Silver Physical Market Brief: 2026-07-21

Executive summary

Physical delivery activity resumed today after a pause, with 19 new contracts issued for the July contract. While a modest daily figure, this brings the month-to-date total to a substantial 8,844 contracts, indicating persistent demand for physical metal throughout the delivery period. Speculative positioning from the most recent COT report shows Managed Money holding a net long position, which is consistent with the strong underlying physical offtake seen this month.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

• Today's Activity: For the JULY 2026 COMEX 5000 Silver Futures contract, 19 contracts were issued and stopped for delivery. This activity occurred at a settlement price of 58.835 USD.
• Month-to-Date (MTD) Volume: The cumulative delivery total for the July contract now stands at 8,844 contracts.
• Trend Context: Today’s 19 contracts represent a resumption of delivery intentions after a day of zero activity on July 20th. The MTD total reflects consistently strong demand for physical settlement throughout the month, with several days seeing volumes well over 100 contracts (e.g., 141 on July 13th and 135 on July 10th).

Warehouse stocks

CME does not publish consolidated daily warehouse stock data for COMEX Silver in this data feed. Analysis is therefore focused on delivery flow dynamics.

COT cross-check

• Speculative Positioning: As of the latest COT report (July 17, 2026), Managed Money held a net long position of +11,501 contracts (17,554 long vs. 6,053 short).
• Physical vs. Positioning: The net long stance by speculators is aligned with the strong physical demand evidenced by the 8,844 contracts delivered month-to-date. There is no significant divergence; both paper positioning and physical offtake suggest bullish sentiment. Commercials (Producers/Merchants) held a large net short position (-12,708 contracts), which is typical hedging behavior but also underscores the significant physical demand they are hedging against.

Risks and watchpoints

• Sustained Delivery Demand: The key watchpoint is whether the pace of deliveries continues through the remainder of the July contract. A continuation of this strong trend would signal robust physical demand at current price levels.
• Limited Stock Visibility: Without daily warehouse stock data, the primary indicator of physical market tightness remains the flow of delivery notices. This is a lagging indicator, and any sudden supply constraints may not be immediately visible.
• Commercial Hedging: The large net short position held by commercials is a point of interest. While typical, if physical demand accelerates further, it could put pressure on this large block of hedges.