Gold Futures Commitments of Traders - Week Ending January 5, 2026

Executive summary

This report covers the two-week period from December 23, 2025, to January 5, 2026, a period marked by a sharp price reversal. Speculators, specifically Managed Money, significantly reduced their net long position, primarily through long liquidation, which coincided with a price drop late in the period. Commercial participants, particularly Swap Dealers, were the main counterparties, reducing their large net short position. The overall decrease in open interest suggests that the price move was driven more by the exit of bullish traders than the initiation of new bearish bets.

Positioning

• Managed Money: Net long position decreased to +126,040 contracts. This is down from +132,596 contracts as of December 23 but remains a substantial bullish stance. The gross long position stands at 148,642 contracts, while shorts are minimal at 22,602.
• Swap Dealers: Remain the largest net short holders at -220,765 contracts. However, this is a notable reduction from their -230,109 net short position two weeks prior, indicating significant short covering. They now hold 53.5% of the total short side of the market.
• Producer/Merchants: Increased their net short (hedging) position to -54,481 contracts from -44,249. This is a typical position for this category, reflecting producer hedging activity.
• Other Reportables: Remained steadily net long, with their position increasing slightly to +105,133 contracts.

Flows and week-over-week changes

The most significant changes in the latest reporting week were driven by Managed Money selling.

• Managed Money: Drove the week's activity, reducing their net long position by 10,230 contracts. This was composed of a significant liquidation of long positions (-11,939 contracts) alongside a minor reduction in short positions (-1,709 contracts).
• Swap Dealers: Acted as the primary counterparty, reducing their net short position by 11,477 contracts. This was achieved by adding 6,867 new long contracts and covering 4,610 short contracts.
• Producer/Merchants: Increased their net short position by 3,197 contracts, primarily by reducing their long exposure (-4,200 contracts) while also slightly decreasing their shorts (-1,003 contracts).
• Non-Reportable (Retail): Showed a modest increase in their net long position, adding 2,051 longs and covering 3,298 shorts.

Commercials vs Speculators

The classic dynamic of speculators (Managed Money) being net long against commercial (Producers and Swaps) net shorts was clearly visible. This week, the speculators were sellers, reducing their bullish exposure after a period of price weakness. The commercial side absorbed this selling. While Producers added to their short hedges, the more significant flow came from Swap Dealers, who aggressively covered shorts and added longs, reducing their overall net short risk.

Open Interest and Participation

• Open Interest: Total open interest fell by 10,237 contracts to 481,866. A decline in open interest alongside a price drop typically signals long liquidation rather than aggressive new short selling, which aligns perfectly with the observed reduction in Managed Money longs.
• Concentration: The market remains highly concentrated on the short side. The largest four traders hold 33.5% of the net short position, and the largest eight traders control 48.7%. This concentration is almost certainly centered within the Swap Dealer category.

Price Context

The provided price series covers the entire two-week period between the prior and latest COT reports. Gold prices initially rallied from $4499.5 on December 23 to a peak of $4540.1 on December 26. This was followed by a sharp and significant decline, with the price falling to a low of $4332.0 on December 29. The price then saw a modest recovery, closing the reporting period on January 5 at $4385.1. The substantial liquidation of 11,939 long contracts by Managed Money likely occurred during or immediately after the sharp price drop between December 26 and December 30, representing either stop-loss selling or profit-taking.

Risks and Watchpoints

• Managed Money Positioning: Despite the recent selling, the Managed Money net long position of +126,040 contracts is still very large. This represents a crowded trade that could be vulnerable to further long liquidation if prices fail to find a footing and rally, potentially putting more pressure on the market.
• Swap Dealer Activity: The significant reduction in the Swap Dealer net short position is a key development. It suggests they may be less bearish or were simply covering profitable shorts into the price decline. If they continue to cover shorts, it could provide a floor for prices; if they begin to re-establish short positions, it could signal expectations of further weakness.
• Open Interest: A rebound in price accompanied by rising open interest would be a bullish signal, indicating new capital is entering to support the rally. Conversely, further price declines on falling open interest would continue to point towards long liquidation as the primary driver.