Takeaway

The presenter argues that natural gas is demonstrating upward momentum supported by strengthening LNG demand and technical support, though near-term weather models remain conflicted. While US November futures (NGX26) are pushing through initial resistance, European market tightness—underpinned by weak regional storage and muted Qatari output amid Strait of Hormuz conflict—presents significant upside fundamental risk heading into winter.

What the presenter said

• Natural Gas Nov 26 futures (NGX26) were trading higher, up 5.9 cents (+1.9%) with RSI turning to the upside [00:15, 00:24].
• NGX26 tested and held the 13- and 48-period exponential moving averages as support yesterday before staging a late rally to finish flat [00:30, 00:39].
• The daily pivot sits at "3.1540" and first resistance is marked at "3.2170" [00:57, 01:03].
• Thursday's upcoming EIA natural gas storage print is anticipated to be bullish compared to last year's +80 Bcf and the five-year average of +90 Bcf [01:11].
• The April–October strip is rebounding whenever spot levels stretch too far beneath its 50-day EMA [01:45].
• US weather models show split conditions: NOAA 6–10 and 8–14 day outlooks point to below-normal temperatures across New England and the Pacific Northwest, counterbalanced by above-normal warmth across the Upper Midwest and Mid-South [02:17, 02:28].
• ECMWF models project a central US "chimney of warmth" flanked by cold in the Rockies and New England, with colder weather compounding into New England by October 23 [02:51].
• UK NBP futures broke to new highs (+2.72%) with RSI pointing upward [03:48].
• The Strait of Hormuz remains an active war zone, leading to expectations that Qatari production will stay muted through winter [04:03].
• European weather models indicate severe cold entering Germany, the Balkans, and Greece by October 22–23, spreading across Western Europe late-month [04:33].
• Total EU gas storage is 73.8% full (822 TWh), trailing last year's 88.1% and the 5-year average of 83.1% [05:10]. Severe country deficits include Germany (60%), Latvia (50%), Netherlands (62%), Belgium (65%), and the UK (35–36%) [05:24].
• Asian temperatures are tracking colder across Mongolia, Korea, and Japan, but warmth is pooling behind the front across former Soviet republics [05:51].
• Tropical systems include Hurricane Twentyeight moving toward Northern Taiwan, 96W tracking toward the Philippines/Taiwan, and Hurricane Simon bringing Pacific moisture into Texas and Louisiana [06:37, 07:03].
• US LNG terminal feedgas operations on October 13: Cameron at 1.463 (capacity 1.560); Creole Trail/Sabine Pass at 1.520; Corpus Christi at 2.610; Calcasieu Pass at 1.747; Plaquemines at 4.133; Freeport stabilizing around 1.750; and Golden Pass Train 1 at 642,288 MMBTU (vs. 800,000–850,000 MMBTU capacity) [08:13–08:48].

Trade ideas

None stated. The presenter did not put forward specific trade structures, maintaining a mixed short-term market bias centered on technical pivots and storage fundamentals.

Levels and data cited

Price Levels: - NGX26 (Nov 26 futures): Currently trading at "3.226" (also referenced as "3.230" in session coverage) - NGX26 Daily Pivot: "3.1540" - NGX26 First Resistance: "3.2170" - April–October Strip: Trading at "2.9930" vs. 50-day EMA at "3.0270"

Data Points Cited: - EU Underground Gas Storage: 73.8% full (822 TWh) vs. 88.1% (714 TWh) last year and 83.1% (948 TWh) 5-year average (KYOS). - National EU Storage: Germany 60%, Latvia 50%, Netherlands 62%, Belgium 65%, UK 35–36% (entsog). - Qatar LNG Activity: Single tanker loading at Ras Laffan (MarineTraffic). - Atlantic Basin Cyclones: 0% chance over 7 days (NHC).

Risks and what would invalidate this

• Conflicting and uncertain medium-range weather models as November draws near.
• Sustained regional supply constraints should Qatari output remain restricted due to conflict in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Severe European supply deficits heading into cold snaps due to low storage inventories across Germany and the UK.