Takeaway

The presenter argues that natural gas, gold, and silver remain biased to the downside despite oversold readings, advising traders to sell pullbacks or await confirmed pattern failures before entering. Conversely, crude oil is viewed as technically and fundamentally bullish—boosted by reports that Iran refused peace deal talks—with expectations for a push toward higher resistance.

What the presenter said

• Natural Gas: RSI is heavily oversold as prices drop without pullbacks, but solid bearish momentum means a reversal is unlikely over the next couple of days [00:26, 01:31]. The presenter expects any relief rallies toward resistance between 2.931 and 3.00 to fail and trigger renewed selling [02:07, 02:15]. A trendline bounce requires a strict bullish engulfing candle with a long wick, though the presenter doubts the trendline will hold and notes lower support levels exist on other feeds [01:52, 03:24, 04:42]. A weekend gap-down remains possible [04:58].
• Silver: Price is approaching a potential double-bottom structure [08:17]. Confirmation requires price to sweep lower and close back up as a bullish engulfing candle with a wick below [08:20]. A candle body close below the current low completely invalidates the setup and points to lower support [08:40].
• Gold: Price is poised to test lower support; confirmation of downside continuation requires a candle body (not merely a wick) to close below current support [09:22, 09:27].
• Crude Oil: Technically bullish and heavily supported by geopolitical headlines, specifically news that Iran has refused peace deal talks, pointing to further sharp upside [10:38, 10:43].

Trade ideas

• Crude Oil (NYMEX) — Long
  • Thesis: Upside breakout supported by technical structure and Iran geopolitical tensions.
  • Entry: Break above the current high (around 101.30) followed by a pullback and bullish engulfing candle.
  • Target: 106.31–109.77 resistance zone.
  • Stop: Not specified.
  • Horizon / Conviction: Short-term; High conviction.
• Natural Gas (NYMEX) — Short
  • Thesis: Trend continuation sell on a pullback into overhead resistance.
  • Entry: 2.931–3.00 on bearish engulfing candles or a double top.
  • Target: Not specified.
  • Stop: Not specified.
  • Horizon / Conviction: Short-term; Medium conviction.
• Natural Gas (NYMEX) — Long
  • Thesis: Mean-reversion long from major lower support.
  • Entry: Around 2.400 upon appearance of a solid bullish engulfing candle.
  • Target: 1 ATR.
  • Stop: Not specified.
  • Horizon / Conviction: Short-term; Medium conviction.
• Natural Gas (Capital.com) — Short
  • Thesis: Breakdown below minor support or shorting a pullback to resistance.
  • Entry: Break below ~3.147 with a pullback and engulfing candle, or on retest of higher resistance.
  • Target / Stop: Not specified.
  • Horizon / Conviction: Short-term; Medium conviction.
• Natural Gas (Oanda) — Long
  • Thesis: Long entry at major trendline support.
  • Entry: 2.628–2.738 zone with confirmed entry condition.
  • Target / Stop: Not specified.
  • Horizon / Conviction: Short-term; Medium conviction.
• Natural Gas (MCX) — Short
  • Thesis: Retest of a broken trendline.
  • Entry: Pullback to trendline retest with a bearish engulfing candle.
  • Target: 229.4–247.1 support zone.
  • Stop: Not specified.
  • Horizon / Conviction: Short-term; Medium conviction.
• Silver (XAGUSD) — Long
  • Thesis: Double-bottom reversal at support.
  • Entry: Valid double bottom confirmation at 55.819–58.000 (candle sweeping low and closing as bullish engulfing).
  • Target / Stop: Not specified.
  • Horizon / Conviction: Short-term; Medium conviction.
• Silver (XAGUSD) — Short
  • Thesis: Trend continuation lower upon support failure.
  • Entry: Pullback after candle body closes below the current low.
  • Target: 53.69–54.99 support zone.
  • Stop: Not specified.
  • Horizon / Conviction: Short-term; Medium conviction.
• Gold (XAUUSD) — Short
  • Thesis: Breakdown through immediate support zone.
  • Entry: Clear break below 4,088.77–4,185.839 with a pullback and bearish engulfing candle.
  • Target: 3,808.000–3,980.000 support zone.
  • Stop: Not specified.
  • Horizon / Conviction: Short-term; Medium conviction.

Levels and data cited

• Natural Gas (NYMEX): Resistance at 2.931 to 3.00.
• Natural Gas (Capital.com): Support zone at 2.628 to 2.738.
• Natural Gas (MCX): Support zone at 229.4 to 247.1.
• Gold (XAUUSD): Current support zone at 4,088.77 to 4,185.839; lower support target at 3,808.000 to 3,980.000.
• Silver (XAGUSD): Current support zone at 55.819 to 58.000; lower support zone at 53.69 to 54.99.
• Crude Oil (NYMEX): Resistance zone at 106.31 to 109.77.
• External Data/News: News report indicating Iran "refused to talk" regarding a peace deal.

Risks and what would invalidate this

• Entering setups blindly without strict price action confirmation (e.g., engulfing candles, pullback validations).
• In silver, a candle body closing below the current low invalidates the double-bottom long thesis.