Storage call scorecard

Every Wednesday we publish a call for the Lower-48 net change in the Thursday EIA storage report. This page lists every call since the current model went live on Sep 3, 2026, with the time it was published, the print, and the seasonal naive it has to beat. Misses stay on the page.

How the call is made Download CSV This week's forecast

Open call

+70.9 Bcf, build

Week ending Oct 16, 2026. Published Thu Oct 15, 7:20 PM ET. Scored after the EIA release on Thu Oct 22, 10:30 AM ET.

Live record

Window Forecaster Weeks RMSE (Bcf) MAE (Bcf) Direction right
Last 8 weeks Arc Research 6 23.4 20.4 100%
Street consensus 0 — — —
Seasonal naive 6 24.7 22.1 100%
Last 26 weeks Arc Research 6 23.4 20.4 100%
Street consensus 0 — — —
Seasonal naive 6 24.7 22.1 100%

6 calls scored so far. A window shows fewer weeks than its name until that many calls have been scored. Street consensus is not on the record yet; it is collected before each release and scored from the first week it is captured. Direction is build, withdraw, or flat (a change under 5 Bcf either way).

Call versus print

050Actual +40.0 BcfSeasonal naive +70.7 BcfArc Research call +69.6 BcfSep 4Actual +44.0 BcfSeasonal naive +83.0 BcfArc Research call +81.7 BcfSep 11Actual +53.0 BcfSeasonal naive +75.2 BcfArc Research call +73.6 BcfSep 18Actual +64.0 BcfSeasonal naive +85.3 BcfArc Research call +83.5 BcfSep 25Actual +85.0 BcfSeasonal naive +89.1 BcfArc Research call +87.1 BcfOct 2Actual +67.0 BcfSeasonal naive +82.0 BcfArc Research call +79.8 BcfOct 9Seasonal naive +70.8 BcfArc Research call +70.9 BcfOct 16
Arc Research call EIA actual Seasonal naive

Every call

A call counts only if it was published before the Thursday 10:30 ET release. The fingerprint is a SHA-256 of what was published, so a changed number would change it.

Week ending Published (ET) Arc Research Actual Error Naive Consensus Direction Fingerprint
Oct 16, 2026 Thu Oct 15, 7:20 PM +70.9 Pending — +70.8 — build ec4c3cfb2598
Oct 9, 2026 Wed Oct 14, 7:20 PM +79.8 +67.0 +12.8 +82.0 — Right c7483882793b
Oct 2, 2026 Wed Oct 7, 7:20 PM +87.1 +85.0 +2.1 +89.1 — Right 334a1b2fc0c8
Sep 25, 2026 Wed Sep 30, 7:20 PM +83.5 +64.0 +19.5 +85.3 — Right e8cf46ef3853
Sep 18, 2026 Wed Sep 23, 7:20 PM +73.6 +53.0 +20.6 +75.2 — Right f3356707c16d
Sep 11, 2026 Wed Sep 16, 7:20 PM +81.7 +44.0 +37.7 +83.0 — Right c6fe2d13e3aa
Sep 4, 2026 Wed Sep 9, 7:20 PM +69.6 +40.0 +29.6 +70.7 — Right 9526b0a66776

Our worst misses

  1. Week ending Sep 11, 2026: called +81.7 Bcf, printed +44.0 Bcf, off by 37.7 Bcf.
  2. Week ending Sep 4, 2026: called +69.6 Bcf, printed +40.0 Bcf, off by 29.6 Bcf.
  3. Week ending Sep 18, 2026: called +73.6 Bcf, printed +53.0 Bcf, off by 20.6 Bcf.

Before going live: the walk-forward backtest

These numbers come from testing the model on past weeks it had not seen, before it was promoted. They are a backtest, not live calls, and are kept separate from the record above.

Window Weeks Arc Research RMSE (Bcf) Naive RMSE (Bcf) Arc Research direction Naive direction
180-day 26 41.6 44.1 85% —
3-year 187 66.0 66.1 82% 81%

Over three years the model and the naive are close to even. The edge is narrow, and the live record above is what counts.