Takeaway
The presenter argues that near-term cocoa supply has shifted into an unexpected stock-building dynamic following stronger-than-anticipated 2025/2026 harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana alongside fragile demand recovery. However, while prices have retreated from 2024/2025 record highs, persistent market anxiety over the upcoming 2026/2027 crop continues to inject volatility and keep prices elevated above historical benchmarks.
What the presenter said
- [00:00] The 2025/2026 harvest concluded in August with a significant and surprising stock-building scenario.
- [00:11] The inventory build was primarily the result of better-than-expected production in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
- [00:16] Physical demand continues to show fragility and remains in a recovery phase.
- [00:28] Improved short-term availability has driven prices down from the record highs established in 2024 and 2025.
- [00:49] Market participants remain apprehensive and are closely watching how the next crop develops.
- [01:00] The upcoming 2026/2027 harvest in Ivory Coast and Ghana remains the central driver of ongoing market volatility.
- [01:09] Despite the correction from recent cycle highs, flat prices remain elevated compared to historical averages.
Trade ideas
None stated. The presenter did not put forward any actionable trades, outlining instead a mixed fundamental picture where short-term physical replenishment contrasts with lingering forward supply uncertainty.
Levels and data cited
- Cocoa historical average: "$5,000-$6,000 per ton"