Takeaway

The presenter argues that copper is on the verge of a technical breakdown, currently testing a 14-month support band in the "6.33 to 6.23 zone" alongside pullbacks in gold and silver. A confirmed breach below "6.23" invalidates the existing bullish structure and threatens a slide toward deeper Fibonacci support at "5.94", "5.63", and "5.3". Conversely, bulls must force a sustainable breakout above the year's highs at "6.9 to 7" to re-establish upside momentum toward "8".

What the presenter said

• Copper is testing a 14-month support band as the broader precious and industrial metals complex faces drawdowns [00:03].
• A bearish divergence between monthly RSI and price action spanning 2021 to 2026 warns of an extended, multi-month pullback [00:15].
• The current pullback is testing an uptrending support connecting higher lows from August 2025, March 2026, and October 2026 near "6.38" [00:46].
• The "6.38" level aligns with a 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025 to September 2026 move, spanning the "6.33 to 6.23 zone" [01:07].
• A breakdown below "6.23" exposes subsequent retracement targets at "5.94" (38.2%), "5.63" (50%), and the golden ratio at the "5.3 mark" (61.8%) [01:28].
• The "5.3 mark" represents major structural support, intersecting the lower boundary of a contracting pattern in place since 2017 and an uptrend line from 2020 [01:45].
• A sustainable break below "5.3" would pivot copper into a long-term bearish regime [02:08].
• Clearing resistance at the "6.9 to 7 mark" is required to confirm a long-term bullish continuation toward "7.34", "7.7", and "8", supported by secular AI demand [02:16].
• Daily charts display a potential diamond reversal pattern and a bearish RSI breakdown below the 50 level [02:43].
• Confirmation of further downside requires price action to decisively break below the pattern's lower bound and multi-year trendline below "6.3" [03:08].
• The "6.23 mark" serves as the final invalidation point for copper's short-term bullish structure [03:31].

Trade ideas

• Copper (Short Breakdown): Direction: Short. Entry: On a confirmed breakdown below "6.23 or 6.3". Targets: "5.94", "5.63", and "5.3". Stop: None stated. Horizon: Short-term. Conviction: Medium. Thesis: Diamond reversal pattern and daily RSI breakdown below 50 confirm loss of the 14-month trend.
• Copper (Long Breakout): Direction: Long. Entry: Sustainable breakout above "6.9 to 7". Targets: "7.34", "7.7", and "8". Stop: None stated. Horizon: Long-term. Conviction: Medium. Thesis: Breakout clears multi-year resistance, turning it into support amid AI-driven demand.
• Copper (Support Dip Buy): Direction: Neutral / Long. Entry: Near the "5.3 mark" if support holds. Targets: None stated. Stop: None stated. Horizon: Unspecified. Conviction: Medium. Thesis: Convergence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 2020 trendline, and 2017 contracting formation boundary offers an asymmetric entry.

Levels and data cited

• Support levels: "14-month support", "2026 lows", "6.38", "6.33 to 6.23 zone" (27.2% Fib), "6.3" (diamond pattern lower bound), "6.23" (structural invalidation), "5.94" (38.2% Fib), "5.63" (50% Fib), "5.3" (61.8% Fib / 2017 contracting boundary).
• Resistance / Target levels: "6.9 to 7" (2026 highs), "7.34", "7.7", "8".
• External data / Technical metrics: Monthly RSI bearish divergence (2021–2026); daily RSI breakdown below 50.

Risks and what would invalidate this

• A break below "6.23" invalidates the short-term bullish market structure.
• A price drop below "6.3" provides immediate confirmation of the diamond top reversal and exposes lower Fibonacci levels.
• A sustained violation of the "5.3 mark" invalidates the secular bullish trend and shifts the long-term outlook to outright bearish.