Gold Physical Market Brief – October 1, 2026

Executive summary

Physical delivery activity for Gold futures picked up at the start of October, with 290 contracts issued and stopped across standard COMEX 100 Gold (GC) and Micro Gold contracts. Month-to-date (MTD) cumulative deliveries for the standard October 2026 contract reached 11,465 contracts, while settlement prices consolidated at $4,172.90/oz, down from late-August highs above $4,600/oz. CFTC positioning shows speculative participants maintain an overwhelmingly net-long profile, while physical delivery notices continue at a steady pace entering the October cycle.

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Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

On the October 1, 2026 notice date (delivery date October 5, 2026), COMEX registered 290 total delivery notices across two active October contracts:

• OCTOBER 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES:
  • Daily Issued / Stopped: 160 contracts
  • Month-to-Date Cumulative: 11,465 contracts
  • Settlement Price: $4,172.90 USD
• OCTOBER 2026 MICRO GOLD FUTURES:
  • Daily Issued / Stopped: 130 contracts
  • Month-to-Date Cumulative: 130 contracts
  • Settlement Price: $4,172.90 USD

Historical context & delivery flow

• October contract ramp-up: Following two quiet sessions with zero notices on September 29 and September 30 (which held cumulative October delivery totals at 10,247 and 11,305 contracts respectively), notice activity resumed on October 1 with 290 contracts.
• Monthly cycle comparison:
  • The October standard contract volume (11,465 MTD) is significantly higher than the September 2026 delivery cycle total, which finished near 4,183 contracts on September 25.
  • However, it remains below the large delivery volumes logged during the August 2026 active cycle, which totaled 20,343 contracts for standard gold and 4,614 contracts for micro gold by late August.

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Warehouse stocks

CME does not publish warehouse stock figures in this feed dataset for COMEX Gold (warehouse_stocks: null). Consequently, inventory shifts (registered vs. eligible stocks) cannot be evaluated from this reporting run.

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COT cross-check

Data as of the September 25, 2026 CFTC reporting date:

• Total Open Interest: 412,800 contracts
• Managed Money Positioning: 135,699 longs vs. 8,310 shorts (Net Long: 127,389 contracts)
• Producer/Merchant Positioning: 17,719 longs vs. 44,496 shorts (Net Short: 26,777 contracts)

Positioning vs. Physical Flow: Managed money accounts hold a lopsided net-long exposure (~16.3-to-1 long/short ratio). While heavy physical deliveries occurred in late August and early October, settlement prices have slipped from the $4,600+ range in late August down to $4,172.90. This suggests that despite steady physical stopping activity (11,465 October contracts taken), high speculative net length has faced headwinds as prices retreated toward the low $4,100s.

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Risks and watchpoints

• Speculative overhang: Managed money shorts remain exceptionally low at 8,310 contracts against 135,699 longs. Any sudden liquidation by spec longs could exacerbate price pressure given the recent price decline from August highs.
• Delivery absorption: Track whether standard October delivery notices continue expanding beyond 11,465 contracts in the coming sessions or plateau as the delivery cycle matures.
• Price floor test: Monitor if physical buyers continue stepping in near the $4,150–$4,175 settlement band after the sharp drop from late-August peak levels ($4,640.80 on August 24).