Gold Futures COT Report: Week Ending 2026-05-15

Executive summary

Speculators, particularly Managed Money, increased their bullish bets on Gold during the reporting week, adding to net long positions as prices rallied. This buying was met with significant new short selling from Swap Dealers, who aggressively expanded their net short exposure. Open interest rose, indicating new capital entered the market, primarily on the short side. The classic dynamic of speculators buying into a rally while commercials sell into it was clearly evident. However, a sharp price reversal lower immediately following the May 12th position cut-off suggests these newly established speculative longs are now likely under pressure, elevating the risk of a long liquidation event.

Positioning

• Managed Money (Speculators): Net long position expanded to +98,015 contracts (127,242 long vs. 29,227 short). This is an increase from the prior week's net long of +94,254 contracts and marks the largest net long stance in the last four weeks. However, it remains well below the highs seen earlier in the year (e.g., +134,745 contracts on January 16).
• Swap Dealers: Net short position deepened significantly to -190,056 contracts (25,671 long vs. 215,727 short). This is a substantial increase in net shorts from -179,823 contracts the week prior, placing their positioning at the more bearish end of its recent range.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): Net short position was relatively stable at -20,202 contracts (11,437 long vs. 31,639 short). This is a minor increase in their net short hedge from -19,112 contracts in the prior week.

Flows and week-over-week changes

The reporting week saw a notable divergence in activity between key players: - Managed Money was the primary buyer, adding a net +3,761 contracts. This was driven by the addition of +3,889 new long positions, while shorts were almost unchanged (+128 contracts). - Swap Dealers were the primary sellers, adding a net -10,233 contracts to their short book. This was accomplished by cutting longs (-1,648 contracts) and aggressively adding new shorts (+8,585 contracts). - Producers/Merchants were modest net sellers, increasing their net short position by -1,090 contracts. This came from a reduction in both long (-1,461) and short (-371) positions. - Non-reportable (Retail) positions saw a net selling of -1,606 contracts, driven by a large reduction in shorts (-2,305).

Commercials vs speculators

The divide between commercial and speculative participants widened this week. - The combined speculative long (Managed Money + Other Reportables) stands against a large commercial short (Producers + Swap Dealers). - Swap Dealers hold the vast majority of the commercial short position, at -190,056 contracts, representing 57.3% of the total short side of the market. - Managed Money accounts for 33.8% of total longs, confirming their role as the dominant bullish speculative force. This classic positioning—informed commercials hedging against bullish speculators—is now quite extended, with Swaps taking a strong view against the recent price strength.

Open interest and participation

• Total open interest (OI) grew by +8,564 contracts to 376,496. A rise in OI during a rally is often bullish, but a closer look at the flows reveals a more nuanced picture. The increase was almost entirely absorbed by the +8,585 new short positions from Swap Dealers, suggesting the rally was fueled by speculative buying but met with strong institutional selling.
• The market remains highly concentrated, especially on the short side. The largest four traders by net position hold 34.5% of all short contracts, and the largest eight hold 46.5%. This highlights the influence of a few large players, likely Swap Dealers, in setting market direction.
• From a participation standpoint, 80 Managed Money traders are positioned long, while only 16 are short, indicating a strong consensus among this group.

Price context

The positions in this report are as of the close of business on Tuesday, May 12th. - During the reporting week (from the close on May 5th to May 12th), the front-month Gold futures price rallied from 4568.7 to 4700.0. - Speculators (Managed Money) bought into this strength, adding longs as the price increased. - Critically, in the days after these positions were recorded (May 13-15), the price fell sharply, with the May 15th close at 4524.3. This move erased the entire rally from the reporting week and more.

Risks and watchpoints

• Speculative Longs Under Pressure: The primary risk is a long liquidation cascade. Managed Money added to their net long exposure at higher prices during the reporting week. The subsequent sharp price drop from 4700.0 to 4524.3 means these new positions are now significantly unprofitable. Further weakness could force these participants to sell, accelerating the downside momentum.
• Swap Dealers Vindicated (So Far): Swap Dealers who sold heavily into the rally have been proven correct in the short term. Their willingness to continue adding to their massive short position will be a key indicator to watch. Any sign of them covering shorts could signal a near-term market bottom.
• Rising Open Interest on Short Selling: The fact that open interest rose on the back of aggressive new short-selling rather than enthusiastic new longs was a bearish divergence. This suggests conviction among sellers was higher than among buyers during the rally, a warning sign that was validated by the price action later in the week.