Gold Physical Market Brief: September 30, 2026

Executive summary

• Physical Delivery Activity: Zero contracts were issued or stopped on September 30 for the October 2026 Gold (GC) futures contract, matching the zero deliveries posted on September 29.
• Month-to-Date (MTD) Cumulative Intentions: Total cumulative delivery intentions reached 11,305 contracts at month-end.
• Positioning vs. Physical Flow: CFTC positioning shows Managed Money remains heavily net long (+127,389 contracts as of September 25), indicating sustained speculative paper demand despite physical delivery notifications tapering into the end of September.

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Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

• Today's Activity (September 30, 2026):

  • Contracts Issued / Stopped: 0 contracts
  • Contract: OCTOBER 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
  • Settlement Price: $4,155.60 USD
  • Delivery Date: October 2, 2026
  • Month-to-Date Total: 11,305 contracts

• Trend Context:

  • Physical delivery notices slowed substantially toward the end of September. After steady mid-to-late month deliveries—including 340 contracts on Sept 22, 198 on Sept 23, 107 on Sept 24, and 11 on Sept 25—issuance dropped to zero on both Sept 29 and Sept 30.
  • The September delivery cycle concluded with lower total volume than August 2026 (which logged over 20,300 MTD deliveries before month-end).

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Warehouse stocks

• COMEX warehouse stock data is not published in this feed for Gold.

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COT cross-check

• Reporting Date: September 25, 2026
• Total Open Interest: 412,800 contracts
• Managed Money: 135,699 Longs vs. 8,310 Shorts (Net Long: +127,389 contracts)
• Producer / Merchant: 17,719 Longs vs. 44,496 Shorts (Net Short: -26,777 contracts)

Physical vs. Positioning Divergence: Managed Money positioning remains overwhelmingly bullish, with long exposure outweighing short exposure by more than 16 to 1. While speculative participation remains elevated in paper futures, physical delivery activity moderated sharply during the final week of September as contracts rolled into October.

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Risks and watchpoints

• October Contract Delivery Uptick: Monitor whether October 2026 delivery intentions accelerate in early October or remain muted following the quiet end of September.
• Speculative Long Concentration: With Managed Money net long exceeding 127,000 contracts, any physical delivery bottleneck or reversal in price momentum could trigger rapid long liquidation.
• Price Trend into Settlement: Settlement prices softened from early-September highs above $4,400.00 USD down to $4,155.60 USD on September 30. Continued price consolidation may affect commercial hedging flows and producer short interest.