commercial Hedging: The significant net short position held by commercials could present headwinds for any price rally, as producers may use higher prices to add to their hedges.
• Data Limitations: Without public warehouse data, delivery notices are a key proxy for physical demand. Any unexpected resurgence in delivery volume late in the month would be a notable bullish signal.