Gold Physical Market Brief: 2026-09-11

Executive summary

Physical delivery intentions for the September Gold contract saw a notable increase today, with 72 new notices issued. This brings the month-to-date total to a solid 2,800 contracts. While this level of activity indicates consistent physical demand, it remains modest compared to the very high volumes seen in the prior August contract. Speculative positioning, as measured by the latest COT data, remains heavily net long, suggesting a potential divergence between bullish paper market sentiment and the more moderate pace of physical settlement currently underway.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

• Today's Activity: For September 11, 2026, a total of 72 contracts for the SEPTEMBER 2026 COMEX 100 Gold Futures (GC) were issued for delivery, with 72 contracts stopped (claimed by longs). This is a significant uptick from the 8 contracts issued on the prior day.
• Month-to-Date (MTD): The total delivery volume for the September contract now stands at 2,800 contracts.
• Trend Context: Today's activity represents the largest single-day delivery notice volume since September 8th (162 contracts). The delivery process for the September contract has been steady, though it is tracking well below the more than 20,000 contracts delivered against the August 2026 contract.

For more details, see the full warehouse and delivery data.

Warehouse stocks

CME/COMEX does not publish detailed, publicly auditable warehouse stock levels for individual depositories for its Gold contracts. Analysis must therefore rely primarily on delivery intention notices.

COT cross-check

• Speculative Positioning: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data shows Managed Money traders holding a significant net long position of +134,972 contracts (145,804 long vs. 10,832 short).
• Positioning vs. Physicals: This strong net long speculative stance appears more aggressive than the current physical market follow-through. While September delivery volume is consistent, with 2,800 contracts so far, it does not suggest the kind of urgent physical demand that might be expected to underpin such a large paper long position. Commercials (Producer/Merchant) remain net short at -30,961 contracts, a typical hedging posture.

Risks and watchpoints

• Speculative vs. Physical Divergence: The primary watchpoint is the divergence between the very bullish paper positioning of speculators and the more measured pace of physical delivery. A continuation of moderate delivery volumes could challenge the conviction of the large speculative long base.
• End-of-Month Activity: Attention will be on delivery intentions as the September contract month progresses. A significant acceleration in delivery notices would help validate the bullish sentiment, whereas a tapering off could signal that demand is being met easily at current levels.
• Data Limitations: The absence of detailed public warehouse stock data for COMEX Gold remains a key limitation, making delivery intentions the primary, albeit lagging, indicator of physical tightness.