Takeaway

The presenter maintains a bearish tactical bias on Natural Gas, looking to short pullbacks into key trendline supports, while reserving counter-trend longs only for confirmed reversal patterns at these levels. Precious metals (Gold and Silver) are expected to face renewed downside pressure based on a retest in the Gold/Silver ratio, while NYMEX Crude Oil remains in an uptrend where the analyst is exclusively looking to buy dips into the 50 EMA.

What the presenter said

• Natural Gas: Pushed down as predicted following a bearish engulfing pattern, yielding >1 ATR for aggressive traders [00:24, 00:48]. The presenter prefers shorting pullbacks as price targets major trendline supports, though valid reversal patterns (engulfing candles or double bottoms) could yield temporary bounces [01:38, 01:50, 02:26]. Price must close above the 50 EMA to flip fully bullish [03:23].
• Gold & Silver: The Gold/Silver ratio broke above its structural support and is retesting it; an inverse bounce here points to further downside across Gold and Silver [05:20, 05:24, 05:42]. Gold remains range-bound with a bearish tilt [06:15, 06:28]. For Silver, the presenter anticipates rejection off the 50 EMA down to support, unless cleared by two consecutive green candles [06:55, 07:02].
• Crude Oil: Price achieved its previous pullback upside target [07:08]. After posting fresh highs, the presenter expects a corrective pullback toward the 50 EMA before resuming the bull trend toward major resistance [08:04, 08:23].

Trade ideas

• Natural Gas (OANDA)
  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: Sell pullbacks toward the trendline support.
  • Entry/Target/Stop: Not specified
  • Horizon: Short term | Conviction: Medium
• Natural Gas (Capital.com)
  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: Counter-trend bounce if a bullish engulfing candle or double bottom confirms at trendline support.
  • Entry/Target/Stop: Entry on pattern confirmation at support; target/stop not specified.
  • Horizon: Short term | Conviction: Medium
• Natural Gas (MCX)
  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: Long on a bullish engulfing candle at structure support, targeting the 50 EMA.
  • Entry/Target/Stop: Entry at structure support; target 50 EMA; stop not specified.
  • Horizon: Short term | Conviction: Medium
• Natural Gas (MCX)
  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: Sell if a bearish engulfing pattern prints below the 50 EMA.
  • Entry/Target/Stop: Entry below 50 EMA; target/stop not specified.
  • Horizon: Short term | Conviction: Medium
• Gold (OANDA)
  • Direction: Short
  • Thesis: Short on an exhaustion push into overhead resistance.
  • Entry/Target/Stop: Entry at resistance; target/stop not specified.
  • Horizon: Unspecified | Conviction: Medium
• Gold (OANDA)
  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: Buy dip if price extends lower into the primary support band.
  • Entry/Target/Stop: Entry at major support; target/stop not specified.
  • Horizon: Unspecified | Conviction: Medium
• Crude Oil (NYMEX)
  • Direction: Long
  • Thesis: Trend continuation buy following a retracement to the 50 EMA confirmed by a bullish engulfing candle.
  • Entry/Target/Stop: Entry on bullish engulfing candle above 50 EMA; target major resistance; stop not specified.
  • Horizon: Unspecified | Conviction: Medium

Levels and data cited

• Natural Gas (OANDA): Support at 2.818 (current trendline support); support at 2.749 (major weekly trendline support).
• Natural Gas (Capital.com): Support at 2.881 (trendline support); support at 2.703 (next major support).
• Natural Gas (MCX): Support at 283.0 (structure support); support at 270.0 (next major support).
• Gold/Silver Ratio (OANDA): Support at 70.908 (previous structure support).
• Gold (OANDA): Resistance at 4,269.881; support at 3,930.000 (next major support area).
• Silver (OANDA): Support at 55.00000.
• Crude Oil (NYMEX): Resistance at 109.00 (next major resistance level).

Risks and what would invalidate this

• A disproportionately large bearish engulfing candle would have invalidated the trade entry.
• The previous pullback in Crude Oil was shallow, indicating heightened execution risk.