Gasoline RBOB Futures COT Report for week ending March 13, 2026

Executive summary

This week's report reveals a significant shift in positioning amidst extreme price volatility. Managed Money engaged in substantial profit-taking, reducing their net long position from a multi-week high by liquidating over 10,000 long contracts. This occurred as front-month futures surged to new highs before partially retracing. Concurrently, Commercials (Producer/Merchants) drastically reduced their net short exposure, primarily by adding a significant number of new long positions. This counter-intuitive move during a price spike suggests either forced covering of hedges or a fundamental need to secure physical supply. The market saw a large drop in open interest, indicating a net exit of positions and risk reduction across the board.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

• Managed Money Net Position: +76,098 contracts (81,677 long vs 5,579 short).
  • This is a decrease from last week's net long of +85,285 contracts and the recent peak of +88,820 on February 27.
  • Despite the reduction, the position remains heavily bullish and is still one of the largest net long stances in the provided historical data.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercial) Net Position: -88,080 contracts (144,579 long vs 232,659 short).
  • This represents a dramatic reduction in their net short position, which stood at -112,833 contracts last week and was as high as -118,381 on February 27. This is the smallest net short position for Commercials in the dataset provided.
• Swap Dealers Net Position: -935 contracts (37,052 long vs 37,987 short).
  • This marks a flip from their net long position of +7,983 contracts in the prior week.

Flows and week-over-week changes

The reporting week was characterized by significant long-side liquidation from speculators and new buying from commercial participants.

• Managed Money: Executed a net reduction of their bullish stance. The change was driven by a sharp cut in long positions (-10,212 contracts), alongside a minor reduction in shorts (-1,025 contracts). This is a classic profit-taking signature on a strong price rally. A massive unwinding of spread positions (-27,876 contracts) also contributed to the overall risk reduction.
• Producer/Merchant: Became significantly less bearish, reducing their net short position by 24,753 contracts. This was fueled by a surge in new long positions (+22,716 contracts) and a small trim of short hedges (-2,037 contracts).
• Swap Dealers: Shifted their positioning by adding 4,903 short contracts while simultaneously cutting 4,015 long contracts, moving from net long to net short.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic dynamic of speculators being net long against commercial net shorts persists, but the weekly flows show a fascinating divergence. While Managed Money sold into strength to realize profits, Commercials were aggressive buyers during the price surge. This atypical commercial behavior suggests they were either under-hedged for the sharp rally and forced to cover, or they have a strong forward view on demand/supply that necessitated adding length even at elevated prices. The conviction of speculators is waning at these price levels, while commercial urgency appears to be increasing.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest: Total open interest fell sharply by 22,512 contracts to 391,278. This is the lowest level in the provided dataset and a significant decline from the peak of 469,165 contracts seen in early February.
• Interpretation: The combination of falling open interest with long liquidation from the largest speculative category points to a market-wide exit of positions. This was not a week of new shorts entering the market, but rather longs closing out, likely driven by the extreme volatility and a desire to lock in gains.
• Concentration: The largest four traders control 16.6% of the short side and 11.9% of the long side. The largest eight traders control 23.5% of shorts. These figures indicate a moderate, but not extreme, level of concentration.

Price context

The price action during the reporting period (from March 6 close to March 13 close) provides critical context. The front-month contract experienced a powerful rally, closing at $2.964 on March 13, up from $2.6348 the prior Friday. Notably, the market spiked to an intra-week high of $3.0587 on March 9. The Managed Money profit-taking (-10,212 long contracts) aligns perfectly with this price spike, as funds likely used the rally above $3.00 as an opportunity to sell. The fact that Commercials were heavy buyers during this same period is the most significant takeaway.

Risks and watchpoints

• Speculative Exhaustion: The profit-taking from Managed Money could signal that the speculative buying power that drove the rally is becoming exhausted. The net long position is still very large, leaving it vulnerable to further long liquidation if prices fail to make new highs.
• Commercial Covering: The sharp reduction in the Commercial net short position is a critical development. The key question is whether this was a one-time panic covering event or the start of a new trend. If Commercials continue to reduce their short hedges, it could provide a strong underlying bid for the market.
• Falling Open Interest: The significant drop in open interest indicates that conviction is waning and participants are reducing risk. A market rising on falling participation is often a warning sign of a weakening trend, as it suggests a lack of new money to fuel further gains.