Takeaway

Midwest harvest reports indicate resilient corn and soybean yields tracking near or slightly above historical averages, with Northwest Iowa producers reporting output matching last year's records despite July dryness and a wet September. While early localized reports from parts of Illinois show corn lagging historical APH, soybean yields across Iowa, Minnesota, and Illinois are consistently beating or matching five-year trends. The market impact centers on strong supply realization despite localized quality defects, supported by rapid grain drydown during recent clear weather.

What the presenter said

• Dry weather accelerated harvest progress following prior rain delays across key growing regions [00:01].
• In Northwest Iowa (Newell), Matt McCarthy reports corn and soybean yields are matching last year's record levels despite mid-season dryness [00:22], [01:41].
• Nearly 10 inches of rain hit McCarthy's farm in September, creating soybean quality issues including white mold, purple beans, and pod sprouting, though no processor rejections or quality discounts have occurred at local crush plants [00:39], [00:48], [01:04].
• McCarthy's soybean yields are coming in at 65 to 85 bpa, boosted overall by the late September rains [01:17], [01:21].
• Corn yields for McCarthy are running 15 to 20 bpa above his farm APH at 225 to 240 bpa, aided by the absence of Southern rust and stronger performance in later-maturing hybrids that pollinated after July heat [01:49], [01:59], [02:16], [02:37].
• Rapid corn drydown is noted in Iowa, with 106-day corn hand-shelling at 15.5%–15.8% moisture and 113-day corn at 17%–18% moisture [03:06].
• In Mankato, MN, Chris Schenk finished soybean harvest with yields roughly 10% above his 62 bpa farm average, while corn is drying down quickly amid heat and wind [03:30], [03:37].
• Regional divergence appears in Illinois: Cody White (Maroa, IL) reports corn yields below APH [03:51], while Chris Harrell (Carthage, IL) wrapped soybeans above his five-year average, with May-planted corn outperforming earlier seedings despite overall lower year-over-year corn yields [03:56], [04:00].
• In Cresco, IA, Darrick Burnikel reported better-than-expected corn yields with grain moisture dropping below 20%, alongside promising soybean results [04:24], [04:31].

Trade ideas

None stated. The presenter did not put forward specific directional trade recommendations, focusing strictly on regional yield checks, moisture levels, and harvest progress.

Levels and data cited

• September rainfall: Nearly 10 inches (Matt McCarthy, NW Iowa).
• Soybean yields: 65 to 85 bpa (Matt McCarthy, NW Iowa).
• Farm average soybean yield: 62 bpa; harvest running 10% above average (Chris Schenk, Mankato, MN).
• Corn yields: 225 to 240 bpa; running 15 to 20 bpa above APH (Matt McCarthy, NW Iowa).
• Corn harvested: 500 acres completed before switching to beans (Pat Sheldon, Percival, IA).
• Corn moisture levels: 106-day corn at 15.5%–15.8%; 113-day corn at 17%–18% (Matt McCarthy); under 20% (Darrick Burnikel, Cresco, IA).

Risks and what would invalidate this

• Crop quality degradation: Soybean quality issues including white mold, purple seed stain, and sprouting in the pod, alongside ear molds in corn driven by the wet September.
• Weather and fieldwork: Persistent or renewed rain events stalling harvest progress, particularly noted in western Iowa border regions.
• Agronomic stress: Mid-season moisture deficits (July/August heat) and mild standability issues affecting corn stalks.