Silver Physical Market Brief: 2026-07-16

Executive summary

Physical delivery activity for the JULY 2026 contract has come to a sudden halt, with zero delivery intentions reported today. This is a sharp reversal from the steady stream of deliveries seen in recent days. While the month-to-date total remains substantial at 7,425 contracts, the abrupt stop in new intentions is a key development. The latest available Commitments of Traders (COT) data shows managed money held a significant net long position, which now appears divergent from the immediate physical market trend.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

• Today's Activity: For the JULY 2026 COMEX 5000 Silver Futures contract, there were 0 contracts issued and 0 contracts stopped for delivery.
• Recent Trend: This marks a significant drop-off from the prior days. For context, 92 contracts were delivered on July 15, 81 on July 14, and 141 on July 13.
• Month-to-Date (MTD): The cumulative delivery total for the July contract now stands at 7,425 contracts.

Warehouse stocks

CME does not publish daily warehouse stock levels for COMEX Silver futures. Analysis of physical tightness relies on delivery intentions and other market indicators.

COT cross-check

The most recent COT data (as of July 10, 2026) provides a useful positioning backdrop: - Managed Money: Speculators were significantly net long, with longs at 19,294 contracts versus shorts at 6,093. - Producer/Merchant (Commercials): Commercials held a large net short position, as expected from hedgers. - Divergence: The strong net long speculative positioning seen last week contrasts with the sudden halt in physical delivery intentions reported today. This suggests paper market sentiment may be out of sync with immediate physical offtake.

Risks and watchpoints

• Halt in Deliveries: The primary watchpoint is whether the zero-delivery day is a temporary pause or signals the end of the delivery cycle for the active month. A sustained lack of delivery interest could suggest weakening physical demand at current prices.
• Positioning vs. Physicals: A divergence between long speculative positioning and slowing physical delivery can be a precursor to volatility. If physical demand is waning, the large speculative long position could be vulnerable to unwinding.
• Data Gap: The absence of warehouse stock data remains a key limitation, making it difficult to gauge the true level of available physical supply in exchange vaults.