Silver Physical Market Brief: 2026-07-22

Executive summary

A significant surge in delivery intentions was reported today, with 305 contracts issued for the July contract. This marks the largest single-day delivery notice volume in the provided recent history and pushes the month-to-date total above 9,100 contracts. This acceleration in physical settlement activity aligns with the net-long positioning held by managed money as of the latest COT report, suggesting that speculative sentiment is currently supported by tangible physical demand.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

• Today's Activity: A total of 305 contracts were issued for delivery today, a sharp increase from just 19 contracts yesterday and zero the day before.
• Contract Breakdown: The majority of today's activity was in the standard 5000 oz contract, with 295 contracts issued, supplemented by 10 Micro Silver contracts.
• Month-to-Date (MTD): Today's activity brings the MTD total for the primary July 2026 contract to 9,139 contracts. This represents a significant volume for the delivery month and reflects a consistent pattern of physical settlement throughout July. The MTD total has climbed steadily from 5,813 contracts reported on July 9th.

Warehouse stocks

CME does not publish detailed, daily warehouse stock levels for COMEX Silver in this data format. Therefore, a direct analysis of warehouse inventory changes is not possible from this feed.

COT cross-check

The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) data, as of July 17, 2026, shows a clear net-long position among speculators. - Managed Money Net Position: Managed money was net long by 11,501 contracts (17,554 long vs. 6,053 short). - Physical Divergence Check: There is no significant divergence at present. The strong and accelerating physical delivery demand seen in the intentions data is consistent with the bullish speculative positioning. The physical market action appears to be validating the net-long paper positioning.

Risks and watchpoints

• Sustained Demand: The key watchpoint is whether this high level of delivery intentions persists through the end of the July delivery period. Continued strong offtake would reinforce the theme of a tight physical market.
• COT Data Lag: The COT positioning data is from July 17. The next report will be crucial to see if managed money added to or reduced their long exposure during this period of rising prices and delivery volume.
• Settlement Price: Today's notices were issued against a settlement price of $60.019, up significantly from the mid-$50s levels seen in the prior week. Watching delivery volumes at these higher prices is key to gauging the elasticity of physical demand.