Feeder Cattle Futures COT Brief: Week Ending 2026-04-10

Executive summary

Speculative conviction in Feeder Cattle futures strengthened this week, with Managed Money extending their net long position to the highest level seen in the provided data history (dating back to December 2025). This bullish build occurred alongside an increase in total open interest, suggesting new capital is entering the market on the long side. Commercials, or Producer/Merchants, remain heavily net short, consistent with their hedging activity, though they slightly reduced their net short exposure. The market is now characterized by a historically large speculative long position pitted against significant commercial and other reportable short hedging, creating a potentially volatile setup.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

• Managed Money increased their net long position to +21,115 contracts (27,806 long vs. 6,691 short). This is the largest net long position for this category in the entire provided dataset, surpassing the previous week's +20,847 contracts.
• Producer/Merchants hold a net short position of -7,047 contracts (6,796 long vs. 13,843 short). While a substantial short, it is off the most extreme levels seen in early February (e.g., -8,662 contracts on Feb 6th).
• Swap Dealers maintain a significant net long position of +3,912 contracts (4,826 long vs. 914 short).
• Other Reportables are the largest net short group at -10,094 contracts, while Non-Reportable traders (small speculators) are also net short at -7,886 contracts.

Flows and week-over-week changes

Key changes for the week ending April 10th: - Managed Money: The move to a new record net long was driven by adding new long positions (+320 contracts) and a marginal increase in shorts (+52 contracts). This indicates a net buying of 268 contracts. - Producer/Merchants: This group saw a slight reduction in both long (-206 contracts) and short (-158 contracts) positions, leading to a minor decrease in their net short position. - Swap Dealers: Increased their net long position by adding 365 long contracts while cutting 31 short contracts. - Open Interest: Total market participation expanded, with Open Interest rising by 1,836 contracts to a total of 71,518. This increase alongside rising speculative length is a sign of new bullish interest.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic divergence between commercial hedgers and speculators is pronounced and growing: - Commercials (Producer/Merchants) are deeply net short, fulfilling their natural role of hedging future cattle sales against price declines. Their short positions (13,843 contracts) far outweigh their long positions (6,796 contracts). - Speculators (Managed Money) are aggressively positioned on the opposite side, with a net long of +21,115 contracts. Their gross long position of 27,806 contracts represents 38.9% of the entire market's open interest, underscoring their dominant bullish view. - The combined speculative length from Managed Money and Swap Dealers totals +25,027 contracts, highlighting the heavy weight of capital betting on higher prices.

Open interest and participation

• Total Open Interest stands at 71,518 contracts. This is a recovery from the late-March low of 69,682 contracts but remains well below the peak of over 79,000 contracts seen in early February. The week's increase suggests momentum may be returning to the market.
• Participation among trader categories shows 57 Managed Money traders are long versus only 18 who are short. In contrast, 94 Producer/Merchants are short-side hedgers, compared to 46 on the long side.
• Market concentration is moderate. The four largest traders account for 11.0% of net long positions and 12.3% of net short positions. This is less concentrated than in late 2025, suggesting a broader base of participation.

Price context

The provided daily price series is empty. Therefore, a direct correlation between this week's positioning changes and market price action cannot be made. However, the aggressive building of a record net long position by Managed Money strongly implies that speculative sentiment was bullish during the reporting period.

Risks and watchpoints

• Crowded Long Trade: The primary risk is the historically extended Managed Money net long position. Such crowded, one-sided positioning makes the market vulnerable to a sharp correction if the bullish narrative falters, as a rush to liquidate these longs could accelerate any downturn.
• Producer Hedging: Producer short positions remain significant. An acceleration of selling from this group could cap rallies, while a sudden decrease in their net short stance (i.e., buying back hedges) could signal a belief that the risk of lower prices is abating.
• Open Interest: Continued increases in open interest alongside further growth in speculative length would confirm the bullish trend. Conversely, a drop in open interest as longs are liquidated would be a key warning sign of a trend change.