EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Analysis: 2026-02-13

Executive Summary

For the week ending February 13, 2026, a significant withdrawal of 144 Bcf was reported, bringing total inventories further below both year-ago and 5-year average levels. This larger-than-average draw, driven by the East and Midwest regions, indicates a tighter supply/demand balance for the period and is supportive of prices heading into the final stretch of winter.

Storage Snapshot

Working gas in storage for the Lower 48 states decreased by an implied flow of 144 Bcf, landing at a total of 2,070 Bcf. This level is now 2.8% below the year-ago stock of 2,129 Bcf and 5.6% below the 5-year average of 2,193 Bcf.

Regional activity was led by substantial draws in the high-consumption Midwest (-53 Bcf) and East (-50 Bcf) regions. These areas now sit significantly below their respective 5-year averages (-18.4% and -16.9%). In contrast, the Mountain and Pacific regions posted minimal draws of 2 Bcf each and remain well above their 5-year averages by +44.8% and +41.1%, respectively.

Implications

The 144 Bcf withdrawal suggests a market that was undersupplied relative to the five-year average for this time of year. By drawing down inventories below both key historical benchmarks, the report reinforces a tighter market balance narrative. This storage trajectory reduces the inventory cushion available for any remaining winter cold, providing fundamental support for natural gas prices. The absence of any revisions or reclassifications in the report (revision_flag and reclassification_flag are "false") means the implied flow directly reflects market activity for the week.

Risks and Context

Weather Forecast: The primary forward-looking risk remains the weather. This report reflects historical demand; the market's focus will now be on late-February and March forecasts. An extended period of cold could rapidly accelerate withdrawals from already below-average inventories, while a mild end to the heating season would alleviate supply concerns.

Regional Imbalance: The stark contrast between deep storage deficits in the East/Midwest and large surpluses in the West (Mountain/Pacific) is a key contextual factor. This divergence can create significant regional price volatility (basis differentials) and logistical challenges, even as the total Lower 48 inventory points toward a tighter overall balance.