Silver Physical Market Brief: 2026-07-17

Executive summary

Physical delivery activity for the July silver contract is slowing, a typical pattern for this point in the delivery month. Today saw only minor activity, but the cumulative total remains substantial at 7,436 contracts month-to-date, indicating firm demand for physical settlement this cycle. Speculative positioning via the latest COT data shows managed money remains significantly net long, which is consistent with the strong underlying demand to take delivery seen earlier in the month.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

• Today's Activity (July 17): A light day of activity saw 11 contracts issued and 11 contracts stopped for the JULY 2026 COMEX 5000 SILVER FUTURES.
• Month-to-Date (MTD): The cumulative delivery total for the July contract now stands at 7,436 contracts.
• Recent Trend: Daily delivery volume has tapered off significantly from levels seen earlier in the delivery period. For context, activity on prior days was:
  • July 16: 0 contracts
  • July 15: 92 contracts
  • July 14: 81 contracts
  • July 13: 141 contracts

This slowdown is normal as the active delivery month progresses. The key takeaway remains the large cumulative volume delivered this month.

Warehouse stocks

CME does not publish comprehensive daily warehouse stock levels for COMEX Silver in this data feed. Analysis is therefore focused on delivery flow dynamics.

COT cross-check

The latest positioning data provides a useful cross-check against the physical market's strong delivery volume. - Managed Money (Speculators): This group holds a net long position of 11,501 contracts (17,554 long vs. 6,053 short). - Producers/Merchants (Commercials): This group holds a net short position of -12,708 contracts (5,548 long vs. 18,256 short), a typical hedging posture.

The significant net long positioning from speculators aligns with the robust month-to-date demand for physical delivery, as speculators are often the contract holders who "stop" or take delivery. Commercials' net short stance is consistent with their role as producers and merchants hedging and issuing delivery notices.

Risks and watchpoints

• End-of-Month Delivery Volume: While daily volumes are decreasing as expected, the final MTD total will be a key indicator of physical demand strength for the July contract.
• Speculative Positioning vs. Physical Flow: A divergence to watch for would be a rapid liquidation of the managed money net long position. If this occurs while physical demand (e.g., delivery intentions) remains robust, it could signal a disconnect between paper and physical markets.
• Open Interest: Total open interest stands at 105,023 contracts. Monitoring the change in open interest alongside speculator positioning will be crucial for gauging market sentiment heading into the next active contract month.