Takeaway

The presenter argues that AUD/USD is rebounding off major confluence support, keeping its broader 2025 uptrend intact after snapping its September downtrend line. However, the recovery hinges on clearing key resistance at 0.7008 and 0.7032 to confirm a durable bottom, while a failure to hold 0.6946 would derail the bounce ahead of critical US inflation and Australian jobs prints.

What the presenter said

• AUD/USD is rebounding off a major support zone, keeping its 2025 uptrend intact on the weekly chart [00:13].
• The four-week decline of nearly 4.6% from August highs is poised for a second weekly advance [00:35].
• Spot responded to confluence support at the June low-week reversal close of 0.6938, which aligns with the 52-week moving average [00:40].
• The pair remains in a broader consolidation pattern off the year's highs, defined by lower highs and higher lows [00:53].
• Last Friday, AUD/USD broke and closed above the September downtrend slope [01:23], which was successfully defended as support earlier this week [01:30].
• Initial resistance sits at 0.7008 (the 61.8% retracement of the broader June advance) [01:46], with momentum attempting to cross above the 50 level into positive territory [02:06]. A daily close above both would fuel a further bullish push [02:12].
• For the upside to remain viable, pullbacks must be contained by the October monthly open at 0.6946 [01:37, 02:45].
• A close above 0.7032 (38.2% retracement of the drop from September highs) would confirm a more durable low and a larger reversal [02:53, 03:00], with the 200-day moving average overhead near 0.7039 [03:07].
• Breaking below 0.6946 invalidates the near-term uptrend [03:33]. For bears to regain control, price must take out the 88.6% retracement at 0.6908 [03:39], which would break the consolidation trend from the March/June lows and open the door to a much larger decline [03:49].
• Macro event risk is heavy: US headline CPI is expected at 3.6% (vs. 3.4% prior) with core at 2.5% (vs. 2.4% prior) [04:05], Australian employment is projected to add 20,000 jobs with unemployment holding at 4.6% [04:25], and US PPI is expected to soften to 4.4% from 4.6% [04:36].
• Fed fund futures are pricing an 80% probability of an on-hold decision this month, but an 88% chance of at least 25 bps in additional tightening by year-end [04:52].

Trade ideas

None stated. The presenter did not put forward an explicit trade structure, framing the setup instead around key pivot levels: long-bias continuation requires holding 0.6946 and clearing 0.7032, whereas a break below 0.6908 favors a broader short positioning.

Levels and data cited

Price levels (AUD/USD): * 0.6908: Support (88.6% retracement; structural bear trigger) * 0.6938: Support (June low-week reversal close and 52-week moving average) * 0.6946: Support (October monthly open and former slope resistance turned support) * 0.7008: Resistance (61.8% retracement of June advance) * 0.7032: Resistance (38.2% retracement of September decline; confirmation level for durable low) * 0.7039: Resistance (200-day moving average) * 0.7072: Upside target (161.8% extension off the low) * 0.7079: Upside target (May low pivot) * 0.7110: Subsequent resistance (61.8% retracement of the decline)

Data referenced: * US CPI Y/Y: Expected 3.6% (prior 3.4%); Core CPI Y/Y: Expected 2.5% (prior 2.4%); M/M expected to tail off * Australia Employment: Expected +20,000 jobs; Unemployment Rate expected at 4.6% * US PPI Y/Y: Expected to tail off from 4.6% to 4.4% * Fed Funds Futures: 80% chance of a hold this month; 88% chance of ≥25 bps hikes by year-end

Risks and what would invalidate this

• A break below 0.6946 invalidates the near-term bullish recovery structure.
• A decisive break below the 0.6908 level validates a structural breakdown of the consolidation trendline dating back to March and June lows, exposing the pair to a significantly deeper drop.