Silver COT Brief: Week Ending July 31, 2026

Executive summary

This report covers positioning in the Silver futures market for the week ending July 31, 2026. Overall market participation remains muted, with open interest near the lowest levels seen in the provided historical data. The primary dynamic this week was a bearish shift from Managed Money, who increased their short exposure significantly. This was absorbed by Swap Dealers, who continued to cover their large net short position. Producers/Merchants were largely inactive. Despite the spec selling, the market remains in a classic configuration with speculators (Managed Money) net long and commercials (Producers & Swaps) net short, though the conviction on both sides appears much lower than earlier in the year.

Positioning

• Managed Money Net Position: +9,182 contracts net long. This is a reduction from the prior week's +11,282 net long and is significantly below the +21,887 net long position held in late December 2025.
• Swap Dealers Net Position: -25,780 contracts net short. While still the largest short position in the market, this is a continued reduction from the -27,409 net short held last week and is less extreme than the nearly -30,000 contract short seen in December 2025.
• Producer/Merchant Net Position: -13,029 contracts net short. This is almost unchanged from the prior week and is dramatically smaller than the -25,373 contract net short seen in December, indicating significantly less producer hedging.
• Non-reportable ("Retail") Net Position: +16,592 contracts net long. This group remains a significant and stubborn long.

Flows and week-over-week changes

• Managed Money: This group drove the week's activity with a net bearish flow. They reduced their net long position by 2,100 contracts. This change was composed of a minor reduction in longs (-265 contracts) but a substantial addition of new shorts (+1,835 contracts).
• Swap Dealers: Moved in the opposite direction, covering shorts and reducing their net short position by 1,629 contracts. This was achieved by cutting 1,277 short contracts while adding 352 long contracts.
• Producer/Merchant: Showed minimal activity, with a negligible net change of +15 contracts (adding 335 longs and 320 shorts).
• Other Reportables: This category saw a net reduction in their long position, primarily by liquidating 1,162 long contracts and 2,014 short contracts.

Commercials vs Speculators

• The combined Commercial position (Producers/Merchants + Swap Dealers) stands at -38,809 contracts net short. This group provides liquidity and hedges physical market exposure. Their short covering this week, led by Swaps, was a supportive factor.
• The combined primary Speculator position (Managed Money + Other Reportables) is +22,217 contracts net long. The net selling from this group, led by Managed Money, was the primary headwind for prices during the reporting period.
• The market structure remains intact with commercials short and speculators long, but the overall size of these positions is historically light, suggesting a lack of strong directional conviction.

Open interest and participation

• Total open interest stands at 106,719 contracts, a slight increase of just 309 contracts from the previous week.
• This level represents a significant decline from the 150,000+ contracts of open interest seen in early 2026, indicating a substantial amount of capital has exited the Silver market. Low participation can sometimes lead to higher volatility when new flows emerge.
• Position concentration on the short side remains notable. The largest four traders hold 29.5% of the net short position, while the largest eight hold 43.5%. This is typical of a market where commercial and dealer hedging constitutes the bulk of the short interest.

Price context

The provided daily price series shows that during the reporting period, the market experienced weakness. The price for the front-month contract fell from a close of 58.52 on Monday, July 27 to 57.19 on Tuesday, July 28, the day positioning data was captured. The price ended the week at 57.465. The increase in Managed Money short positions (+1,835 contracts) aligns perfectly with the price decline on the reporting day, suggesting this group was either a catalyst for, or a participant in, the downward move. Conversely, Swap Dealers used this price weakness as an opportunity to cover shorts.

Risks and watchpoints

• Managed Money Shorts: The aggressive addition of shorts by Managed Money is a key development to watch. A continuation of this trend could pressure prices further. However, should the market find a footing, these fresh shorts could become fuel for a sharp rally if forced to cover.
• Low Open Interest: The currently low level of market participation is a risk factor. While it reflects apathy, it also means the market is susceptible to outsized moves if a new catalyst brings significant capital back into Silver futures.
• Producer Inactivity: The historically low level of producer hedging (-13,029 contracts) suggests that at current price levels, producers are not aggressively selling forward their future production. A significant price rally would likely be required to entice them to increase hedging activity.
• Large Retail Long: The Non-reportable category holds a large net long position (+16,592 contracts). This group can be prone to capitulation, and a break of key technical support could trigger a wave of selling from these participants.