Takeaway

The presenter argues that EUR/USD has suffered a significant technical breakdown, keeping the broader trend bearish while spot trades below 1.1355 despite a recent bounce off major multi-year support. Monthly momentum has turned bearish for the first time in over a year, leaving the pair vulnerable to further downside once near-term consolidation clears. Upcoming Eurozone and U.S. macro data later in the week are seen as the primary catalysts for the next directional leg.

What the presenter said

• The multi-year pitchfork median line originating from the 2022 lows broke and closed lower last month [00:30].
• Monthly momentum (RSI) has broken below 50 for the first time since January/February of last year [01:07].
• Price is currently responding to a major pivotal support zone after snapping a five-week losing streak last week [01:25, 01:53].
• The broader bias remains bearish while spot holds below 1.1355 [03:51].
• A breach above 1.1275 would be required to suggest an active near-term recovery [03:00].
• A close below 1.1110 would confirm the next major leg of the decline [04:35].
• Eurozone consumer confidence on Thursday and flash PMIs from both the Eurozone and the U.S. on Friday present high-impact event risks [05:00].

Trade ideas

None stated. The presenter did not put forward any specific actionable trade ideas, maintaining a neutral-to-bearish tactical view that frames current upside as a relief rally within a wider downtrend capped by 1.1355.

Levels and data cited

Price Levels: * 1.1360 (Resistance): June low day close and median line convergence early next week. * 1.1355 (Resistance/Key Level): 38.2% retracement from 2015 lows; broader trend ceiling. * 1.1275 (Resistance): 2023 swing high; level needed to breach to confirm a near-term recovery. * 1.1156 (Support): Initial support and low day close for the year established last week. * 1.1111–1.1130 (Support): 50% retracement of last year's zone, marking where the recent low registered. * 1.1110 (Support): 38.2% retracement of the broader 2022 advance; a daily close below triggers a deeper decline. * 1.1032 (Downside Target): 2020 low month reversal close; initial downside target on breakdown.

Data References: * Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Thursday, October 22): Expected to deteriorate further. * Eurozone Manufacturing & Services PMIs (Friday, October 23). * U.S. Manufacturing & Services PMIs (Friday, October 23).

Risks and what would invalidate this

• Political unrest in France and widening French-German government bond yield spreads, which are adding volatility to the euro.
• High-impact macro releases (Eurozone consumer confidence and U.S./Eurozone PMIs) that could invalidate technical levels or trigger sudden momentum shifts.