Takeaway

The presenter reports that early October dry weather allowed Midwest harvest pace to rebound rapidly following wet September conditions, revealing surprisingly strong corn and soybean yields in Northwest Iowa that rival 2025 record levels. Across the broader Corn Belt, soybean yields are generally holding at or above historical averages, whereas corn results are mixed—running well above trend in Iowa but dipping below actual production history (APH) in parts of Central Illinois.

What the presenter said

• Dry conditions in early October enabled producers to accelerate field operations after heavy September rain delays [00:00].
• In Northwest Iowa, Matt McCarthy is harvesting corn and soybean yields comparable to the record levels seen in 2025 [00:13].
• McCarthy's farm received nearly 10 inches of rain in September, which added test weight to late-maturing corn [00:37].
• McCarthy reported corn yields 15 to 20 bushels above his farm APH, with the bulk cutting between 225 and 240 bushels per acre [00:47].
• Late-maturing hybrids pollinated after July's heat and dryness and caught late moisture, whereas early hybrids showed tip back due to pollination stress [01:12].
• Solid yields were supported by split nitrogen applications, fungicide use, crop consistency, and a notable absence of Southern rust [01:32].
• Ear molds and mild stalk standability issues have emerged post-rains, requiring a prompt harvest [01:51].
• Corn moisture was cited at 15.5% to 15.8% for 106-day corn and 17% to 18% for 113-day corn; producers want to avoid letting it fall below 15% to prevent water weight loss [02:00].
• Soybean quality defects include white mold, purple seed stain, and sprouting in the pod, though elevators have not issued rejections [02:24].
• Late-maturing soybeans benefited from the September moisture more than they were damaged by it [02:40].
• McCarthy's soybean yields are landing between 65 and 80 to 85 bushels per acre, matching year-ago highs and offsetting high input costs [02:47, 03:09].
• In Mankato, MN, Chris Schenk finished soybean harvest 10% above his 62 bu/acre farm average, with heat and wind accelerating corn dry-down [03:27].
• In Maroa, IL, Cody White noted harvest is running fast with beans finishing up, though corn yields are coming in below farm APH [03:41].
• In Carthage, IL, Chris Harrell reported soybean yields slightly above the five-year average, while corn yields are lower year-over-year despite stronger May-planted performance [03:53].
• In Percival, IA, Pat Sheldon logged 500 acres of corn harvested with good yields across both corn and beans, though rain continues to cause delays [04:07].
• In Cresco, IA, Derrick Burnikel reported promising soybean yields and better-than-expected corn yields testing below 20% moisture [04:21].

Trade ideas

None stated. The presenter put forward no actionable trade recommendations, focusing strictly on regional harvest progress, yield checks, and crop quality observations.

Levels and data cited

• Matt McCarthy (Newell, IA):
  • September rainfall: "nearly 10 inches"
  • Corn yields: "225 to 240 bushels" per acre ("15 to 20 bushels" above farm APH)
  • Corn moisture: "15.5, 15.8%" (106-day hybrid); "17, 18%" (113-day hybrid)
  • Soybean yields: "65 to 80-85 bushels" per acre
• Chris Schenk (Mankato, MN):
  • Soybean yields: "10% above average"
  • Baseline farm average soybean yield: "62 bushels per acre"
• Pat Sheldon (Percival, IA):
  • Corn harvested: "500 acres"

Risks and what would invalidate this

• Ear molds developing in corn stands as a result of wet September weather.
• Mild standability and lodging issues threatening harvest efficiency.
• Revenue drag from giving up grain water weight if corn is harvested below 15% moisture.
• Soybean quality discounts or grading issues linked to white mold, purple beans, and sprouting in the pod.
• Further localized rain events slowing harvest pace.