Crude Oil WTI - Commitments of Traders Brief for the week of February 6, 2026

Executive summary

This week's report reveals a significant bullish shift among speculators, even as front-month prices experienced a pullback from recent highs. Managed Money executed a major reduction in their net short position, driven by both aggressive new long additions and substantial short-covering. This buying occurred into price weakness, suggesting that funds view the recent dip as a buying opportunity. In contrast, Commercials (Producers/Merchants) increased their short hedges, reducing their net long exposure and acting as a counterweight to the speculative buying. Open interest rose, indicating new capital entered the market during this period of divergent activity.

Positioning

• Managed Money: Net position now stands at -21,802 contracts (19,371 long vs 41,173 short). This is a dramatic reduction in their net short exposure and represents the least bearish positioning for this category over the past six weeks of data.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): Net position is +15,045 contracts (427,595 long vs 412,550 short). This is a decrease from the prior week (+21,914) and sits near the lower end of their net long positioning over the observed period.
• Swap Dealers: Remain heavily net short at -92,456 contracts (4,366 long vs 96,822 short). This position is near its most bearish level in the last six weeks, reflecting their role as liquidity providers, likely taking the other side of commercial hedging interest.

Flows and week-over-week changes

The most significant activity this week came from the Managed Money category.

• Managed Money: A large bullish flow was observed. Gross longs surged by +12,587 contracts while gross shorts were cut by -4,329 contracts. This combined action led to a +16,916 contract increase in their net position.
• Producer/Merchant: Exhibited a bearish flow, increasing their net short hedges. They added +9,050 long contracts but added a much larger +15,919 short contracts, resulting in a -6,869 contract decrease to their net long position.
• Swap Dealers: Had a relatively minor change, with longs increasing by +1,203 and shorts increasing by +837. This slightly reduced their net short position by 366 contracts.

Commercials vs speculators

A classic divergence is evident this week. * Speculators (Managed Money) aggressively bought into the market, significantly reducing their overall bearish stance. The addition of over 12k new long contracts is a particularly strong signal of renewed bullish conviction. * Commercials (Producers/Merchants) used the price environment to add hedges. The increase of nearly 16k short contracts suggests they are actively locking in prices for future production, providing supply to the futures market and potentially capping near-term price rallies. * This dynamic places speculative buyers directly against commercial sellers, a fundamental tension that will likely dictate near-term price direction.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest: Total open interest increased by 16,227 contracts to 823,911. The rise in OI alongside the strong buying from Managed Money suggests that this was not just position shuffling but involved new capital entering the market to establish long positions.
• Concentration: The market shows a notable level of concentration. The largest four traders control 32.6% of the net long side and 26.4% of the net short side. The largest eight traders control 44.1% and 36.9% respectively. These figures have increased slightly over the past month.

Price context

The price series provides critical context for this week's positioning shifts. The COT data was collected as of Tuesday, February 3rd. * In the week prior to the report, WTI prices peaked at a multi-week high of $65.54 on January 30th. * However, by the reporting date of February 3rd, the price had pulled back to $61.93. * The aggressive buying from Managed Money occurred directly into this price decline. This behavior indicates that speculators were not chasing momentum but were actively buying what they perceived as value on the dip. * By the end of the week (February 6th), the price had settled at $62.83, off the week's lows but still well below the prior week's peak.

Risks and watchpoints

• Speculative Buying vs. Producer Selling: The primary dynamic to watch is whether the renewed speculative buying can overwhelm the increased hedging pressure from producers. If the Managed Money trend continues towards a flat or net long position, it could fuel a significant price rally.
• Potential for a Short Squeeze: While Managed Money is still net short overall, the rapid reduction in this position (-21,802 from -38,718 in one week) makes the remaining shorts vulnerable. Further price strength could force more short-covering, accelerating any upward move.
• Price Confirmation: The bullish shift in sentiment from speculators has not yet been fully confirmed by price action, which remained below the prior week's high. A sustained move above the $63-$64 level would lend more credence to the bullish case indicated by fund flows. A failure to hold the week's lows could suggest the producer selling is the more dominant force.