Takeaway

The presenter maintains a bearish near-term bias on natural gas and precious metals, favoring short plays or waiting for deeper pullbacks into major support zones before considering longs. Conversely, crude oil remains in a structural bull trend supported by geopolitical tensions with Iran, with the presenter targeting major resistance between $106.31 and $109.77 on pullbacks.

What the presenter said

• Natural gas has broken below trendline support and is heading toward a major demand zone last respected in 2020 [02:00, 02:09].
• A minor scalp bounce may develop at the Capital.com trendline on a bullish engulfing print, but the presenter warns this would likely be followed by another leg lower [03:27].
• Natural gas RSI is oversold; however, unless any corrective bounce clears the 50 EMA, expect further downside [04:08, 04:30].
• On NYMEX, a pullback to the broken trendline followed by a bearish engulfing candle signals an actionable short setup; the presenter is currently more interested in shorting natural gas than buying [04:50, 06:41].
• For MCX Natural Gas, a descending triangle breakdown points toward a major long-term trendline support zone [06:06].
• A potential double bottom is developing in the gold/silver ratio [07:00].
• The bias for both gold and silver remains directed downward until prices reach defined support/buying zones [07:15, 07:41, 08:14].
• Light crude oil requires a break above recent swing highs and wicks to trigger fresh momentum longs, with the ongoing Iran conflict viewed as a long-term bullish catalyst [08:27, 09:04].
• A swing low engulfing candle printing directly above the 50 EMA represents the primary entry trigger for crude oil longs [09:11].

Trade ideas

• Natural Gas Futures | Direction: Long | Entry: Bullish engulfing candle at trendline | Target/Stop: Not stated | Horizon: Intraday | Conviction: Low
• Natural Gas Futures | Direction: Long | Entry: 2.48–2.617 (NYMEX), 2.527–2.625 (OANDA), or 240–260 (MCX) on a valid engulfing candle or double bottom | Target/Stop: Not stated | Horizon: Medium-term | Conviction: Medium
• Natural Gas Futures | Direction: Short | Entry: On a bearish engulfing candle following a retest of the broken minor trendline | Target/Stop: Not stated | Horizon: Short-term | Conviction: Medium
• Silver (XAGUSD) | Direction: Long | Entry: 53.69–55.54 support zone on confirmed reversal (e.g., double bottom) | Target/Stop: Not stated | Horizon: Medium-term | Conviction: Medium
• Gold (XAUUSD) | Direction: Long | Entry: 3914–3974.28 support zone on confirmed entry condition | Target/Stop: Not stated | Horizon: Medium-term | Conviction: Medium
• Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1!) | Direction: Long | Entry: Swing low engulfing candle above the 50 EMA, or a breakout above recent highs followed by a retest | Target: 106.31–109.77 | Stop: Not stated | Horizon: Long-term | Conviction: High

Levels and data cited

• Natural Gas (NYMEX): Support at $2.48 to $2.617
• Natural Gas (OANDA): Support at $2.527 to $2.625
• Natural Gas (MCX): Long-term support at 240 to 260
• Silver: Support buying range at $53.69 to $55.54
• Gold: Support buying range at $3914 to $3974.28
• Crude Oil: Resistance target range at $106.31 to $109.77

Risks and what would invalidate this

• For crude oil, the presenter notes that taking short positions is invalidated and avoided as long as price action remains above the 20 EMA and 50 EMA.