Gold COT — Week of September 25, 2026
Gold COT Analysis — Reporting Week Ended September 25, 2026
Executive summary
The CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for Gold (GC) for the week ending September 25, 2026, highlights continued long liquidation by speculative accounts alongside moderate commercial short-covering.
- Managed Money: Net long exposure dropped by 5,727 contracts to +127,389 lots, marking the fourth consecutive week of speculative net long reduction. The move was driven overwhelmingly by gross long liquidation (-6,695 contracts) rather than fresh short initiation (-968 contracts).
- Commercial Traders: Swap Dealers expanded their net short position marginally by 2,466 contracts to -236,126 lots, while Producer/Merchants reduced their net short exposure by 1,284 contracts to -26,777 lots.
- Open Interest & Total Participation: Total open interest increased slightly by 2,901 contracts to 412,800, while active trader counts slipped from 296 to 293.
- Price Action Correlation: Front-month gold futures softened through September, falling from an August peak of $4,667.8/oz to $4,271.5/oz on September 24, consistent with systematic long unwinds in Managed Money.
Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)
| Category | Gross Long | Gross Short | Spreading | Net Position (2026-09-25) | Net Position (2026-09-18) | WoW Net Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Managed Money | 135,699 | 8,310 | 32,876 | +127,389 | +133,116 | -5,727 |
| Swap Dealers | 14,626 | 250,752 | 25,113 | -236,126 | -233,660 | -2,466 |
| Producer/Merchant | 17,719 | 44,496 | — | -26,777 | -28,061 | +1,284 |
| Other Reportables | 118,283 | 19,819 | 16,047 | +98,464 | +97,222 | +1,242 |
| Nonreportable | 52,437 | 15,387 | — | +37,050 | +31,383 | +5,667 |
Historical Perspective & Extremes
- Managed Money De-risking: Managed money net length peaked recently on August 28, 2026, at +144,747 contracts (gross long of 159,819 contracts). At +127,389 contracts, net speculative length is at its lowest level since early August (130,766 contracts on August 7, 2026), though well above the annual trough seen in June 2026 (+112,179 contracts on June 5, 2026).
- Gross Shorts Depleted: Managed money gross shorts sit at just 8,310 contracts (2.0% of total OI), reflecting an absence of aggressive short-sellers despite recent price softness.
Flows and week-over-week changes
Total open interest rose by 2,901 contracts (+0.71%) to 412,800 contracts:
- Managed Money Liquidation: Large specs shed 6,695 long contracts while covering 968 shorts. Spreading activity fell by 121 contracts to 32,876.
- Commercial Flows Diverge:
- Swap dealers added 2,402 gross shorts and reduced longs by 64 contracts, expanding net short exposure.
- Producer/merchants added 1,323 gross longs and 39 gross shorts, bringing net short exposure down to -26,777 contracts.
- Nonreportable (Retail) Inflow: Small traders displayed the largest outright buying flow, adding 4,977 gross longs and closing 690 shorts, expanding their net long book by 5,667 contracts to +37,050.
- Other Reportables Steady: This group expanded gross longs by 2,618 contracts and gross shorts by 1,376 contracts, keeping their net position near peak levels (+98,464 contracts).
Commercials vs speculators
Managed Money Net Position vs Commercial Net Short
Managed Money Net: [████████████░░░░░░░░] +127,389 contracts
Commercial Net Short: [████████████████████] -262,903 contracts (Swap + Producer)
- Speculative Retrenchment: Speculators have trimmed 24,120 gross long contracts over the past four weeks (from 159,819 on August 28 to 135,699 on September 25). Speculative gross longs now represent 32.9% of total open interest, down from 37.3% in late August.
- Commercial Hedging Pressure: Swap dealers remain heavily net short (-236,126 contracts), holding 60.7% of all short open interest. Producer/merchants hold a comparatively small net short position of -26,777 contracts (10.8% of short OI), having steadily lowered hedge levels compared to early 2026 (where producer gross short positions regularly exceeded 60,000 contracts).
- Concentration Metrics:
- The 4 largest traders hold 38.6% of net short open interest and 20.5% of net long open interest.
- The 8 largest traders hold 55.1% of net short open interest and 28.3% of net long open interest.
- Short concentration remains elevated, primarily concentrated among multi-dealer swap desks hedging client OTC and ETF products.
Open interest and participation
- Aggregate Open Interest: Open interest edged higher by 2,901 contracts to 412,800. This is roughly mid-range across 2026, well below the peak of 527,455 contracts recorded in mid-January 2026, but elevated relative to the summer trough of 326,052 contracts on June 5, 2026.
- Trader Count: Total active reporting entities stood at 293 (down from 296 prior week, and 305 two weeks prior).
- Managed money long count remained stable at 92 traders (vs 93 prior week).
- Managed money short count edged up to 14 traders (vs 11 prior week).
- Swap dealer short count rose from 25 to 26 traders.
Price context
The price series for the front-month GC contract demonstrates a clear corrective regime:
- September Price Action: Gold closed at $4,453.7 on August 28, drifted lower to $4,378.6 on September 11, and closed at $4,271.5 on September 24, 2026.
- Quarterly Range: The market previously experienced a sharp rally from the July low ($3,992.4 on July 16, 2026) to an August high of $4,667.8 on August 25, 2026.
- Positioning Alignment: The ~$396/oz slide from the late-August highs directly mirrors the persistent long shedding by Managed Money accounts, confirming that September weakness is primarily driven by long liquidation rather than fresh structural shorting.
Risks and watchpoints
- Speculative Overhang Reduction: Continued liquidation of managed money longs could exert further downward pressure on front-month futures if nonreportable buyers fail to absorb supply.
- Low Gross Short Base: With managed money gross shorts at only 8,310 contracts, any macroeconomic catalyst that triggers active trend-following short initiation could accelerate downside momentum.
- Concentrated Dealer Short Book: Swap dealers maintain a massive short balance (250,752 contracts). Any sharp reversal higher could trigger dealer short-covering or delta-hedging flows, amplifying upside volatility.
- Physical/Delivery Tracking: Monitor ongoing physical delivery activity and inventory patterns via Gold Warehouse & Delivery and historical COT trends via Gold COT Stream.