Crude Oil WTI Futures Positioning Brief: Week Ending 2026-02-13

Executive summary

This report covers the week ending February 10, 2026. Positioning in WTI crude oil futures reveals a classic divergence between speculators and commercial hedgers. Managed Money continued to cover short positions, reducing their net bearish stance to its lowest level in over two months. This short-covering likely contributed to price strength seen during the reporting period. Conversely, Commercial participants (Producers/Merchants) aggressively added to short hedges, increasing their gross shorts by over 24,000 contracts and pushing their net position to its least bullish level in the provided data. The significant rise in open interest to a multi-week high underscores growing market participation, largely driven by this new commercial hedging activity. The market appears to be at an inflection point, with speculative short-covering meeting strong producer selling.

Positioning

• Managed Money (Speculators): Net short position decreased to -20,517 contracts from -21,802 contracts the prior week. This is the smallest net short (most bullish) position for this category in the 7-week period analyzed.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): Net long position fell sharply to +2,276 contracts, down from +15,045 contracts. This is a multi-week low for their net long exposure, indicating a significant increase in hedging activity.
• Swap Dealers: Maintained a large net short position of -92,875 contracts, a slight increase from -92,456 the week before. This group remains the largest net short holder in the market.
• Other Reportables: Increased their net long position to +111,285 contracts, the largest net long in the provided dataset.

Flows and week-over-week changes

The reporting week saw a substantial increase in overall market activity. - Managed Money: The net position change was driven by significant short-covering. Speculators cut short positions by 2,479 contracts while also slightly reducing longs by 1,194 contracts. This indicates a reduction in bearish conviction rather than an addition of fresh bullish bets. - Producer/Merchant: This category saw a massive increase in hedging activity. They added 24,362 new short contracts, while also adding 11,593 long contracts. The net effect was a bearish increase of 12,769 contracts to their net short hedge book. - Other Reportables: This group showed renewed bullishness, adding 7,949 long contracts while simultaneously cutting shorts by 3,672 contracts. - Open Interest: Total open interest surged by 28,713 contracts, reaching 852,624 contracts, the highest level in the period covered.

Commercials vs speculators

The dynamic between the core market participants highlights a clear disagreement on price direction. - Speculators (Managed Money) are reducing their outright bearish bets. While still net short, their position of -20,517 contracts is a significant reduction from the -38,718 contracts held just two weeks prior. This suggests that the recent price strength has prompted some profit-taking on short positions. - Commercials (Producer/Merchant) are using price strength as an opportunity to hedge future production. Their gross short position of 436,912 contracts is now nearly equal to their gross long position of 439,188. The sharp increase in short hedges this week suggests they view current price levels as attractive for locking in sales.

Open interest and participation

• Growing Market: The 28,713 contract rise in open interest to 852,624 contracts indicates that new capital and new positions are flowing into the market, not just a shuffling of existing positions.
• Concentration: The concentration among the largest traders remains high but stable. The top 4 largest traders by gross position hold 37.6% of the long side and 33.8% of the short side. This is broadly in line with previous weeks, suggesting no single entity is dramatically altering its market share. The total number of reporting traders was 130, a slight decrease from the prior week's 134.

Price context

The provided daily price series shows that the front-month WTI contract experienced a rally during the positioning reporting period (from Feb 6 to Feb 10). - The price closed at $62.83 on Friday, February 6th. - By Tuesday, February 10th (the "as-of" date for this COT data), the price had risen to close at $64.37. - This price increase aligns perfectly with the observed positioning changes: Managed Money covered shorts as prices rose, while Producers used the rally to add hedges. - After the positioning data was captured, prices gave back some of those gains, closing the week at $62.88 on Friday, February 13th.

Risks and watchpoints

• Speculative Squeeze vs. Commercial Wall: The key tension is whether further price gains will force the remaining -20,517 contracts of Managed Money shorts to cover, potentially fueling a sharper rally. This will be tested against the "wall of selling" from Commercials, who have shown a clear willingness to hedge aggressively at prices above $64.
• Source of New Interest: The surge in open interest driven by commercial hedging is a potentially bearish structural factor. It suggests a well-hedged producer base that may limit the upside potential of any rally.
• Managed Money Flip: A move by Managed Money from a net short to a net long position would be a significant technical signal, indicating a broader shift in speculative sentiment. This has not yet occurred, and their gross longs remain very low at just 18,177 contracts.
• Price as the Arbiter: The ~$64-$65 level appears to be a key zone. A sustained break above this level could challenge the resolve of commercial hedgers and accelerate short-covering. Failure to hold gains will likely embolden bears and validate the recent producer hedging.