Gasoline RBOB COT Report: Week of March 20, 2026

Executive summary

Speculative sentiment in Gasoline RBOB remains decidedly bullish, with Managed Money extending their net long position to one of the highest levels in recent months. This positioning occurred during a week of very strong price appreciation. The move was driven by both fresh long additions and continued short-covering, leaving the speculative short base at a multi-month low. Conversely, Commercials (Producers/Merchants) remain heavily net short, using the price rally to add to hedges. A significant drop in open interest alongside the price rally suggests some participants are closing out positions, a potential sign of a maturing trend.

Positioning

• Managed Money (Speculators): Net position increased to +78,523 contracts. This is up from +76,098 the prior week and is near the recent peak of +88,820 seen in late February. The position is overwhelmingly long, with outright longs (83,262) dwarfing the extremely small short position (4,739).
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): Net position stands at -89,137 contracts, a slight increase in their net short from the prior week's -88,080. This is a substantial hedge against physical product but remains below the recent peak net short position of -118,381 from late February.
• Swap Dealers: Flipped to a net short position of -5,545 contracts from a net short of -935 last week. This group often takes the other side of speculative flows, and their increased short exposure reflects the demand for long positions from other market participants.

Flows and week-over-week changes

• Managed Money: Added a net 2,425 contracts to their bullish position. This was composed of adding 1,585 new long contracts while simultaneously covering 840 short contracts, a clear bullish signal.
• Producer/Merchant: Reduced overall exposure but slightly increased their net short position by 1,057 contracts. They liquidated 6,244 long contracts and 5,187 short contracts, indicating a net reduction in overall hedging activity but a marginal increase in the bearish tilt.
• Swap Dealers: Showed the most significant bearish shift, increasing their net short position by 4,610 contracts. This was driven by a reduction in longs (-1,994) and an addition of new shorts (+2,616).

Commercials vs speculators

The classic dynamic of hedgers versus speculators is clearly at play. Managed Money holds a large net long of +78,523 contracts, providing liquidity and risk capital to the Producer/Merchant cohort, who hold an opposing net short of -89,137 contracts. - The scale of the Commercial net short position, while off its highs, signals that producers view current price levels as attractive for locking in future selling prices. - The speculative community, with a long-to-short ratio of nearly 18-to-1 (83,262 longs vs 4,739 shorts), is positioned for further upside, likely anticipating strong seasonal demand.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest: Total open interest fell significantly by 10,699 contracts to 380,579. This is a notable decline from the peak of over 469,000 contracts in early February. A rally accompanied by falling open interest can sometimes indicate the move is driven more by short-covering than aggressive new buying, and it may signal a loss of broad participation.
• Trader Counts: The conviction of the bullish speculative camp is evident in the trader counts. There are 58 "Managed Money" traders who are long-only, compared to just 8 who are short-only. On the Commercial side, there are more participants on the short side (91) than the long side (71), consistent with their net hedging position.
• Concentration: The market shows moderate concentration. The four largest traders account for 17.6% of the short side and 13.0% of the long side of the market.

Price context

The data for this report covers the period from Tuesday, March 10 to Tuesday, March 17. - During this specific reporting week, the front-month contract saw a dramatic rally. The closing price on March 13 was 2.9640 and on March 17 was 3.0348, marking a significant increase from the prices seen at the start of the period. - The bullish flows from Managed Money were consistent with this strong price appreciation, as they bought into strength. Commercials used the rally as an opportunity to increase their net short hedge book.

Risks and watchpoints

• Crowded Speculative Long: The Managed Money position is extremely one-sided. With longs outweighing shorts by a factor of nearly 18-to-1, the trade is crowded. This poses a risk of a rapid and sharp sell-off if the bullish narrative falters, as there would be a rush to exit these long positions.
• Declining Open Interest: The sharp drop in total market participation (-10,699 contracts) during a week of rising prices is a cautionary signal. It suggests momentum may be waning and the rally could be vulnerable to exhaustion. Further price gains would be more sustainable if accompanied by rising open interest.
• Commercial Selling Pressure: The large commercial net short position represents a significant wall of potential selling. Producers are likely to continue hedging and selling into any further strength, which could cap the upside potential for the market in the near term.