NOAA Degree Days Analysis: Week Ending 2026-03-28

Executive Summary

The week ending March 28th was significantly warmer than normal across the United States, leading to substantially lower natural gas demand. Nationally, the weather registered 13.0 fewer Heating Degree Days (HDDs) and 5.0 more Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) than average. This bearish weather pattern points to a much smaller-than-average weekly storage withdrawal, or potentially an early net injection, pressuring natural gas prices.

Weather Snapshot

On a national population-weighted basis, the U.S. recorded 56.0 HDDs and 10.0 CDDs for the week. This represents a significant deviation from seasonal norms, with HDDs running 13.0 below average and CDDs 5.0 above average, indicating widespread warmth.

• Largest Bearish Deviations (Heating Demand): All regions were warmer than normal. The most significant deviations occurred in:
  • Mountain: 20.3 HDDs below normal.
  • South Central: 14.8 HDDs below normal.
• Largest Bullish Deviations (Cooling Demand): Early-season cooling demand was strongest in:
  • Mountain: 11.0 CDDs above normal.
  • South Central: 10.5 CDDs above normal.

The data clearly shows a pattern of suppressed heating demand nationwide, with the South Central and Mountain regions also experiencing a notable increase in early-season cooling load.

Natural Gas Demand Implications

The substantial lack of heating demand is the dominant factor for the natural gas market.

• Demand Impact: The 13.0 national HDD deficit implies sharply lower demand for residential and commercial (res/com) space heating. While the 5.0 surplus in CDDs created some offsetting power generation demand for cooling, the net effect on total demand is strongly bearish. Lost heating demand far outweighs gains from early-season air conditioning load.

• Storage Impact: Late March is typically the final period of the winter withdrawal season. This anomalously warm weather will severely curtail the need to pull gas from storage. The market should anticipate the corresponding EIA storage report to show either a very weak withdrawal compared to the 5-year average or a potential net injection, which would be unseasonably early. This will likely leave end-of-winter inventories at a healthier-than-expected level.

Forward-Looking Context

This analysis provides a snapshot based on temperature data, but other factors should be considered.

• Seasonal Context: As the market transitions from winter to the spring "shoulder season," weather-driven demand becomes highly variable. A warm end to March, as seen this week, eases concerns about low end-of-season storage levels and can set a bearish tone for the start of the injection season (April-October).

• Caveats: This analysis is based on temperature deviations alone. Actual gas consumption can be influenced by other variables, including renewable generation output (wind and solar), cloud cover, and economic activity. For instance, lower-than-expected wind generation during the week could have increased the call on natural gas for power generation, partially offsetting the impact of the warm temperatures.