NOAA Degree Days Analysis: Week Ending 2026-04-04

Executive Summary

The week ending April 4th was significantly warmer than normal across the United States, driven by large warm anomalies in the Mountain, Pacific, and Midwest regions. This resulted in substantially lower-than-normal heating demand, which will translate into a bearish signal for natural gas consumption and support a larger-than-average injection into storage for the period.

Weather Snapshot

On a national population-weighted basis, the week registered 41.0 Heating Degree Days (HDDs) and 13.0 Cooling Degree Days (CDDs). This represents a deviation of -13.0 HDDs below normal, indicating much milder conditions than typical for the first week of April. CDDs were slightly above normal by +1.0.

Key regional deviations include: * Mountain: Experienced the most significant departure from normal, with -57.0 fewer HDDs than average. * Pacific: Also saw substantially warmer weather, registering -40.8 fewer HDDs than normal. * Midwest: A key heating demand center, was -29.0 HDDs below normal. * South Central: Displayed the strongest early-season cooling demand, with +8.5 more CDDs than normal.

Natural Gas Demand Implications

The weather data points to a week of significantly weak natural gas demand, with bearish implications for storage.

• Demand Impact: The national deficit of -13.0 HDDs directly translates to much lower demand for residential and commercial space heating, the primary driver of gas consumption in the shoulder season. While the modest +1.0 CDD surplus, led by the South Central and Mountain regions, created some offsetting power burn demand for cooling, its impact is minor compared to the lost heating load. The net effect is a substantial week-over-week and year-over-year decrease in weather-driven demand.

• Storage Impact: With lower consumption, more gas was available for injection into underground storage. This week’s weather pattern is highly supportive of a storage build that will exceed the 5-year average. This will be viewed as a loosening of the supply/demand balance.

Forward-Looking Context

This analysis reflects conditions for the past week. It is important to contextualize this data:

• Seasonal Shift: Early April marks the "shoulder season," where the market transitions from winter heating (storage withdrawals) to summer cooling (storage injections). The large bearish deviation this week provides a strong start to the injection season, potentially weighing on forward prices.

• Analysis Caveats: Population-weighted degree days are a strong proxy for residential/commercial demand but do not capture the full demand picture. The ultimate storage impact is also influenced by other non-weather factors, including power generation fuel mix (wind/solar output), industrial activity, and LNG export volumes.