Silver Futures COT Brief: Week Ending March 13, 2026

Executive summary

This week's report reveals a significant shift in speculative sentiment, driven by aggressive short-covering from the Managed Money category. Their net long position expanded considerably, primarily due to a sharp reduction in short contracts. This activity coincided with a price rally during the reporting week. Open interest ticked up slightly, suggesting the first hints of new capital entering the market, though overall participation remains substantially below the levels seen earlier in the year. Commercials, specifically Swap Dealers and Producers, modestly increased their net short positions, absorbing the renewed speculative buying. While the speculative mood has improved, positioning is far from the bullish extremes of late December, and the large, concentrated short positions of Swap Dealers remain a key feature of the market structure.

Positioning

• Managed Money (Funds): The net long position for this speculative cohort surged to +10,289 contracts. This is a notable increase from last week's +7,766 contracts but remains less than half of the recent peak net long of +21,887 contracts seen on December 23. The current positioning is moderately bullish but not yet crowded.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): Producers increased their net short hedge book to -16,153 contracts. Historically, this is a relatively light net short position for this group, which held net shorts exceeding -25,000 contracts in December and January.
• Swap Dealers: This group remains the largest net short holder in the market, with a position of -25,424 contracts. This is slightly more short than the prior week and is a structurally significant position that often acts as a counter-weight to speculative longs.
• Non-Reportable (Retail): Small speculators continue to hold a significant bullish view, with a net long position of +16,999 contracts, one of the highest levels in the provided data.

Flows and week-over-week changes

The most significant flow this week was the change in Managed Money positioning, which accounted for a net buying of +2,523 contracts. This was driven by a modest addition of new longs (+424 contracts) but dominated by a substantial closure of short positions (-2,099 contracts). This indicates a classic short-covering rally.

Other key changes include: - Producer/Merchants increased their net short position by 1,138 contracts, accomplished by reducing longs (-569) and adding new shorts (+569). - Swap Dealers also became more bearish, increasing their net short position by 473 contracts. They added both longs (+1,820) and a larger number of shorts (+2,293), indicating active market-making.

Commercials vs speculators

A clear divergence persists between informed hedgers and price speculators. - Speculators (Managed Money + Non-Reportable): The combined net long position of these two groups now stands at +27,288 contracts, a significant increase from the prior week. This reflects a growing speculative conviction in higher prices. - Commercials (Producer/Merchant + Swap Dealers): The combined net short position of these commercial entities deepened to -41,577 contracts. This classic setup, with commercials selling to speculators, is typical of a futures market but highlights the tension between those hedging physical flows and those betting on price direction.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest: Total open interest rose by 2,132 contracts to 115,458. The fact that open interest increased alongside the surge in the Managed Money net long position is a bullish signal, as it suggests new money entered the market rather than just a transfer between existing participants.
• Participation & Concentration: At 115k contracts, overall open interest remains severely depressed compared to the 157k contract peak in early January. The total number of traders has fallen to 153, down from 240 in late December, confirming that many participants have exited the market. The market's short side remains highly concentrated, with the 4 largest traders holding 27.0% of the net short position.

Price context

The price series provides crucial context for this week's positioning changes. The COT data reflects positions held as of Tuesday, March 10. - On the prior report's closing day (March 6), the front contract closed at $82.985. - During the reporting week, the price rallied sharply, closing at $87.24 on Tuesday, March 10. This price surge aligns perfectly with the significant short-covering from Managed Money, who were likely forced out of bearish bets. - It is notable that by Friday, March 13 (the report's release date), the price had fallen back to $82.0, giving back the entire weekly gain. This suggests that while short-covering provided a temporary boost, there was insufficient follow-through buying to sustain the rally.

Risks and watchpoints

• Watchpoint: Follow-through from Managed Money. The key question is whether funds will now build a fresh, outright long position or if this was merely a short-covering event. With their net position still well below recent peaks, there is significant "dry powder" for further buying.
• Watchpoint: Open Interest Trajectory. A sustained price advance must be accompanied by a steady rise in open interest. The small increase this week is constructive, but a failure for OI to expand on subsequent rallies would be a warning sign.
• Risk: Commercial Selling Pressure. The large and unwavering net short position of Swap Dealers, combined with the potential for increased producer hedging should prices rise further, presents a formidable headwind for any sustained bull move. The price rejection following the rally to $87.24 indicates this selling pressure is still potent.
• Risk: Retail Extremism. The large net long position held by non-reportable traders is a potential contrarian concern. This group is often on the wrong side of major trend changes.