Takeaway

The presenter reports that early corn and soybean harvest yields across Northwest Iowa, Minnesota, and Illinois are coming in surprisingly strong, tracking near or above historical averages and matching last year's record levels despite mid-season weather stress. While heavy September moisture triggered localized quality issues such as white mold, purple seed stain, and ear molds, rapid field drydown is accelerating harvest pace with no processor discounts reported to date.

What the presenter said

• [00:01] Dry conditions over the past week allowed producers to significantly accelerate harvest progress following September rain delays.
• [00:15] Farmers across Northwest Iowa are reporting corn and soybean yields on par with last year’s record harvest.
• [00:25] Matt McCarthy (Newell, IA) noted he had anticipated a smaller crop due to moisture stress during a dry July and low August precipitation.
• [00:37] McCarthy’s operation received nearly 10 inches of rain in September, which provided late yield support but introduced quality challenges.
• [00:48] Soybean quality issues have emerged—including white mold, purple beans, and sprouting in the pod—though loads have not faced processor rejections.
• [01:04] McCarthy is delivering soybeans directly to a local crush facility without incurring quality discounts.
• [01:21] Soybean yields on McCarthy's farm are running between 65 and 85 bushels per acre, mirroring last year's record output.
• [01:48] McCarthy's corn yields are matching prior record levels, coming in 15 to 20 bushels above his farm APH.
• [01:59] The bulk of corn yields are averaging between 225 and 240 bushels per acre, with potential upside in later-maturing fields.
• [02:15] Later corn hybrids avoided early heat and pollination dryness, benefiting heavily from September rainfall, whereas earlier hybrids exhibited more tip back.
• [02:35] An absence of Southern rust contributed to higher crop consistency, compensating for lower kernel counts versus last year.
• [02:52] Ear molds have started appearing in corn stands as a result of excessive September precipitation.
• [02:58] Operators are focused on taking crops off rapidly due to mild standability concerns and rapid drydown driven by warm, windy weather.
• [03:01] Corn moisture is declining rapidly: 106-day maturities are testing at 15.5% to 15.8%, while 113-day maturities are at 17% to 18%.
• [03:15] Farm-level optimism regarding operating margins is noticeably higher compared to last autumn.
• [03:28] Chris Schenk (Mankato, MN) finished soybean cutting at 10% above his 62 bu/acre farm average and transitioned to corn amid rapid field drying.
• [03:42] Cody White (Maroa, IL) reported rapid harvest progress with area beans wrapping up, though local corn yields are falling below APH.
• [03:54] Chris Harrell (Carthage, IL) finished soybean harvest above average, noting that while overall corn yields are below last year, May-planted acreage performed well.
• [04:08] Pat Sheldon (Percival, IA) harvested 500 acres of corn before pivoting to soybeans, noting solid yields on both crops despite rain delays.
• [04:22] Derrick Burnikel (Cresco, IA) reported solid progress with soybean yields looking promising, corn yields topping expectations, and corn moisture falling below 20%.

Trade ideas

None stated. No actionable trade was put forward. The presenter's underlying view is that early harvest returns in key Western Corn Belt pockets are running better than expected, pointing to resilient supply despite localized quality defects.

Levels and data cited

• Matt McCarthy (Newell, IA):
  • Soybean yields: "65 to 80 to 85" bu/acre
  • Corn yields: "225 to 240" bu/acre
  • Corn yields vs. baseline: "15 to 20 bushels above his farm APH"
  • September precipitation: "nearly 10 inches"
• Chris Schenk (Mankato, MN):
  • Soybean yields: "10% above his farm average of 62 bushels per acre"
• Chris Harrell (Carthage, IL):
  • Soybean yields: "slightly higher than his five-year average"
• Pat Sheldon (Percival, IA):
  • Corn harvest progress: "500 acres"
• Derrick Burnikel (Cresco, IA):
  • Corn moisture: "under 20%"

Risks and what would invalidate this

• Spread of white mold, purple seed stain, and in-pod sprouting in soybeans.
• Proliferation of ear molds in standing corn caused by wet late-season conditions.
• Mild standability and lodging issues forcing harvest slowdowns.
• Additional rainfall events halting harvest pace.