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Palladium COT — Week of September 25, 2026

Palladium COT Report: Week of September 25, 2026

Executive summary

  • Managed Money Net Bearish Stance Persists: Managed money accounts extended their net short positioning to -6,006 contracts (4,028 long vs. 10,034 short), down by 318 contracts net on the week. Speculators now control 60.0% of total short open interest.
  • Swap Dealers Anchor the Long Side: Swap dealers remain the dominant long counterbalance, holding a net long position of +3,900 contracts (6,179 long vs. 2,279 short), comprising 36.9% of all long open interest.
  • Open Interest Remains Subdued: Total open interest ticked up slightly by 23 contracts to 16,730, remaining well below the 20,000+ contract levels seen late in 2025 and early 2026.
  • Price Drift into Support: Front-month PA closed at $1,284.50/oz on September 22, 2026, holding within a consolidating range near multi-month lows following a sharp drop from above $1,420/oz in late August/early September.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

Trader Category Long Positions Short Positions Spreading Net Position % of Open Interest (Long / Short)
Managed Money 4,028 10,034 725 -6,006 24.1% / 60.0%
Swap Dealers 6,179 2,279 86 +3,900 36.9% / 13.6%
Other Reportables 1,911 438 185 +1,473 11.4% / 2.6%
Producer/Merchant 891 1,560 — -669 5.3% / 9.3%
Non-Reportable 2,725 1,423 — +1,302 16.3% / 8.5%

Historical Context & Extremes

  • Managed Money: The current net short position of -6,006 contracts reflects heavy speculative bearishness that has persisted since late spring 2026. Gross shorts at 10,034 contracts approach the summer peaks (10,583 contracts on July 24, 2026) and stand in stark contrast to early 2026, when managed money held a net long position (+293 contracts on December 23, 2025; +1,070 contracts on February 27, 2026).
  • Swap Dealers: Net long positioning (+3,900 contracts) remains near the upper bounds of the historical range, having expanded significantly from late 2025 (+1,581 contracts on December 23, 2025).
  • Producer/Merchant: Commercial hedgers hold relatively low aggregate exposure (891 longs vs. 1,560 shorts, net -669 contracts), substantially down from short hedging peaks above 4,500 contracts in late 2025.

Flows and week-over-week changes

Total open interest changed by +23 contracts week-over-week, moving from 16,707 to 16,730 contracts.

Managed Money Longs:    -245 contracts
Managed Money Shorts:   +73 contracts
Managed Money Spreading:+124 contracts
Net Speculative Flow:   -318 contracts (Bearish expansion)

Swap Dealer Longs:      +145 contracts
Swap Dealer Shorts:     -22 contracts
Swap Dealer Spreading:  +5 contracts
Net Dealer Flow:        +167 contracts (Bullish expansion)

Other Reportables Net:  -65 contracts (-100 long / -35 short)
Producer/Merchant Net:  -14 contracts (-67 long / -53 short)
Non-Reportable Net:     +230 contracts (+139 long / -91 short)
  • Speculative Liquidation & Additions: Managed money continued to shed long exposure (-245 contracts) while adding modest shorts (+73 contracts), deepening their overall net short stance.
  • Intermediary Absorption: Swap dealers absorbed the speculative selling by adding 145 gross longs and covering 22 gross shorts.
  • Retail/Smaller Participants: Non-reportable traders added net length (+230 contracts), expanding their net long bias to +1,302 contracts.

Commercials vs speculators

Managed Money (Speculative) vs Commercial / Dealer Positioning
================================================================================
Managed Money Net:      [ -6,006 ]  ==================== (Heavy Net Short)
Swap Dealers Net:       [ +3,900 ]  ++++++++++++++       (Substantial Net Long)
Producer/Merchant Net:  [   -669 ]  ==                   (Mild Net Short)
Other Reportables Net:  [ +1,473 ]  +++++                (Net Long)
Non-Reportable Net:     [ +1,302 ]  +++++                (Net Long)
================================================================================
  • Structural Polarization: The market displays a distinct structural divide where managed money holds the vast majority of short risk (60.0% of open interest), while swap dealers and non-reportable traders provide the primary long-side liquidity.
  • Producer Abstinence: Traditional producer/merchant short hedging remains subdued at 1,560 contracts (9.3% of OI), down from 4,544 contracts (20.6% of OI) in December 2025, indicating minimal aggressive hedging at current price levels.

Open interest and participation

  • Total Open Interest: Stood at 16,730 contracts as of September 25, 2026, slightly above the prior week (16,707) and off the year-to-date lows near 14,648 contracts seen in mid-April 2026.
  • Participation: Total trader count registered at 152 traders (compared to 155 in the prior week and 188 in December 2025).
    • Managed money accounts comprise 32 gross longs, 36 gross shorts, and 18 spreaders.
    • Swap dealers comprise 20 gross longs and 9 gross shorts.
  • Concentration:
    • Top 4 Traders: Gross long positions account for 28.2% of open interest; gross short positions account for 31.9%.
    • Top 8 Traders: Gross long positions account for 41.5% of open interest; gross short positions account for 47.9%.
    • Net concentration shows the top 8 traders holding 46.7% of the total net short positions, indicating a moderately concentrated short profile.

Price context

The price series for front-month Palladium (PA) reflects a sustained downtrend throughout 2026, followed by a range-bound consolidation:

2025-12-23: $1,937.00/oz  (Year-end baseline)
2026-01-26: $2,198.00/oz  (Period high)
2026-06-24: $1,177.00/oz  (Period low)
2026-08-28: $1,423.50/oz  (Late summer rebound)
2026-09-18: $1,291.50/oz  (Pre-report close)
2026-09-22: $1,284.50/oz  (Latest available close)
  • Price-Positioning Interplay: The drop from the late-January high above $2,190/oz down to the June low below $1,180/oz was accompanied by a massive transition in managed money positioning, shifting from net long to heavily net short.
  • Recent Range: Following a brief rally to $1,423.50/oz in late August, prices retreated back below $1,300/oz in mid-September. The latest price of $1,284.50/oz on September 22 aligns with the ongoing heavy speculative short interest exceeding 10,000 contracts.

Risks and watchpoints

  • Short Squeeze Vulnerability: With managed money holding 10,034 gross short contracts (60.0% of open interest) against a relatively illiquid market (16,730 total open interest), any sudden supply disruption or physical market tightening could trigger aggressive short covering.
  • Narrowing Commercial Margins: Low producer hedging (1,560 contracts) suggests physical miners have little appetite to lock in forward sales at current price levels near $1,280–$1,300/oz.
  • Swap Dealer Concentration: Swap dealers hold 36.9% of the total long open interest. Any unwinding of OTC derivative long hedges by swap counterparties could remove crucial demand support.
  • Delivery & Warehouse Dynamics: Monitor inventory changes via the Palladium Warehouse and Delivery data stream to identify physical drawdowns that could challenge paper short positioning. Check historical positioning shifts via the Palladium COT Hub.